Putin's War, Week 111. Russian Offensive Grounds to a Halt and Ukrainian Refinery Attacks Pause

By streiff | 12:02 PM on April 12, 2024
The opinions expressed by contributors are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of RedState.com.
AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky, File

As Week 111 of Putin's War draws to a close, it's time to look at the week that was. These are the big themes.

Strategic incoherence. The US continues to pursue one of the most incoherent foreign policies of my lifetime regarding Ukraine. The Biden national security apparatus is taking on many of the worst qualities of the George H. W. Bush administration during the implosion of the USSR. Its obsession with propping up a failed empire and trying not to hurt feelings is getting in the way of reacting to a world that has changed forever. It also seems to want to retain an open door with Russia so it can resume talks on a new nuclear deal with Iran using Russia as our interlocutor. The slow-rolling of military aid to Ukraine is becoming so obvious that even Biden's fluffers in the media can't hide it. The insistence that Ukraine structure its war efforts to keep oil prices low to help Biden's reelection is crass and bizarre. When you reach the point where the French are sounding bellicose and principled, you may want to reconsider what you are doing.

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Increased Pressure for Military Aid. Russian strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure combined with a drumbeat of reports of ammunition shortages are ramping up the pressure on NATO, the EU, the UK, and the US to step up support. We've seen a lot of movement in Europe, and the word is that Speaker Johnson will allow a vote on the Ukraine aid bill next week. And no, this will not result in him being removed as Speaker. What is sad is that about $3 billion remains in Presidential Drawdown Authority; there are hundreds of thousands of artillery rounds and missiles that are on the verge of being sent off for "demilitarization," there are depots filled with vehicles that the US will never use again. And rather than do the easy, righteous thing, Biden, Austin, and Sullivan have chosen to deliberately increase the civilian death toll and the damage to civilian infrastructure in Ukraine for reasons that one can only speculate about. To reiterate, because some folks never seem to get it, Europe contributes more military aid to Ukraine than the US. Europe contributes exponentially more economic and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine than the US. Europe has stepped up in the face of this threat; the question for the US is, are we willing to stand by our friends, or is Afghanistan the American model in foreign policy?

Here are some of my past updates. 

Putin's War, Week 110.

Putin's War, Week 109. Russian Offensive Jammed Up While Ukraine Funding Logjam Breaks

Putin's War, Week 108. Moscow Under Attack and Congress's Struggles Continue

Putin's War, Week 107. Macron Goes for the Jugular, Johnson Goes for Broke, and Scholz Goes for a Drink

Putin's War, Week 106. Putin Faces Reelection, Nuland is Out, and the Czechs Find Artillery Ammunition 

Putin's War, Week 105. Sweden Prepares to Be Heard

Putin's War, Week 104. Second Anniversary of the 72-Hour Special Military Operation

Putin's War, Week 103. Avdiivka Abandoned

Putin's War, Week 102. Zaluzhny Is Out, Syrsky Is In, and the Ukraine Aid Bill Advances

Putin's War, Week 101. How to Not Fire Your Commanding General and the EU Approves Massive Aid Package

For all my Ukraine War coverage, click here.

Politico-Strategic Level

Toldja

A couple of weeks ago, I posted about the Biden national security cabal pressuring Ukraine to cease its attacks on Russian oil refineries because of a fear that this will increase world oil prices during an election year. Among the Foreign Policy SmartSet™, this is called "strategy." In the comments, someone chastised me for pushing a story that was obviously wrong because, according to the argument, we'd never do something like that. (Still waiting on that apology, Scooter.)

BACKGROUND:

Putin's War, Week 109. Russian Offensive Jammed Up While Ukraine Funding Logjam Breaks

White House Tells Ukraine to Stop Attacking Russian Oil Refineries

Here, I'm adding two more data points. First, a widely distributed Congressional testimony by Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin in which he says Ukraine should not attack Russian refineries because of the impact on global energy markets.

The second is more damning. In it, Celeste Wallander, the Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs, is grilled by Georgia Republican Representative Austin Scott on the subject. She responds that the refineries are primarily for civilian use and, therefore, not a legitimate target under the Law of Armed Conflict.

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To call this a bizarre take does not do appropriate honor to the word. It is simply a lie. But this attitude does explain why Ukraine is not doing to Russia's energy grid what is being done to theirs. They fear an aggressive campaign in that area will cost them political support in the Biden White House. And since the story first surfaced, there has been a moratorium on oil refinery attacks.

Even more problematic is the background of the witness.

Germany Begins Sending Troops to Lithuania

I posted on this in an earlier update. NATO troops are filtering into the Baltic States as a tripwire against further Russian adventurism. Russia isn't happy, but no one other than Jake Sullivan cares about that anymore.

Russian Engineering Wipes Out Russian Oil Refinery...and a Lot of Other Stuff

Two dams have collapsed near Orenburg, Russia, causing the evacuation of about 110,000 people, the flooding of the city, and the closure of the Orsk refinery, which processes 90,000 barrels of oil each day. The Russians will ignore the incompetence and corruption that caused the dams to collapse; they will pay no attention to the 100,000+ Russians homeless or the cost of recovery, but they can't ignore the shutdown of the refinery.


 Oddly enough —

Russia Fears Gasoline Shortage

Even with this deal, this can have a limited impact on the Russian domestic market. If Ukraine is not bullied into stopping its campaign against Russian refineries, gasoline will only be available to the Russian military and in larger Russian cities.

For the history of this disaster, read the thread below.

Attacks on Ukrainian Infrastructure Continue

Even though the US insists that Ukraine striking Russian oil refineries is out of bounds, there is not a peep about Russian strikes on energy infrastructure that provides heating to entire cities.

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It is hard to tell what is at play here. Is this a tit-for-tat response to Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries? Or is it a way to ratchet up public pressure on the Ukrainian government to redeploy air defense assets to protect power plants and leave critical defense infrastructure unguarded?

Still Banging That Drum

I don't think I've ever seen a Russian propaganda gambit, other than the shootdown of Malaysia Air Flight 17 by Russian forces in Donbas, fade as fast as the effort to pin the blame for the attack on the Crocus Concert Hall on Ukraine. But credit where credit is due. The Kremlin is putting on that clown nose and persisting.

BACKGROUND:

Despite ISIS Claim of Responsibility, Russia Blames Ukraine for Concert Hall Attack

US Embassy Warned Russia of Terrorist Attack and Putin Ignored It

NEW: ISIS Claims Responsibility for Moscow Attack in Surprise Twist, Skepticism Follows

The Moscow Terror Attack: Some Initial Thoughts and Impressions

(UPDATED): Terror Attack in Moscow Concert Hall - Multiple Fatalities Reported

Is Russia's Sanction-Busting Backdoor Drying Up?

In ordinary times, one might not give a rip about what goes on in Kazakhstan and be justified. These, however, are not ordinary times. When the first wave of sanctions hit Russia after Putin's criminal invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, exports to Kazakhstan from the EU, UK, and US increased by more than 80%. German exports increased by 140%. It wasn't like Kazakhstan suddenly became an industrialized society. Items that could no longer be exported to Russia were sent to Kazakhstan. From there, they were exported to Russia.

That route is drying up as Kazakhstan banks fear being labeled sanction-busters and shut out of world financial markets.

Problems are mounting for Russian businesses operating in neighboring Kazakhstan, according to a major commercial organization, as historic ties between the two former Soviet nations seemingly fray amid Moscow's war on Ukraine and showdown with the Western world.

Nikolai Dunaev, the vice-president of the Opora Rossii—the All-Russian Non-Governmental Organization of Small and Medium Business—told the Izvestia news outlet on Monday that Russian payments to Kazakhstan are facing mounting delays because local banks fear being targeted by secondary sanctions for doing business with Moscow. Newsweek has contacted the Russian Foreign Ministry by email to request comment.

Payments are reportedly being held up for several weeks while some major banks—such as Halyk Bank, which operates in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Georgia, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan—refuse to process any payments linked to Russia.

Banks in China, Turkey, and the UAE are also ceasing transactions with Russian banks and companies.

This is a significant development. Russia has a resource extraction economy (when I was in college, this was referred to as a "colonial economy"). It imports most of its finished products, and nearly all the electronic components for its defense industry are imported.

WTF, Russia?

At least when we lose a bridge, it's because a container ship collided with it. This one, across a critical rail line in Vyazma, Russia, just gave up the ghost.

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The epic video circulating showing a bridge collapsing under a truck was shot in the Russian Far East in 2018. I'm posting it as a public service.

Russia's H1B Program For Doctors

So far, we've only done this nonsense with IT guys.

Operational Level

The Russian offensive that seemed to be gaining momentum appears to have flamed out. There are sporadic company-sized attacks along the line of contact, but nothing on the scale we saw two weekends ago. Russia continues to grind out small gains but, in my opinion, is doing so at an unsustainable price. 

Russia's focus of operations is at least evenly split between the former Avdiivka Salient and Chasiv Yar, just west of Bakhmut. Were I forced to pick one or the other, I'd say that Chasiv Yar is the new shiny object for the Russian high command.

There is still no sign of an invasion of Ukraine from Russia in the direction of Kharkiv. Likewise, evidence of the massing of Russian troops in the vicinity of Kupyansk and Kreminna in the northern area of operations remains scant.

Iran Unintentionally Supplies Ukraine

Arms and ammunition seized from Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps by US Central Command have been transferred to Ukraine.

This is the second such transfer of captured contraband weapons and ammunition to Ukraine.

New Weapons

Russian Drone-Proof Tank

This vehicle has recently been seen in the Russian forces in Ukraine.

Combat Operations

I've previously mentioned that the Ukrainian Army is very much engaged in force-oriented rather than terrain-oriented operations. By that, I mean their operations are, at this juncture, focused on killing Russians rather than taking terrain. This video is a prime example. A Ukrainian M113 pulls up to a Russian defensive position, blazing away. The troops dismount and clear a section of trench. Then, they un-ass the area. Note that the Ukrainians do not lose any soldiers during the operation. 

In my view, this kind of operation, combined with the Ukrainian Army's increased willingness to give up real estate to preserve combat strength, is distorting some of the reporting on the war. 

The flip side of the coin is this operation by the Russian Army. A single BMP with about a dozen troops appears to be on an operation against a Ukrainian position. At 0:12, you can see a munition of some type drop vertically on the vehicle and explode at 0:13. As they begin to dismount from the disabled BMP at 0:43, they come under small arms fire. 

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In both cases, you see themes I've posted about. This is a veritable moonscape of a battlefield where small groups operate autonomously. Attacks have more characteristics of a Tartar slave raid than modern warfare. Attackers and defenders frequently have no supporting artillery or mortar fire.

Artillery in Action

A Russian unit is demolished by Ukrainian artillery.

Failed Attack

This is a Russian tank-infantry team attacking south of Bakhmut. At 0:43, the lead vehicle hits an anti-tank mine, and the column comes under artillery fire. At 0:59, a tank that tried to bypass the tank previously disabled by a mine discovers the minefield is pretty deep. The strangest happening is at 1:13 when a disabled tank fires a main gun round into another disabled tank to its front. The angle of the barrel and the lack of autoloader response indicate that a catastrophic fire is raging inside, and the round in the tube has cooked off. At the same time, you see the only survivor, a BMP to the left of the shooting tank, un-ass the area. At 1:33, the area is scoured by DPICM. 

Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures

I Got Nothing

Ukraine Steals Russian Drone-Proof Tank

Upthread, I posted about a new Russian drone-proof tank. The reason closeup pictures are available is because the Ukrainian Army stole one. One of these tanks was disabled during an attack and abandoned by its crew. Ukrainian soldiers managed to surreptitiously repair the tank over the course of a few nights and drive it to Ukrainian lines. The whole story is in this thread.

...And the Drones Come Out to Cut Up What Remains...

Apologies to Rudyard Kipling. Ukrainian drones mop up the remnants of a failed Russian assault. Note that some FPV drones aren't the kamizake variety; they drop their ordnance and return to their operator.

Northern Front

Kharkiv

For a couple of months, we've been told that over 100,000 Russian soldiers are massed in this area. To date, we've seen no evidence that is any longer true, if it ever was. 

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Kupyansk-Kreminna

Donbas

Russia has made some positional gains in several places but has also suffered setbacks (see the video under Combat Operations and TTP for examples). No place seems ripe for a breakthrough, with the caveat that we're dealing with third-party accounts, some of whom have the incentive to lie.

Bahkmut-Klishchiivka-Andriivka

Avdiivka

Southern Front


Zaporizhzhia

Like other areas of the front, the Russians made small gains. This sector remains quiescent and seems to have gone from the focus of the war to a backwater in the space of eight months. Of course, it could be just a quiet area in the Ardennes...

Robotyne-Verbove- Novoprokopivka

Kherson

The situation in this sector remains unchanged.

Rear Areas

Russia

Did They or Didn't They?

The Buyan-class guided missile corvette Serpukhov was gutted by fire while at anchor in Occupied Königsberg on the Baltic. Ukrainian special forces are claiming credit, and the Russians aren't denying it.

What's Next

The question still hanging fire is what is happening with the Russian offensive. As I pointed out last week, the size of the attacks, their relative coordination, and their dispersion along the line of contact were all solid indicators that this was an operation directed by the Kremlin or by the Russian theater commander. That the attacks are winding down this week, but not entirely ceasing hints that the orders are still in place, but the ability is lacking. The spirit is willing, but the body is weak, as someone once said. Have the Russians learned something of the same lesson the Ukrainians learned last summer? Or is this a lull before another wave of attacks? In Clay Blair's The Forgotten War: America in Korea, 1950–1953, he details how UN forces discovered that Chinese Army attacks lasted about three days with a two-week lull afterward because of the primitive nature of the Chinese logistics network. We could be looking at the same effect here.

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Despite what Tucker Carlson's bestie Douglas Macgregor says, it doesn't seem plausible that Russia can launch attacks like they have in the last two weeks and mount a war-ending summer offensive.

If there is no resumption of the large-scale Russian attacks in the next two weeks, I think we can safely assume that they have ceased until much later in the year.

As I've posted before, I think time is increasingly on the side of Ukraine. I believe they will be forced, for political reasons, to launch at least a moderate-sized offensive during the summer to show they can win. European NATO and the EU are regularizing funding and training processes for Ukraine, and the leadership of that coalition is definitely passing from the US to France and Poland. 

Streiff

Former infantry officer, CGSC grad and Army Operations Center alumnus. Also an amateur historian (Colonial America) and a dabbler in historical fiction.
RedState member since 2004. "He would rather pinch off his own head than admit he's wrong" -- Daily Kos. Follow me on Twitter. 

Read more by Streiff
Tags: RUSSIA UKRAINE PUTIN'S WAR

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