The Fundamentals Favor the GOP in the New Jersey Governor’s Race

Although I have already written a column focusing on the New Jersey governor’s race, among others, the campaign merits further exploration.

In New Jersey, the Democratic nominee is three-term Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill, and the Republican nominee is Jack Ciattarelli, a former state legislator. Although I currently have this race rated at Tilt D, I would not be surprised to see a Republican victory here. This is because of the following factors: 1) Sherrill is mistake-prone; 2) Ciatterelli comes across as a stronger candidate; 3) the national issues seem to favor the GOP; 4) the New Jersey issues seem to favor the GOP, and 5) New Jersey political history favors the GOP.

The campaign funding for this race has been relatively even. There is a public matching fund system, and as of September 19, Ciattarelli has received $8,139,272 in public matching funds, while Sherrill has received $8,711,504. Further, the other players will spend millions more.

Sherrill is Mistake-Prone

Sherrill has come off a hellish few weeks of publicized "scandals" and "gaffes." They include: a) her stock market swindle; b) the first Naval Academy Scandal – her; c) the second Naval Academy Scandal – her hubby; d) the third Naval Academy Scandal – her kids; e) her two-faced actions on Charlie Kirk; and f) her vacuity on video. My RedState colleague Jennifer Oliver O'Connell has covered most of these in some depth.

There is also an earlier minor flub, (g) where Sherrill claimed on Twitter/X her grandfather was a B-52 bomber pilot in WWII, despite the fact that the B-52 did not exist until after the war; Sherrill later claimed a typo.

All these mistakes strike me as easy for the voting public to understand, and potentially dangerous.

Ciatterelli Seems to be a Stronger Candidate

Ciatterelli seems to be a stronger political candidate for New Jersey than Mikie Sherrill. He has lived in the state all his life, has the correct accent, and has an Italian American background. Sherrill is originally from Virginia and moved to New Jersey as an adult. Ciatterelli has run three statewide races, and in each race, he improved upon his earlier performances. In 2021, he only narrowly lost to the incumbent Democrat governor.

Now, sometimes, a candidate who runs repeatedly and loses repeatedly develops many negatives. But so far, we have not seen this with Ciatterelli.

The National Issues Seem to Favor the GOP

As RedState has reported, nationally, the GOP outperforms the Democrats on most of the key issues. As I have written before, because of TDS, they continue to take the unpopular side on many of the "80/20" wedge issues. As a result, nationally, and in New Jersey, the Republicans are and can be expected to campaign on: a) the crackdown on illegal immigration; b) soft-on-crime policies in left-wing-run big cities; c) “trans issues”; d) other DEI issues; e) and even the radicalism of Zohran Mamdani.

Sherrill is proving to be a good target for Republican attacks. She is on video pushing “an LGBTQ education into our schools” without allowing parents to opt out. And recently she made a stink about military standards being too tough for women. Both DEI issues only appeal to left-wingers and not to the independents or moderate Democrats Sherrill needs to win the governor's race in New Jersey.

Meanwhile, Sherrill has condemned Ciatterelli for being an ally of Donald Trump.

The New Jersey Issues Seem to Favor the GOP

This year, the state tide is working against the Democrat Party, because, in governors’ races, after a certain number of years, the “in” party begins to “own” the state’s problems. The overriding state problems are rising property taxes, rising energy prices, the sales tax, and rising crime. Ciattarelli has argued that continued Democratic governance has wreaked havoc on property taxes and that Sherrill backs energy policies similar to those of the current governor, which have harmed residents and saddled them with high utility bills.

Meanwhile, Sherrill has attacked Ciattarelli on raising the sales tax, which he has claimed was a misrepresentation.

New Jersey Political History Favors the GOP

Despite the Democrat lean of the state in the presidential races, which is receding, New Jersey has had a long pattern of ousting the incumbent party from the governorship after 8 years. This started post-1961.

And it gets worse, as the 1961 race may be distinguished. That year, Democrat Richard Hughes won a 50.3%-48.7% upset over Republican James Mitchell. Mitchell may have partly lost because he broke his leg, which severely hampered his campaign. But Hughes also won his party’s nomination by acclamation as the candidate of the local party bosses. As a result, “Hughes was a nearly universally well-liked candidate with virtually no negative baggage.” By contrast, Mitchell captured his nomination after a spirited and bitter primary, where he was initially the underdog. Mitchell was backed by liberal national Republicans, while his primary opponent was backed by more conservative local bosses and other state Republicans. And in the general election, many conservative voters either supported a conservative independent or simply stayed home. Further, Hughes seemed to have outspent Mitchell, perhaps substantially.

In 2025, none of these advantages will exist for the Democrat nominee.

Recent Polling Is Shifting Towards Ciattarelli

These five factors may be dragging down Mikie Sherrill. The RCP average today shows only a 4.3-point gap, with 48 percent going for Sherrill and 43.3 percent for Ciattarelli. This is down from last week’s gap.

As in the 2024 presidential election, the individual RCP polls are showing quite divergent results. The Fox News and Quinnipiac polls show a large Sherrill advantage, while the Quantus Insights and Emerson results show a dead heat. In 2024, we saw that Quantus was most accurate, Quinnipiac had a large Democrat bias, while Fox and Emerson were in the middle. So, we can anticipate that there may still be some overall Democrat bias, presumably caused by the “irrational exuberance” problem.

It is also a big positive that most polls show the GOP candidate ahead two-to-one among independents. And that the Democrats are increasingly frightened that they may see a loosening of their strong support from their most loyal blocks in the state, the labor unions, blacks, and other minorities.

Whatever happens, history shows that this race will be close. But I am increasingly optimistic that it will also end with a GOP victory.

Editor’s Note: The Schumer Shutdown is here. Rather than put the American people first, Chuck Schumer and the radical Democrats forced a government shutdown for healthcare for illegals. They own this.

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