The most prominent elections that observers are focusing on in 2025 are New Jersey Governor, New York Mayor, and Virginia Governor. In Virginia, there are also two other statewide races in contention – for Lt. Governor and for Attorney General.
Here is my latest update for each of these races:
New Jersey Governor: Tilt D (But an Upset Is Very Possible)
The RCP average still has Democrat Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill leading Republican former state legislator Jack Ciattarelli, 48.1 percent to 44 percent. But Sherrill’s numbers are boosted by at least one poor polling outfit that has a bad habit of underestimating the GOP vote. In fact, once again, there seem to be different groupings of polls, with Emerson, Quantus, and Trafalgar showing a close race while the others – including the poor poll I mentioned – showing Sherrill up by 5 points or higher.
Otherwise, Ciattarelli seems to have the BIG MO. He has been endorsed by nearly a dozen prominent local and state Democrat officials. It is widely expected that the Lakewood Vaad, a Haredi Jewish group, will endorse him as well, which is a reversal from four years ago, when it endorsed Gov. Phil Murphy. And this is important because Haredi voters tend to vote in a bloc. Labor unions that supported Murphy before are switching to Ciattarelli. The Democrats are increasingly concerned about the turnout in the black community, which in the 2024 races showed a willingness to vote Republican. There is a similar concern with Hispanic voters, and there are a number of stories of Hispanic voters shifting Republican.
The realignment in New Jersey is also moving along; there has been a net gain of over 163,000 Republican voters.
All the salient issues seem to favor the GOP – taxes, schools, energy costs, and cultural values (e.g., the “trans issue” and crime).
Meanwhile, Sherrill continues to be a poor candidate. Even Politico, and the Democrats (but I repeat myself), are worried that she is playing it too safe by avoiding the real issues and only campaigning on her military background--and against Donald Trump.
The Democrats will have a narrow edge in spending. Although Ciattarelli has spent $12.6 million to Sherrill’s $11 million, Sherrill has $6.3 million in cash on hand left, which is $2.6 million more than Ciattarelli. And outside groups have favored Sherrill, devoting at least $12.2 million to her, compared to at least $7.3 million for Ciattarelli. The Democratic Governors Association (DGA) has spent $12.1 million for Sherrill, while the Republican Governors Association (RGA) has spent $7.3 million for Ciattarelli.
Of note, actor Kelsey Grammar is narrating an ad for his home state candidate, Jack Ciattarelli.
New York Mayor: Solid Mamdani (If There Is No Consolidation)
There has been a lot of action in this race, but in the end, not much has changed.
Democrat Mayor Eric Adams has endorsed former Democrat Governor Andrew Cuomo, running as an independent (although Adams is still on the ballot as an independent). But radical Muslim socialist (if not communist) and antisemite Zohran Mamdani, who won the Democrat primary over Cuomo, is still the favorite. And Hakeem Jeffries, the House Democrat Minority Leader, has bowed to his left-wing base to endorse Mamdani.
Overall, the RCP average has moved slightly towards Cuomo. Mamdani is at 47 percent to 29.8 percent for Cuomo and 16 percent for Republican Curtis Sliwa. Polling also shows that leftist white, highly educated voters and foreign-born voters are giving Mamdani his lead.
In the last debate, Cuomo and Sliwa went after Mamdani fiercely. Cuomo hammered Mamdani as someone who had never had a real job and who had the worst record of missed votes in the legislature. Cuomo hit Mamdani on his antisemitism. Sliwa had a good line against both - “Zohran, your resume could fit on a cocktail napkin and Andrew, your failures could fill a public-school library in New York City.”
Mamdani continues to flagrantly show off his radicalism. He staged an appearance with the 1993 WTC Bombing 'Unindicted Co-Conspirator' Siraj Wahhaj. Mamdani also whined about how the 9/11 attacks “harmed” his aunt, bringing to life the Norm Macdonald joke.
The situation is so dire among my community of American Jews that more than 1,000 U.S. rabbis – including Orthodox, Conservative, and Reform – have joined a letter decrying Zohran Mamdani.
Ad spending seems to be solidly anti-Mamdani. But Mamdani seems to be benefitting from TikTok, which is steering users in his direction. (The Chi-Coms, perhaps?)
Unfortunately, as my RedState colleague Ward Clark has written, a necessary step to derailing the Mamdani train would be for the Republican Sliwa to stand down from the race (although he too cannot be removed from the ballot). But this is very unlikely. And it is not the only step required. Cuomo has run a poor race so far, and in particular, has given the GOP no reason to support him.
God help New York City.
Virginia Governor: Likely D Governor; Lean D Lt. Governor; Lean R Attorney General
In Virginia, Democrat former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger faces off against GOP Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears. The polling here hasn’t changed - the RCP average has Spanberger up 50.7 percent to 43.6 percent.
Like Sherrill, Abigail Spanberger has proven to be a terrible candidate. I cannot believe that she prepared for a debate without planning some sort of cogent answers for the inevitable Jay Jones and “trans issue” questions. But unlike in New Jersey, her state is more solidly Democrat, especially during a year when the incumbent president is a Republican.
The Jay Jones scandals have dramatically altered the Attorney General’s race, but it was always a stretch to believe that they would also substantially affect the governor’s race.
Worse, the Democrats are heavily outspending the GOP in this race. Spanberger has raised $41 million, versus only $17 million for Earle-Sears. The DGA “has sunk $5 million into Spanberger’s campaign. She has also received help from Vote Vets, a Washington D.C.-based liberal nonprofit that has spent $1.5 million on TV ads.” Earle-Sears has only received a $500,000 check from the RGA.
And if any state shows a backlash to the GOP for the government shutdown, federal government worker- heavy Virginia will be that state.
In the Lt. Governor’s race, despite having a huge funding edge, Democrat state senator Ghazala Hashmi, another radical Muslim leftist, has consistently held only a narrow polling lead over John Reid, the Republican candidate who doesn’t even have enough money to run commercials. Reid, the first gay statewide nominee, has even picked up a prominent cross-party endorsement.
Finally, in the Attorney General’s race, following the October Surprise, and more recent news that a special prosecutor is investigating Democrat Jay Jones for his “lesser” scandal, incumbent Attorney General Jason Miyares has established a RCP polling average lead over Jones at 46.4 percent to 44 percent, ahead in seven of the eight most recent polls, and only trailing in the one done prior to the surprise. Miyares also has a significant financial edge, and the Republican Attorneys General Association is substantially outspending its Democrat counterpart.
Coming soon – my final predictions. Stay tuned!
Editor’s Note: The Schumer Shutdown is here. Rather than put the American people first, Chuck Schumer and the radical Democrats forced a government shutdown for healthcare for illegals. They own this.
Help us continue to report the truth about the Schumer Shutdown. Use promo code POTUS47 to get 74% off your VIP membership.
Join the conversation as a VIP Member