Putin's War, Week 101. How to Not Fire Your Commanding General and the EU Approves Massive Aid Package

By streiff | 6:17 PM on February 01, 2024
The opinions expressed by contributors are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of RedState.com.
CREDIT: Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

Welcome back for a summary of Week 101 of Putin's War. Let's start with some music.

The biggest story of Putin's War in Ukraine last week was the palace intrigue surrounding the on-and-off replacement of Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhny. Monday, the rumor started that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had called Zaluzhny to his office and dismissed him. Ukrainian social media went bonkers because Zaluzhny is popular with Ukrainians — he had started organizing a defense against a possible Russian invasion. He was responsible for stopping the Russian "thunders run ski" to Kyiv in its tracks. He's also very popular with the troops because he gets rid of imbeciles, doesn't go in for human wave attacks, and tries to ensure the troops are trained and rotated out of the line for rest. 
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As the day wore on and Zelensky's office did not confirm this change, the story died down but didn't go away. As of today, Zaluzhny is still commander-in-chief.

It has been obvious for at least a year that there is little chemistry between Zaluzhny and Zelensky. Zaluzhny is believed to have some political ambitions and was the most popular public figure in the country; those ambitions could be realized.

REFERENCE: Putin's War, Week 98.

Australian Major General Mick Ryan does a deep dive into the twists and turns in this thread. 

Last week, the apparent shootdown of a Russian Il-76 military transport allegedly carrying Ukrainian prisoners of war was a big story. It isn't this week. Let me bring you up to date. Last week the vatniks were blaming Ukraine for an "own goal" in killing Ukrainian prisoners. As I pointed out, 17 names on the passenger manifest had already been released. Only six bodies were delivered to the morgue in Belgorod. More curious was that the crash site video didn't show any bodies. President Zelensky demanded an international investigation. Putin said, "Nyet, tovarich, we'll do the investigation, trust us."

At this point, there is no reason to believe there were any Ukrainian prisoners on the plane, and the whole incident seems to be a rather silly plan concocted to try to keep the Ukrainians from shooting down Russian planes behind the front lines.

Here are some of my past updates. For all my Ukraine War coverage, click here.

Putin's War, Week 100. Missing Prisoners, Hungary on the Hotspot, and Shell Hunger Returns

Putin's War, Week 99. Not All Battlefields Are in Ukraine

Putin's War, Week 98.

Putin's War, Week 97. The Missile War Continues 

Putin's War, Week 96. Blowback From a Sunk Ship as Russia Launches Largest Missile Attack of the War 

Putin's War, Week 95. The Russian Air Force Takes a Beating as Disease Rips Through the Russian Army

Putin's War, Week 94. Putin Makes Shocker AnnouncementUSnd the War in Washington Goes Into High Gear 

Putin's War, Week 93. General Winter Hits the Brakes, Offensive Postmortems and Funding Fights

Putin's War, Week 92. Ukraine Gets Its Own Divine Wind and With Friends Like China, Who Needs Enemies 

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PutiUSWar, Week 91. Mud and Snow Beats Fire and Steel, and TumbleweeUS Are Blowing Through Sevastopol

Politico-Strategic Level

EU Approves €50 Billion Support Package for Ukraine

The EU has unanimously approved a €50 billion financial support package for Ukraine. This ended Viktor Orban's attention-seeking (I'll not speculate on whose attention he was seeking) obstruction. He vetoed the package in December, causing something of a crisis in the EU. Since then, EU members have discussed strategies for convincing Orban that patience has its limits. A vote is pending to strip Hungary of its voting power in the EU, and a plan was leaked to the Financial Times that shut off EU funding to Hungary.

In the end, it was "money talks and bullsh** walks," and Orban got his mind right and did the correct thing.

Prisoner of War Exchange

Wednesday, Ukraine and Russia completed their 50th prisoner-of-war exchange; 207 Ukrainians were exchanged for 195 Russians. Some of the prisoners have been held for nearly two years, having been captured on Snake Island and at the siege of Mariupol.

Russia's Defense System Hacked

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Ukraine Grain Exports Reach Pre-Invasion Levels

This is rather incredible. A country without a navy has broken a blockade by the Russian Navy and restored grain exports to pre-war levels.

Leave Them Wanting More

For the last couple of months, the Russians have been trying to reduce the Ukrainian salient at Avdiivka. Vladimir Putin was on a Russian talk show. The conversation turned to the war, and Putin updated the audience.

Wow. Nineteen houses. Not bad for four months of work.

Operational Level

Combat operations have ground to a halt. Both sides made minor gains, but there is no evidence of the potential for progress. The Russians continue to attempt offensive operations all along the Northern Front, but the volume of attacks and their ferocity have fallen off.

Black Sea Fleet Loses Another One

Overnight, the Ukrainian Special Operations Directorate carried out a complex attack unmanned surface vehicle attack on the Tarantul-class guided missile corvette Ivanonets. The Ivanonets were attacked and sunk in the roadstead serving Lake Donuzlav on the northwest coast of Occupied Crimea.

At least seven ships of the Black Sea Fleet have been lost to Ukrainian action. This has forced most of the Russian fleet to withdraw to ports on the eastern side of the Black Sea. It has also demonstrated that a naval base in Crimea is untenable. The GLSDB halves the difference in giving Ukraine deep-strike capability because the last thing Jake Sullivan wants is for this war to end. It doesn't have the range of ATACMS, but it has a greater range and striking power than a HIMARS rocket.

Russians Ponder Command Post Losses

As I've reported over the last year, the Ukrainian priority of fires has shifted from the front lines to what the US Army would call "deep battle" targets. One target that is heavily engaged is Russian command posts. This has caused the Russians enough problems that they are studying the problem professionally. This thread shows how devastating the attacks have been. The article he references, "Graveyard of Command Posts," is at this link.

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New Weapons

Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bombs Arrive

A year ago, the US committed to transferring the Ground-Launched Small-Diameter Bomb to Ukraine. The system went through accelerated development, and the White House announced it would arrive in Ukraine as soon as Wednesday. It mates glide wings with the combat-tested small-diameter bomb and straps it onto a rocket motor compatible with the HIMARS. The neat thing about this weapon is they were paid for from previously appropriated funds.

 

REFERENCE: The Next Ukraine Aid Conference Will Reflect a Change in Western Views on the End Game in Putin's War.

Combat Operations

Situational Awareness

In this video, Russians are evacuating wounded soldiers. The vehicle encounters a blazing vehicle in the middle of the road and continues around it at high speed. That burning vehicle had hit a mine. Guess what happens next?

Northern Front

Kharkiv

Kupiansk

Donbas

Bahkmut-Klishchiivka-Andriivka

The Russians made minor gains south of Bakhmut near Klischiivka.

Avdiivka

The lines of the Avdiivka Salient remain unchanged.

Russia Base Camp Attacked

A Russan training facility at Nyzhinia Krynka was attacked, probably by HIMARS. There is no information on casualties.

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This strike is 20 miles north of the camp at Pokrovka that was hit last week.

REFERENCE: Putin's War, Week 100. Missing Prisoners, Hungary on the Hotspot, and Shell Hunger Returns

Southern Front

Zaporizhzhia

Robotyne-Verbove- Novoprokopivka

The Ukrainian Army made small gains near Verbove. Nothing here seems particularly significant.

Colonization Underway

According to the exiled mayor of Melitopol, Russia is in the process of resettling that city with Russians.

I should make that "Russians," as most seem to be Central Asians. The Russians did the same in Mariupos, forcibly deporting over 100,000 Ukrainians and replacing them with people from the Russian Federation. 

This is Putin creating facts on the ground in advance of any negotiation. He's eliminating the native population and replacing them with people who will vote correctly if some bogus referendum is conducted. This will greatly complicate the process of ending the war, and it will make the peace, when Ukraine retakes this city, very ugly.

Kherson

Ukrainian forces made minor advances toward Oleshky. Some Ukrainian armor is reported to have crossed the river.

Rear Areas

Crimea

Cruise Missile Attacks Across Occupied Crimea

The Ukrainian military carried out a series of attacks by Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG cruise missiles across Crimea Thursday. 

As in the past, this wave of attacks was set up on Wednesday when the Ukrainian Air Force took out a radar early warning site at Rozdoine, Occupied Crimea.

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These are the known targets.

The Belbek Airbase outside Sevastopol in Occupied Crimea was one of the primary targets hit. There is no information on damage.

Russia

Oil Refinery at St. Petersburg Hit by Drone Attack

What's Next

If either side launches a serious winter offensive, it can be expected to kick off next month. I don't think Russia has the combat power to do it. Ukraine's attacks on Russian training centers seem calculated to disrupt the training of newly mobilized soldiers. Their focus on deep battle targets will make it difficult to provide logistics, fire support, and command and control. I think the Ukrainians will make opportunistic attacks to inflict casualties and draw out Russian mobile reserves for targeting. I don't think there will be any attempt to gain ground. But I do look for another Ukrainian offensive in late summer/early autumn. I don't think the politics of the situation permit Ukraine to stay on the defensive for a year.

The unknowns still floating about have narrowed a bit since the EU has shown it can keep Hungary's Orban and Slovakia's Fico on the reservation. The US Congress has to sort out how it will address funding operations for the US military in the Red Sea and resupplying Israel and Ukraine. That will happen, but there it won't happen fast. But that may not be all that important. Much of the aid money appropriated last year has yet to reach Ukraine. Biden still has nearly $4 billion available in Presidential Drawdown Authority. And there are many innovative ways for the White House to keep Ukraine in the war without Congress agreeing on anything.

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The dustup between Zelensky and his top commander must eventually be settled. Fortunately, Zaluzhny seems like a patriot more interested in Ukraine's well-being than personal advancement.




Streiff

Former infantry officer, CGSC grad and Army Operations Center alumnus. Also an amateur historian (Colonial America) and a dabbler in historical fiction.
RedState member since 2004. "He would rather pinch off his own head than admit he's wrong" -- Daily Kos. Follow me on Twitter. 

Read more by Streiff
Tags: RUSSIA UKRAINE PUTIN'S WAR

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