Putin's War, Week 107. Macron Goes for the Jugular, Johnson Goes for Broke, and Scholz Goes for a Drink

By streiff | 11:21 AM on March 17, 2024
The opinions expressed by contributors are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of RedState.com.
CREDIT: Freepik.com

Russians go to the polls this weekend to reelect Vladimir Putin to a fifth term as president. a post he has held since 2000. Spoiler Alert: He wins. While that is going on, the US and, to some extent, Europe struggles to find its collective ass using both hands.

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The Ukraine foreign aid supplemental seems headed for a vote sooner rather than later. There are too many members who want action, and the last thing Johnson wants is a food fight that he could lose. 

BACKGROUND: House Foreign Affairs Chairman: Speaker Johnson Will Have to Move Ukraine Aid Bill 

For a rundown on the different pieces, I recommend this story. The way forward seems to be separate bills for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. Johnson seems intent on pushing the Trumpian idea of a loan that can be forgiven.

BACKGROUND: Donald Trump Offers Speaker Johnson a Fig Leaf of Respectability on Ukraine-Israel-Taiwan Aid Package

Given the nature of US aid, I'm not sure how creating a loan applies to very much of the bill. The most likely outcome is that Johnson's bill gets amended once it is introduced. 

The Biden White House has been using Ukrainian lives to up the ante on the aid bill to get what it wants. Apparently, the stench of that got too much even for Jake Sullivan. The White House announced it is approving another $300 million under Presidential Drawdown Authority. Biden and his midwits still have about $3 billion in PDA available from 2024 appropriations, but for the sake of political oneupmanship, they are not using it. Notably, ATACMS missiles will be in the new package.

Meanwhile, some interesting stuff is happening in Europe. Olaf Scholz is in a difficult political position over transferring Taurus stealth cruise missiles to Ukraine. A classified phone call intercepted by Russian intelligence due to the unbelievable stupidity of one of the participants created a crisis for Scholz.

BACKGROUND: How a Russian Intelligence Coup Has Upset Germany's Politics and Its Relations With NATO Partners

Scholz, who was a pro-communist student activist, seems paralyzed to the point of losing sphincter control over the idea of offending Russia. His government ministers seem inclined to go with the transfer. Nothing in this episode makes Scholz or Germany look like a reliable ally against Russian aggression. The plan that seems to have the best chance is for Germany to send the Taurus to Great Britain. Great Britain will backfill the Storm Shadow reserves it sends to Ukraine with Taurus. I'm not sure how that makes Scholz feel better about "escalation," but whatever.

Whether through an industrial-strength infusion of testosterone and a testicle transplant or political opportunism, French President Emmanuel Macron is emerging as the leader of resistance to Russian aggression in Europe.

RELATED: France's President Strikes Back at Persistent and Totally Unfounded Rumors That His Wife Is Transgender

French President Emmanuel Macron reiterated Thursday, March 14, his position that sending Western troops into Ukraine should not be ruled out – though he said today's situation doesn't require that. But calling the conflict in Ukraine "existential for our Europe and for France," Macron said anybody advocating "limits" on aid to Ukraine "chooses defeat."

In an interview on French national television, Macron said a Russian victory in Ukraine "would reduce Europe's credibility to zero," and would mean that "we have no security."

Speaking on TF1 and France 2, Macron was asked about the prospect of sending Western troops to Ukraine, which he publicly raised last month in comments that prompted pushback from other European leaders. "We're not in that situation today," he said, but added that "all these options are possible."

Macron said that responsibility for prompting such a move would lie with Moscow – "It wouldn't be us – and said France would not lead an offensive into Ukraine. But he also said, "Today, to have peace in Ukraine, we must not be weak."

He said that the continent's security was "at stake" in the conflict which he said "is existential for our Europe and for France." He added that "if the situation should deteriorate, we would be ready to make sure that Russia never wins that war."

He said there had been "too many limits in our vocabulary" since the Russian invasion in February 2022. "Two years ago we said we would never send tanks. We did. Two years ago, we said we would never send medium-range missiles. We did," he said. "Those who say 'let's not support Ukraine' do not make the choice of peace, they make the choice of defeat," he added.

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As always, Trump dominates just about any stage. On March 8, Hungary's Viktor Orban, who, along with Slovakia's Robert Fico, emerged as Putin's advocate and stalking horse inside NATO and the EU, met with Trump at Mar-a-Lago. According to Orban, Trump pledged to end all US aid to Ukraine.

Given Trump's insistence that Ukraine aid be a "loan," I'm not sure what "giving a single penny" means. Orban seems to be convinced that all US aid will cease. Trump's team hasn't mentioned the meeting or this pledge.

Here are some of my past updates. 

Putin's War, Week 106. Putin Faces Reelection, Nuland is Out, and the Czechs Find Artillery Ammunition 

Putin's War, Week 105. Sweden Prepares to Be Heard

Putin's War, Week 104. Second Anniversary of the 72-Hour Special Military Operation

Putin's War, Week 103. Avdiivka Abandoned

Putin's War, Week 102. Zaluzhny Is Out, Syrsky Is In, and the Ukraine Aid Bill Advances

Putin's War, Week 101. How to Not Fire Your Commanding General and the EU Approves Massive Aid Package

Putin's War, Week 100. Missing Prisoners, Hungary on the Hotspot, and Shell Hunger Returns

Putin's War, Week 99. Not All Battlefields Are in Ukraine

Putin's War, Week 98.

Putin's War, Week 97. The Missile War Continues 

For all my Ukraine War coverage, click here.

Politico-Strategic Level

Russian Oil Industry Under Attack

Ukrainian drones struck at least four Russian oil refineries in two days.

It struck three Russian oil refineries targeted in the cities of Ryazan, about 130 miles southeast of Moscow; Kstovo, in the Nizhny Novgorod region, nearly 300 miles east of the capital; and Kirishi in Russia’s northwest. The trio of facilities are among Russia’s largest refineries, the source said.

A fourth facility – the Novoshakhtinsky oil refinery in Rostov-on-Don – was also hit, a representative of the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine said Wednesday.

These strikes have reduced Russia's oil refining capability by approximately 10%. Expect this campaign to increase as Ukraine's drone production grows.

Russia Invaded...Again

The Russian Volunteer Corps, Russians who are fighting to overthrow Putin, carried out two ground invasions of Russia. One attack targeted Belgorod Oblast, the other Kursk Oblast. This is far from the first such invasion.

RELATED:

 Putin’s War, Week 65. G7 Calls for War Crimes Trials and Reparations, F-16 Pilots Start Training, and Russia Is Invaded

Russia Evacuates Nuclear Weapons Stockpile as ‘Dissident’ Invasion of Russia Continues

Putin’s War, Weeks 66 and 67. The Offensive Starts

Putin's War, Week 79. Surovikin Line Penetrated as Russia Staggers Toward a '1917 Moment' in Zaporizhzhia 

Militarily, this operation, like its predecessors, accomplished little in terms of ground gained or damage inflicted. The attack was timed to coincide with Russia's "elections" and to embarrass Putin. It also freezes Russian forces along the border to act as a bulwark against any future invasion.

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Medvedev Sets Out Russia's Negotiating Position

Dmitry Medvedev, deputy head of the Russian Security Council, went to Telegram to define Russia's negotiating position.

1. Unconditional surrender of all territory in Ukraine to Russia. 

2.  World bodies (UN) must officially recognize that Ukraine is nazi controlled and the Ukrainian government must then be "denazified". 

3. UN issues statement that Ukraine is not a country and that it also can never align itself militarily with anyone except Russia. 

4. Entire Ukrainian government liquidated, "elections" held. (Under Russian control) for new Parliament. 

5. Parliament votes to pay reparations to Russia. 

6. Parliament passes law that entire territory of Ukraine is unified with Russia. 

7. Parliament dissolves.

If you'll recall, last week, Medvedev showed a notional post-war map of Europe in which Ukraine had been erased.

READ: Putin's War, Week 106. Putin Faces Reelection, Nuland is Out, and the Czechs Find Artillery Ammunition

Given Medvedev's prominence in Russian politics and his closeness to Putin, I think we'd be fooling ourselves to think this is not Russia's long-term intention and it is being used to signal Europe that Russia is not interested in a negotiated settlement that results in less than the February 2022 goals set out by Putin.

Putin Says There Is No Need for Negotiations

Inadvertently, Putin admitted what I and others have said all along. The only way to bring Putin to the negotiating table is to dangle the specter of a military defeat in front of him. This bullsh** of worrying about "off ramps" and "escalation" when Putin is clearly not interested in the first and unable to credibly do the second has increased the length of this war and its destruction. While Putin bears all the responsibility for the start of this war, Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz have much to answer for in how it has been conducted.

Navalny Aide Attacked

The former chief of staff to murdered Russian dissident Alexey Navalny was attacked in Vilnius, Lithuania, on Tuesday. Leonid Volkov had just got into his car when a man, or men, approached the car and bashed in the passenger window. They sprayed Volkov with something like pepper spray and then beat him with a claw hammer. Lithuanian intelligence services attribute the attack to Russian agents. 

“The attack against a FBK member Leonid VOLKOV, carried out on 12 March 2024 in Vilnius, is likely an operation organized and implemented by Russia. The aim of the operation was likely to curb Russian opposition activities related to the upcoming undemocratic Russian presidential elections,” the intelligence agency said in a statement.

Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda said there is “no doubt” the attack was “planned.”

“There is no doubt that such things are planned. Look at the recent increase in desecration of the Lithuanian flag, incidents with monuments,” he said, referring to a string of desecrations of Lithuanian national flags carried out last week.

Authorities in the Baltic country will “assess, investigate and hopefully find the guilty persons,” Gitanas said before going on to make a direct address to his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin.

(Full story.)

I Hate It When That Happens

Robertus' death has been ruled a suicide by hanging.

Russian media reported that shortly before his death, Robertus complained of feeling unwell and asked for headache pills, after which he went to his office.

Quote: "He didn't leave for several hours, Robertus didn't answer his phone. The employees decided to go into his office and found his body. The top manager committed suicide and died of asphyxia. He had worked at the company for about 30 years," the publication writes.

Robertus is the fourth Lukoil executive to die unexpectedly since the war in Ukraine started. Other causes include toad venom, a fall from a sixth-story hospital window, and a heart attack.

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Attacks On Ukrainian Population Centers Continue

One of the hallmarks of Russia's military operations in Ukraine is the deliberate targeting of civilian targets. These are continuing.

Just a few days before this attack, the Russians launched an attack on an apartment building in Odesa.

RELATED: Russian Missile Narrowly Misses Motorcade Carrying Ukraine's Zelensky and Greece's Prime Minister

This has not gone unnoticed. Two weeks ago, the International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants for Lieutenant General Sergei Kobylash, commander of Russia’s long-range aviation, and Admiral Viktor Sokolov, Black Sea fleet commander, for their role in attacking civilian targets.

READ: Putin's War, Week 106. Putin Faces Reelection, Nuland is Out, and the Czechs Find Artillery Ammunition

Russian Exceptionalism

This is just one of those items that gives you a bit of insight into who you are dealing with. Christofor Antonovich von Münnich was an 18th-century soldier-of-fortune who rose to some degree of fame for his success while leading Russian armies against the Ottomans. He was sentenced to death, reprieved, and exiled to Siberia by Empress Elizabeth, the implacable foe of Frederick the Great, and returned to favor by her pro-German successor, Emperor Peter III. I only say that because he's a strange person to use to make the case for God directly governing Russia via Putin.

Putin Blames the 2014 War on Who???

How long until Putin starts sniffing kids' hair and falling up the stairs?

Operational Level

Russian Navy Chief Fired

The head of the Russian Navy has been fired. There is no official word on the reason, but it is probably related to the unfortunate happenings in the Black Sea Fleet.

Combat Operations

The Russian Army has taken the initiative in most sectors. While there are no significant gains, the Russians are making small advances and controlling the tempo of operations. The Ukrainian Army, under its new commander, is placing more of a value on lives and equipment than holding real estate. 

The influx of about 1 million rounds of 155mm artillery ammunition is slowing Russian progress and making it much more expensive.

RELATED: Putin's War, Week 106. Putin Faces Reelection, Nuland is Out, and the Czechs Find Artillery Ammunition

Though the war appears stalemated at this moment, that could change in an instant. The possibility of a Russian breakthrough, particularly north of Bakhmut and in the Avdiivka area, remains a possibility. I don't see how the current Russian Army could turn a tactical breakthrough into one of operational significance, but the political effect would be substantial. By the same token, I think the Russian Army is much more fragile than realized. The 2022 Russian Army is either dead or sitting legless on a street corner begging for kopecks. The mobilized troops arrive in theater with gear purchased for them by family and friends after receiving a few days of training. I'm with Mike Ford in saying that barrier troops and summary executions can't keep troops in the line at the rate of losses the Russians are incurring. Something has to change or else a very unpleasant event awaits the Russian Army.

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Lost or Not Lost?

There was a nasty little argument on social media last week over a video released by the Russian Ministry of Defense that showed, according to the Russians, the destruction of a Ukrainian S-300 surface-to-air missile system. The "OSINT," or "open source intelligence" gurus weren't happy with that and quickly debunked the Russian military claim, saying it was a Patriot system. You can get a flavor from the thread below.

This is my take. I don't know what the system is, but I think we have to give some deference to the Russian claim because they've claimed to have killed several Patriots, and I don't know why they'd have passed this one up. It would be unfortunate, but not a surprise, if this were a Patriot because they are being deployed closer to the front than doctrine would recommend to deny airspace to the Russian Air Force. As an aside to this kerfuffle, it is sad that a clear majority of the OSINT accounts are only interested in chasing social media clout. Instead of working collaboratively to cut through bullsh**, they spend more time trying to trick-f*** one another in hopes of getting more attention. Well over 90% are pig ignorant of anything to do with military operations and aren't above just making things up for clicks. I'll be so happy when this war is over because one of the side effects will be me blocking these accounts.

Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures

Ammo Resupply Gone Wrong

At the Krynky bridgehead in Kherson, a Russian tank was packed with ammo and sent forward on an ammunition resupply mission. 

Inside and Outside

This is the first video set I've seen that records the action from overhead and from FPS view. Here, a Ukrainian Bradley engages a Russian BTR-80 armored personnel carrier near Avdiivka. The first is the view from above.

Though not explicitly linked to it other than by place and date, I think this is the same engagement from inside the Bradley based on the sequence of events.

Wrong End of a HIMARS Strike

This video is taken from the perspective of a Russian crew member of an S-400 missile system. They are under attack by HIMARS and attempting to intercept the incoming missiles. Unfortunately, the S-400 cannot defeat maneuverable missiles like those fired from HIMARS.

Drone vs. Drone

This is a Ukrainian FPV drone taking out a Russian ground resupply drone. Think about that for a moment.

Northern Front

Kharkiv

The line is stable, but there is active combat. The Russians made minor territorial gains. The Russian attack seems focused on the area around Ivanivka (lower right of the map).

Donbas

Bahkmut-Klishchiivka-Andriivka

Combat remains intense, but there have been no significant changes in the line of contact. 

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Avdiivka

Though no significant territorial gains were made, this is obviously one of the main efforts of the Russian Army. 

Southern Front

Zaporizhzhia

Robotyne-Verbove- Novoprokopivka

The lines remain stable. The Ukrainians took back some of the ground they gave up in the city of Robotyne two weeks ago, and the intensity of fighting in this area has dropped off. 

Kherson

Krynky

The bridgehead at Krynky continues to hold. It remains to be seen what effect destroying the Russian operational headquarters will be.

Russian Headquarters Destroyed

The Russian-flagged tanker Mekhanik Pogodin was grounded on the Kinburn Spit as a side effect of the demolition of the Nova Kakhovka Dam last June.

BACKGROUND: Ukraine's Nova Kakhovka Dam Is Blown up Unleashing Widespread Flooding

It has served as the headquarters of the Russian forces in the area, particularly those now attacking the Ukrainian bridgehead near Krynky. The Ukrainian Air Force carried out an airstrike, eliminating it.

The Teplinsky referred to is General Mikhail Yuryevich Teplinsky. Teplinsky is the commanding general of Russian airborne forces and deputy commander of the Joint Grouping of Forces (the Russian troops in Ukraine). If he, as rumored on Russian Telegram channels, was killed, he would be the highest-ranking officer to die in this war thus far.

Rear Areas

Russia

Taganrog Aviation Plant

The Taganrog Aviation Plant, the sole facility for manufacturing the A-50 AWACS equivalent aircraft, is located about 50 miles from the front lines. 

BACKGROUND:

Russia Loses Two High Value Aircraft Near Ukraine and the Theories Abound

Putin's War, Week 104. Second Anniversary of the 72-Hour Special Military Operation 

St. Petersburg

While there has been no claim of responsibility, fires broke out at a warehouse storing rocket and missile components, an unidentified factory and administrative complex, and a power plant broke out on the same day. 

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What's Next

The next month will be critical. I don't think Russia's furious series of attacks is going to produce much beyond a casualty list. Putin can talk of mobilizing 30,000 men per month, but that will barely keep up with replacing the estimated 900 men per day killed or wounded. Unless there is a local collapse of Ukrainian forces, I think the odds of a breakthrough under present conditions, particularly with new ammunition and equipment arriving, are marginal. Contrary to what Putin's fanbois like David Sacks and Douglas Macgregor say, Russia doesn't have a huge population advantage relative to the demands placed on it. Russia has to draft men for all of its services and paramilitary forces spread over 11 time zones, as well as find workers to keep the economy moving, while Ukraine only has to focus on one thing. 

From what I am seeing, the change of command in Ukraine is positive. Trading real estate to save lives and gain time was ingrained in my military education from the earliest days. I'd rather, as George C. Scott's Patton says, not pay for the same real estate twice, but I think force preservation, militarily and politically, has to be a top priority.

Ukraine aid will come up in three formats in the next few weeks. First, there is the current continuing resolution. My prediction is that it will pass, and aid will not be in the form of "loans." Second, there is the stalled foreign aid bill. It, too, will pass. And there will more likely than not be a supplemental defense bill introduced during the summer. Like the others, it will pass. So, the plan of some in Congress to starve Ukraine of aid will not be successful.

The release of ATACMS to Ukraine will generate a new problem set for Russia. The last time they were used, they devastated Russian Air Force assets in Crimea.

BACKGROUND: Russia Claims US ATACMS Missiles Hit Two Airbases in Occupied Ukraine

In the next three months, the Ukrainian Air Force should field F-16 and possibly Gripen fighters. This will change the calculus of Russian air support for the Russian Army.

By June, we should be able to tell if Ukraine is ready to roll the dice on another offensive, which may have a more limited scope than last year's efforts. There will be enormous political pressure on General Syrskyi to make something happen before Donald Trump is elected (and I do think he will be), and Ukraine becomes little more than a bone to throw to his most pro-Russian and anti-Ukrainian followers.

We'll also know if the Russian Army can keep up this OPTEMPO without accomplishing very much and continue to function.


Streiff

Former infantry officer, CGSC grad and Army Operations Center alumnus. Also an amateur historian (Colonial America) and a dabbler in historical fiction.
RedState member since 2004. "He would rather pinch off his own head than admit he's wrong" -- Daily Kos. Follow me on Twitter. 

Read more by Streiff
Tags: RUSSIA UKRAINE PUTIN'S WAR

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