Putin's War, Week 109. Russian Offensive Jammed Up While Ukraine Funding Logjam Breaks

By streiff | 11:20 AM on March 29, 2024
The opinions expressed by contributors are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of RedState.com.
CREDIT:Freepik.com

As has been the case for the last six months, the big drivers of Putin's Excellent Adventure have taken place in the political realm as the war has stalemated at this point.

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The big story of the week was the attack on the Crocus Concert Hall in Moscow that left 143 dead — though this count will undoubtedly increase as the wreckage from the fire is cleared — and more than 360 injured. The Russian government is continuing to point the finger of blame at Ukraine despite no evidence to support that allegation and a great deal that discounts it.

BACKGROUND:

Despite ISIS Claim of Responsibility, Russia Blames Ukraine for Concert Hall Attack

US Embassy Warned Russia of Terrorist Attack and Putin Ignored It

NEW: ISIS Claims Responsibility for Moscow Attack in Surprise Twist, Skepticism Follows

The Moscow Terror Attack: Some Initial Thoughts and Impressions

(UPDATED): Terror Attack in Moscow Concert Hall - Multiple Fatalities Reported

The danger facing the Kremlin is that Russia is dependent upon cheap immigrant labor (any of this sound familiar?) from predominantly Muslim Central Asian countries. These were the very people who carried out the concert hall attack. If Russia shuts off the immigration pipeline, it has to replace these workers with potential cannon fodder headed to Ukraine. Making the matter more complicated is that this attack may have a negative effect between Russians and the non-resident immigrant workforce, resulting in social unrest.

During one attack on the Western Ukrainian city of Lvov on Sunday, at least one Russian missile passed through Polish airspace. It appears that Russian mission planners selected a waypoint in Poland to skirt Ukrainian air defenses. The Polish foreign ministry demanded the Russian ambassador's presence for a scolding. Not only did the Russian ambassador refuse to show, he hopped a flight for Moscow.

Frontline NATO nations are now seriously discussing shooting down Russian missiles that violate their airspace or when they come within missile range over Ukrainian territory.

As I mentioned in the last update, the fight over funding Ukraine's defense is coming to a close. The continuing resolution passed last week included $300 million in aid. Speaker Johnson has promised to bring the stalled $96 billion aid bill, which includes $60 billion for Ukraine, to a vote after the House returns from recess.

BACKGROUND:

BREAKING: House Passes $1.2 Trillion Spending Package to Avert Shutdown

Speaker Johnson Tells Colleagues He'll Allow a Vote on the Ukraine Aid Bill in April 

The EU approved €5 billion in aid to the Ukrainian Armed Forces and €4.5 billion in economic and macro-financial aid.

The idea that a Russian victory in Ukraine will lead to a general war in Europe is becoming conventional wisdom. When it gets to the point where France is warning of a potential war, it's serious. 

This is all increasing the impetus in the G-7, US, and EU to seize control of frozen Russian assets to pay for Ukraine's defense and reconstruction. I won't say this is a done deal, but it is very close to being one, and every day the war drags on, the easier the decision to pull the trigger becomes.

RELATED: The West Will Make Russia Pay to Rebuild Ukraine and This Is How That Will Happen

The threat of war has also shaken the European defense industry out of its doldrums and into making serious financial investments in production facilities. 

It is this change of attitude by the EU and European NATO nations that is making ongoing support for Ukraine more certain.

Here are some of my past updates. 

Putin's War, Week 108. Moscow Under Attack and Congress's Struggles Continue

Putin's War, Week 107. Macron Goes for the Jugular, Johnson Goes for Broke, and Scholz Goes for a Drink

Putin's War, Week 106. Putin Faces Reelection, Nuland is Out, and the Czechs Find Artillery Ammunition 

Putin's War, Week 105. Sweden Prepares to Be Heard

Putin's War, Week 104. Second Anniversary of the 72-Hour Special Military Operation

Putin's War, Week 103. Avdiivka Abandoned

Putin's War, Week 102. Zaluzhny Is Out, Syrsky Is In, and the Ukraine Aid Bill Advances

Putin's War, Week 101. How to Not Fire Your Commanding General and the EU Approves Massive Aid Package

Putin's War, Week 100. Missing Prisoners, Hungary on the Hotspot, and Shell Hunger Returns

Putin's War, Week 99. Not All Battlefields Are in Ukraine

For all my Ukraine War coverage, click here.

Politico-Strategic Level

Ukraine's Campaign Against Russia's Oil Refineries Shows Results

In the past few months, about a dozen Russian refineries have been hit by Ukrainian drone attacks. One of the targets was about 450 miles inside Russia. In fact, Ukraine is doing so well that the White House wants Ukraine to back off.

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BACKGROUND: White House Tells Ukraine to Stop Attacking Russian Oil Refineries

The numbers are in.

Russia is now importing gasoline and other petroleum products rather than exporting them.

This is how Vasyl Malyuk, who leads Ukraine's SBU, describes the strategy and the effect.

It makes you wonder why the Biden White House wants Ukraine to stop doing what is working, doesn't it?

Execution of Ukrainian Prisoners Confirmed

This is a "water is wet" story so far as the behavior of the Russian Armed Forces is concerned. 

Turkish Diplomatic Mission Has a Close Call

A Turkish diplomatic mission to Odesa came under Russian missile attack Monday.

This is too similar to the missile attack when the Greek Prime Minister and President Zelensky were in Odesa to think it was an accident.

RELATED: Russian Missile Narrowly Misses Motorcade Carrying Ukraine's Zelensky and Greece's Prime Minister

The Clown Show Continues

Belarusian strongman Aleksandr Lukashenko released a video of him being briefed on how Belarus will seize the Suwalki Gap, a 40-mile strip of Poland and Lithuania that separates Belarus from the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, in case of war with NATO. I don't know if Lukashenko believes this, but no one else does. This is what the Belarusian Army is famous for.

Anyway, here is The Man giving his words of wisdom to a somewhat befuddled staff officer who's thinking, "Is he going to make us execute this plan?"

Russia Continues to Use Elon Musk's Starlink

Even though Elon Musk-owned Starlink says it does not allow Russian forces to use its mobile internet terminals or sell the terminals in Russia, the fact is that their statements are untrue. I've posted before on the documented use of Starlink by Russian troops in Occupied Ukraine when it refuses to allow Starlink to be used to attack targets in Occupied Crimea. Now we have something of an admission by Starlink that it knows Russian troops are using Starlink terminals for combat operations in Ukraine.

BACKGROUND:

Putin's War, Week 102. Zaluzhny Is Out, Syrsky Is In, and the Ukraine Aid Bill Advances 

Putin's War, Week 103. Avdiivka Abandoned 

Putin's War, Week 105. Sweden Prepares to Be Heard

WANTED!

The attack on the Crocus Concert Hall in Moscow by ISIS (or IS-K, if you are nitpicker picking at nits) has presented Russia with a huge problem. Moscow is about 25% Muslim, and admitting that Islamist terrorists are operating there would be quite a black eye for the Putin regime. Instead, the Russian government is blaming Ukraine. The head of the FSB, Aleksandr Bortnikov, has said that Russia will target the head of Ukrainian intelligence in retaliation for the attack.

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Putin Reinforces His Foreign Social Media Influencers

A video like this is not intended for Russian domestic consumption. Take a look and see how many of Putin's points will end up on the social media accounts of Jackson Hinkle, Douglas Macgregor, David Sacks, (sadly) Elon Musk, and several members of the House and Senate.

Operational Level

Three Russian Ships Lost...Four If You Count the "Own Goal."

Sunday, Ukraine unleashed a massive missile attack on Sevastopol. An oil depot and communications center were destroyed as well, and three Russian Ropucha-class LST-type vessels were either destroyed or damaged beyond repair. Two were quickly identified. The third was identified by post-attack satellite imagery. As a bonus, the ship was the Konstantin Olshansky, which was seized from Ukraine by Russia during the 2014 illegal annexation of Crimea.

The Russian SIGINT reconnaissance ship Ivan Khurs was also damaged.

BACKGROUND: Ukraine Sinks Two Russian Ships and Russia Sinks One

Missile Attacks on Ukrainian Cities

The above attack was a decapitation strike aimed at Ukraine's intelligence service, one has to assume, in retaliation for the March 22 attack on a Moscow concert venue.

The Russians used two Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles fired from the Black Sea. Neither of those survived the Patriot missile defenses.

War On Ukrainian Power Supplies Resumes

In what looks to be a direct retaliation for Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries, a new round of attacks on Ukrainian generation capacity is underway. Last week, the Dnipro hydroelectric dam was hit. This week, it is conventional generation plants.

Emergency Supplies?

In the last update, I posted about a new $300 million aid package for Ukraine announced by National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan. I suspect this air traffic is that package plus other munitions heading to Ukraine.

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Europe Continues to Ramp Up Production

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has done more to awaken Europe to the necessity of having a defense industrial base and a deterrent capability than any amount of bluster. France, of all countries, is pulling out all the stops.

Germany continues to lead Europe in revitalizing artillery ammunition production.

A team of Rheinmetall technicians will arrive in Romania in the beginning of August to draw an action plan for the construction of the facility, Oprea said in an interview for news channel Digi24 on Friday.

Romania has been discussing the project with Rheinmetall for two years, he added.

On Friday, the European Commission released a fact sheet showing that the project received 47 million euro ($52.1 million) in EU funds out of ASAP's total budget of 500 million euro. According to the Commission, the programme is expected to help Europe reach a production capacity of 2 million shells per year by 2025. The ASAP ammunition programme is part of a broader 2 billion euro initiative to bolster the EU's defence industry, of which 1.1 billion euro were allotted to research and development projects, the EC said in a press release.

Russian Sabotage Team Arrested

I always treat these kinds of stories with a grain of salt. I'm posting this one because if it is true, it is the first attack by Russia on the main rail line used by Ukraine to bring war materiel from the West.

I Find Your Lack of Faith Disturbing

The Ukrainian drone campaign against targets in Russia is causing casualties in an unexpected quarter. Air defense troops are being punished for drone strikes. Punishments include demotion and being sent to the front to fight.

Kerch Bridge Mostly Closed

The near closure of the Kerch Strait Bridge and the sinking or disabling of Russian Navy ships capable of transporting cargo from Russia to Crimea means that the resupply situation for the Russian Army in Occupied Crimea and Occupied Kherson will become critical. There are vatnik social media accounts that are doing a little happy dance over Russian press releases.

This map ignores three critical points. First, that single rail line has to support the entire Russian Army in Ukraine. Second, a portion of that rail line is within a missile strike by Ukrainian forces. Third, the rail bridges between Crimea and Zaporizhzhia were cut during last summer's offensive and haven't been rebuilt.

This Is the Russian Army!

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Apologies to "300." While Putin and his fellatistas at home and abroad blame Ukraine for the Crocus Concert Hall massacre, the man-in-the-street sees things differently. This is the kind of story that has the ring of truth. We know that homosexual rape is used as a method of punishment in the Russian Army. It isn't difficult to see how a member of an ethnic minority associated with the attack could be victimized, especially in an army where hazing and the existence of a prison-like pecking order called Dedovshchina is a way of life. If this story is true and is widespread, the effects on unit cohesion and discipline will be catastrophic.

New Weapons

Ladoga Command Vehicle

I'm filing this under "new weapons," not because it is new but because this is the first time it has been seen. 

Ladoga – Initially called Debut, this APC is designed for evacuation of Soviet government from Kremlin to airport under nuclear/chemical/biological attack. Ladoga uses tracks from the T-80U as well as suspension system and gas-turbine powerplant. The crew is 2 soldiers. It also has a four-seat cab equipped with a crew life-support facilities to protect the passengers against the radiological, chemical and bacteriological contamination of the environment.

Riverine Artillery

I'm not sure how much sense this makes, as the river is the frontline, but here it is.

Combat Operations

Overview

The tactical situation has remained unchanged since last week. Both sides made some positional gains. The intensity of the Russian attacks in the former Avdiivka Salient seems to have slackened considerably, hinting that the OPTEMPO the Russians have shown for the last two months is not sustainable. Focus has shifted to the area south of Bahkmut.

There are still reports of Russian troops massing in the Kupyansk-Kreminna area in the far north of the line of contact. I remain skeptical. However, if the attack does come, it is difficult to see how even a successful tactical operation transitions into an operational-level breakout because of the terrain and low quality of the road network.

Night Vision Drones

It had to happen. It seems as though FPV suicide drones with night vision capability are becoming common. This is video of a series of drone vs. armor engagements outside Bakhmut.

Golf Carts In the Attack

China has delivered 2100 Desert Cross ATVs to the Russian Army. 

 

Instead of being used as support vehicles, they are increasingly appearing in the assault echelons.

Battle Staff in Action

This rare video shows the battle staff of a battle group (I'm assuming a battalion equivalent force) of the 54th brigade in action somewhere in Donetsk. From the attack's size, I guess this is somewhere in the Avdiivka area. It's long but worth watching.

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 Overall critique: I can't help feeling that this staff runs on "faces, not spaces." In other words, they know each other, and a lot goes on without anything being said. Long-running relationships and organically developed processes are used rather than what we'd call staff procedure. This breaks down when a key person is killed, injured, promoted, or transferred. The captioning leads me to believe they use code names for some locations but not for most. This means that basic things like target reference points aren't designated in advance, and Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield is close to nonexistent. 
 There isn't explicit acknowledgment and repeat-back of commands. When mortar and artillery fire are called for, there isn't a response when the shots are fired ("shot, out") or when they will hit ("splash, out"). They know each other, and their system works for them, but I don't think it is the "plug and play" system they need to have to ensure resilience and isn't exportable to other units.

Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures

JDAM Strike on Russian Headquarters

This headquarters on the left bank of the Dnieper, east of the hotspot of Krynky in Occupied Kherson, was hit by two Joint Direct Attack Munitions. JDAMs are conventional gravity bombs from 500 to 2000 pounds that have been outfitted with guidance, flight, and steering kits to let them be launched from a distance and hit with pinpoint accuracy.

Kherson is an area where Ukrainian close air support is used and where Ukrainian air defense systems have made the skies nearly a no-go zone for the Russian Air Force.

BACKGROUND: Putin's War, Week 42. Ukraine Gets the Nod to Strike Targets in Russia and Some Tools to Do It With

Bomb Strike on Russian Base

This attack also took place east of Krynky in Kherson. It is either a French "Hammer" standoff attack weapon or another JDAM. At 0:11, you can see the bomb just before its impact.

Back To the...Past?

In this video, USAF General James Hecker, commander of USAF Europe, describes the problem posed by drone attacks and an innovative update of a very old technique that is helping Ukrainian air defense troops defeat the threat.

 This is basically where air defense systems were before radar.

Northern Front

Kharkiv

Kupyansk-Kreminna

Donbas

Bahkmut-Klishchiivka-Andriivka

Avdiivka

Southern Front

Zaporizhzhia

Robotyne-Verbove- Novoprokopivka

Kherson

Rear Areas

Crimea

Missile Strikes on Sevastopol

This is video of the missile strike on Sevastopol that wrecked three Russian ships and wiped out an oil depot and military communications center.

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More Friendly Fire

Looks like the antiaircraft guys in Sevastopol aren't taking chances. Thursday, they shot down a Russian Su-27. Some say the pilot ejected and was recovered. I haven't seen an ejection or parachute in any of the videos.

Russia

Novocherkassk Thermal Power Plant Hit By Drones

The power plant is near Rostov-on-Don. According to Russian authorities, the attack took two of the power-generating plants offline.

Drone Attack on Belgorod

There is no information on the target(s) or effectiveness.

What's Next

The activity on the ground indicates we may be entering a "strategic pause." The intensity of Russian operations in Avdiivka has plummeted. There has been an uptick in Russian attacks south of Bakhmut, but these may be more locally initiated, opportunistic attacks to capitalize on previous gains rather than a shift in focus.

What is certain is Ukraine has gone over to a defensive posture. There have been local counterattacks to take back lost ground, but nothing resembling an offensive. They seem content to dig in and beat back Russian attacks. We are seeing fewer videos of Ukrainian armor, which leads to the conclusion that it has been pulled out of the line. As I've said many times, the politics of the situation demands the Ukrainians execute some sort of offensive action this spring.

Russia is also facing a lot of difficult choices. The attacks on oil refineries have hurt Russia's income. Russia's oil is becoming more expensive to move, and financing is more difficult to arrange. Even though Russia has classified virtually all of its economic data, there are many indications that things are not going well. The Black Sea Fleet has nearly been driven from the theater of operations. While there is a lot of talk of mobilization, there is no indication that Putin will take that step because of the damage it will do to Russia's economy. Russia may be able to conscript 300,000 men each year, but they can't all go to Ukraine because of Russia's other commitments. Plus, there is no evidence those men can be adequately equipped — conscripted and mobilized soldiers are forced by shortages to buy their own gear — trained, or turned into functioning units.

Ukraine seems to have weathered the funding uncertainty, and a lot of things are coming together for them. F-16s and Gripens will be in action by summer. The missile blitz on Sevastopol leads me to believe that something has broken free with the German Taurus missile issue. The major political difficulty facing Zelensky is a conscription/mobilization law that has been hung up in the parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, for a year. Ukraine continues to recruit enough men, but it needs a coherent system to create the military it requires to win this war because no one believes Russia will negotiate anything less than the unconditional surrender of Ukraine.

Streiff

Former infantry officer, CGSC grad and Army Operations Center alumnus. Also an amateur historian (Colonial America) and a dabbler in historical fiction.
RedState member since 2004. "He would rather pinch off his own head than admit he's wrong" -- Daily Kos. Follow me on Twitter. 

Read more by Streiff
Tags: RUSSIA UKRAINE PUTIN'S WAR

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