We've seen this show before, but here we are again: There are indications that Iran and Oman may be nearing a deal over opening the Strait of Hormuz. As usual, there are a couple of catches.
A report from The Times of Israel cites an unnamed United States official:
A US official claimed Friday that progress had been made in talks between Iran and Oman aimed at fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
“We expect a deal soon,” a US official said in a statement sent to querying reporters.
US President Donald Trump has been asserting a deal was imminent since Saturday, when he called off a major military strike against Iranian energy sites.
“Once a deal is announced to restore commercial shipping without impediments, the US will lift the blockade of Iranian ports,” the US official said.
“US actions will continue to be performance-based and tied to Iran’s implementation of its commitments,” the official added.
Iran and Oman hold the east and west banks of the Strait of Hormuz, respectively, but the Strait has long been considered international waters, free for passage. It's not clear what exactly any such deal between Iran and Oman may include.
Agreement between the two countries over control of the strategic waterway is seen as crucial to a wider agreement to end the conflict that began with U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran on February 28.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Iran and Oman were “very close” to agreement on a new shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz but that reopening the strait depended on other conditions, including U.S. compensation to Iran.
That last bit may be the Baby Ruth bar in the swimming pool. It seems certain that the Trump administration, from the president on down, will agree to compensation to Iran when domestic swine take unaided to the skies, and if that's going to be a sticking point for Iran, this may be yet another deal that falls through.
There's another complication:
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards also said on Saturday that re-opening the Strait of Hormuz depended on Washington accepting Iran’s conditions and was not related to the Iran-Oman negotiations.
Guards spokesperson Hossein Mohebbi did not specify the conditions but said Washington must stop interfering in the regional negotiation process.
This would seem to indicate two things: The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) are pulling most, if not all, of the strings in Iran right now, and they are insisting that the United States must butt out of any deals between Iran and Oman. That, again, doesn't seem likely.
President Trump almost certainly won't accept any deal that includes either Iran or Oman charging any kind of toll on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Nor will he agree to any compensation for Iran, which would certainly be used not for the benefit of the Iranian people but for buying and building more weapons. And, once more, they cannot be relied on to keep any deal they agree to. They simply won't.
So, again, we see murmurings of a deal. Again, we see Iran offering to "open" the Strait of Hormuz if the United States agrees to conditions that the Trump administration will never accept. Again, we see Iran doing what we can only view as playing for time - and time works for them. They are playing the long game, and that has historically been something they have been pretty good at.
Editor's Note: For decades, former presidents have been all talk and no action. Now, Donald Trump is eliminating the threat from Iran once and for all.
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