Putin's War, Week 110.

By streiff | 2:39 PM on April 07, 2024
The opinions expressed by contributors are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of RedState.com.
Credit: Hung Quach via Pixabay

Welcome to the latest edition of our update on "Putin's War." It has now been 773 days since the first Russian tank rolled across the internationally recognized border between Russia and Ukraine in an unprovoked and unwarranted attack by a nuclear-armed pseudo-superpower on a much weaker neighbor.

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The Russians are sticking to their narrative that the United States and Ukraine were to blame for the attack on Crocus Concert Hall.

I suppose you have to have a sneaking admiration for guys like David Sacks. It takes an immense ego to perversely stick to an untenable and rather stupid position, despite derision from all sides.

This narrative may turn out to be unique among Russian war narratives as it was obvious that not even Putin believed it, but they felt they had to press forward. It is difficult to see how this changes much of anything, given the Russians are engaged in terror attacks on Ukrainian civilians on a daily basis. What are their options for retaliation that they aren't already doing?

There was a huge kerfuffle over a statement made by Secretary of State Antony Blinken during a meeting with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba at the NATO Foreign Ministers Meeting Thursday. "Ukraine will become a member of NATO," said Blinken, "Our purpose at the summit is to help build a bridge to that membership."

 This had the usual suspects setting their hair on fire and running through the streets screaming, "Armageddon!" My colleague Bob Hoge has the details.

BACKGROUND: Sec. of State Blinken Drops Eye-Opening Statement From Brussels: 'Ukraine Will Become a Member of NATO'

I've come to expect Sacks and a few others to be firmly latched onto Putin's pimply ass to get their talking points, but JD Vance is either dishonestly playing to the lowest possible denominator of the MAGA demographic, or he's too stupid to be in the Senate, and yes, given the history of that august body, that is saying something. [Full disclosure: I was a JD Vance backer in 2022.]

First, Ukraine joining NATO has been US policy for about a year. The "leaders" are the heads of state of NATO countries. This is bigger than Antony Blinken.

Finally, leaders reaffirmed that Ukraine would become a member of NATO and agreed to remove the requirement for a Membership Action Plan. "This will change Ukraine's membership path from a two-step process to a one-step process," the secretary general said. "We also made it clear that we will issue an invitation for Ukraine to join NATO when allies agree, and conditions are met."

Note the date on this tweet.

Second, for Ukraine to join NATO, 100 percent of the current members must approve. It took 20 months for Sweden to join due to internal opposition from Turkey and a last-ditch stand by Putin's MiniMe in Budapest. When Ukraine's membership is put to a vote, it will not be fast and will not happen unless there are government changes in Hungary and Slovakia.

Third, the constant, and I think deliberate, misstatement about what Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty requires shows there is more afoot, at least with guys like Vance, than meets the eye. Article 5 is the collective defense provision in the treaty. This is what it says.

The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognized by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.

Note what it does not say. It doesn't require military action by any member if another member is attacked: "such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force." Just like Section 3 of the 14th Amendment was not "self executing," NATO's Article 5 requires affirmative action by each state before embarking on military operations. That action may be sending ammunition or allowing aircraft overflight rights.

Article 5 fearmongering is the most stupid and dishonest sort of this activity.

While fecal incontinence was the order of the day in Washington, the president of Finland was in Kiev signing a mutual security pact.

This is the eighth such bilateral treaty between Ukraine and a NATO nation. Agreements exist with the UK, Germany, France, Denmark, Netherlands, Italy, and Canada. Spain and Greece are expected to follow soon. The US is in the process of negotiating an executive agreement guaranteeing Ukraine's security.

"We have already started bilateral consultations with your government, with the office of the president, with government agencies, and we are discussing with them what the security commitments on our part could be. So far, there have been two rounds, and the talks will continue: the Biden administration seeks this agreement."

With negotiations ongoing, Brink did not disclose the general structure or potential content of the future agreement. She did, however, emphasise that the US supports NATO membership for Ukraine, and that the security agreement serves as a "bridge to ensure security" until that happens.

"The G7 announced support for security guarantees, bilateral and multilateral, that will be such a bridge," she recalled.

The G7 entered into a mutual security pact with Ukraine in 2023. Since then, Poland and Romania have signed on.

BACKGROUND:

NATO Summit Highlights NATO Unity in Ukraine but Also Reveals Divisions

Putin's War, Week 74. The Crack in the Russian Wall Appears and Ben & Jerry's Employees Join the Russian Army

Putin's War, Week 100. Missing Prisoners, Hungary on the Hotspot, and Shell Hunger Returns

Even Ted Cruz has spoken on the subject.

I would remind everyone that all of this has taken place without World War III scare-porn, and if Ukraine were a member of NATO today, there is no obligation that any nation do more than it is doing right now.

As all of this is happening, the foreign ministers of Germany, Poland, and France released a statement saying that NATO's 2 percent of GDP goal for defense spending is insufficient.

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The U.S. has long taken on more of the burden than the rest of our Alliance. But collective defense is our collective effort. In that respect, we reaffirm the importance of a stronger and more capable European defense — one that contributes positively to global and transatlantic security and is both complementary to and interoperable with NATO.

To take on this greater responsibility for our joint security, we European allies should take the following steps:

First, spending a minimum of 2 percent of GDP on defense is a necessary prerequisite and the very foundation on which we build our collective defense. Our three countries are meeting this goal this year, however these numbers can only be a starting point. We also need to make sure we spend our funds strategically — above all, for developing the forces and capabilities we need for collective defense.

Second, we need to utilize our Continent’s full industrial potential to upgrade our military capabilities, ramp up production and harvest economies of scale. Our national defense industries are key to this. They need binding long-term contracts — with clear timelines, a level of ambition, fixed financial commitments and purchase guarantees from our governments.

Third, we need to invest in future technologies to maintain our technological edge and close capability gaps. Our innovation efforts will help NATO maintain its technological advantage over potential adversaries and strengthen its deterrence and defense.

At some point, I think it will be safe to admit that it is Putin's rapaciousness and not fear of Trump that has driven NATO upgrades in spending and equipment. Probably just not yet.

Meanwhile, the Biden national security team never misses an opportunity to be strategically incoherent. In the last update, I posted about Jake Sullivan and his merry midwits discouraging Ukraine from striking targets inside Russia. This was in the context of Ukraine's campaign against Russian oil refineries.

BACKGROUND:

Putin's War, Week 109. Russian Offensive Jammed Up While Ukraine Funding Logjam Breaks

White House Tells Ukraine to Stop Attacking Russian Oil Refineries

This objection has been reiterated by no less than our secretary of state.

Here is the US Ambassador to NATO, Juliana Smith, on the subject.

In terms of actually going after targets inside Russia, that is something that the United States is not particularly supportive of. We are focused on Ukrainians’ right to defend its territory and to push Russians out of its territory, where the Ukrainians have had considerable success. And again, our objective is to help them continue to see those victories on the battlefield. 

To the guy in the comments who claimed the story had been debunked...I'll accept your apology.

I try not to cover internal Ukrainian politics. While it is easier to write about stuff you don't understand, on the other hand, you look stupid, but clicks are clicks, amirite?

As I noted last week, Ukraine has been trying to create a new conscription law to boost the number of soldiers in the Ukrainian military. This is the point of view pushed by the former Ukrainian commander-in-chief. Working against that is the need for workers to keep the economy functioning. This is the point of view pushed by the Ukrainian business sector. After a couple of years of bickering, a law has passed. The three big changes are that it drops the minimum age for draft eligibility from 27 to 25, it makes physical qualification binary by getting rid of the "partially eligible" category, and it starts the process of developing a coherent and disciplined system for manning the force by creating a database of Ukrainian men starting at age 17.

(Link without paywall.)

The former commander-in-chief had called for the mobilization of 500,000 men. Thankfully, that seems to be off the table. I have no idea how anyone thought that training, equipping, supplying, and effectively using 500k new soldiers was possible, much less a good idea. I offer the same critique of Russia's mobilization process.

Here are some of my past updates. 

Putin's War, Week 109. Russian Offensive Jammed Up While Ukraine Funding Logjam Breaks

Putin's War, Week 108. Moscow Under Attack and Congress's Struggles Continue

Putin's War, Week 107. Macron Goes for the Jugular, Johnson Goes for Broke, and Scholz Goes for a Drink

Putin's War, Week 106. Putin Faces Reelection, Nuland is Out, and the Czechs Find Artillery Ammunition 

Putin's War, Week 105. Sweden Prepares to Be Heard

Putin's War, Week 104. Second Anniversary of the 72-Hour Special Military Operation

Putin's War, Week 103. Avdiivka Abandoned

Putin's War, Week 102. Zaluzhny Is Out, Syrsky Is In, and the Ukraine Aid Bill Advances

Putin's War, Week 101. How to Not Fire Your Commanding General and the EU Approves Massive Aid Package

Putin's War, Week 100. Missing Prisoners, Hungary on the Hotspot, and Shell Hunger Returns

For all my Ukraine War coverage, click here.


Politico-Strategic Level

Interview With Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi

One wouldn't expect to learn a lot from an interview with a senior general during a time of war. Syrskyi does offer some insights that run against familiar narratives. For instance, Ukrainian enlistees aren't sent to the front lines. They go through a basic training program. I think we all knew that and saw it documented over the last year, but pro-Russian accounts love to push the story of Ukrainian troops being treated in the same way Russian troops are.

Rotation of units for rest is emphasized, as is the need to build fortifications. We'll see how all this plays out, but if it happens, it may be because the last guy was making bad decisions and blaming others.

Trust me, I Pinky-Swear

Russian Defense Minister Sergei "the Plywood Marshall" Shoigu is promising men about to be called up in Russia's biennial draft that they won't be sent to Ukraine.

It is doubtful that this is the truth. Ever since Russia annexed the Ukrainian territories where the fighting is taking place, making them part of Russia, it has been legal to send conscripts into combat there. It is very doubtful that there are enough volunteers or prisoners to fill the ranks. Ultimately, the men called up this year will end up fighting in Ukraine.

Russian Influence Operation Exposed

Politico Europe reports that a joint Belgian-Czech investigation has exposed a Russian influence operation involving payola to European Parliament members to push Russian narratives and talking points. Totally unrelated to the story, I wonder what Mick Wallace and Clare Daly are doing today. I wish the FBI had the ambition to stop chasing jaywalkers from January 6 and do something similar.

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Probably Ain't Happening

Dmitry Medvedev's Foreign Ministry has demanded the Ukrainians arrest and extradite Vasily Malyuk for the Crocus Concert Hall attack. Malyuk is the head of the SBU, the direct action arm of Ukraine's Military Intelligence Service.

Ukraine's Black Sea Grain Trade Expands

A year ago, Ukraine needed Russia's permission through the good offices of Turkey to export grain. Now, Black Sea traffic bound for Russia is seeing insurance rates skyrocket, and Ukraine's Danube ports are open for business.

Attacks on Ukrainian Hydroelectric Plants Continue

About 11 percent of Ukraine's electrical generation capacity has been destroyed or damaged. The focus of the Russian missile attacks has been on hydroelectric plants.

Electrical generation is a legitimate military target, as are dams. 

It will be interesting to see if Ukraine launches a retaliatory campaign against Russia's much more dispersed and mostly undefended power grid.

Poland Agrees to Aid Ukraine to Restore Electrical Grid

The relationship between Poland and Ukraine isn't always the best, but the leaders have done a magnificent job of looking past grievances and fostering cooperation.

Russian LNG Plants Cut Production

Russian liquid natural gas plants are scaling back on production. Not from fear of Ukrainian drones or out of some devilish scheme to raise prices, but because US and EU sanctions have finally gotten their crap together, and they are hurting the export market for Russian gas. Gas storage facilities are full, but customers are getting harder to find, as are ship owners willing to carry the cargo. The result is that production has stopped. 

Sauce For the Goose is Sauce For the Gander

One of Putin's operating principles is that Russia is the guarantor of rights for Russian citizens no matter where they are. It's not entirely his idea. Boris Yeltsin used this theory as the rationale for Russia intervening in Moldova to create the AstroTurf statelet of Transnistria. 

As tensions increase in Moldova with Transnistria begging for the Kremlin's help, Romania announced that it had a dog in the fight.

This opens the door to direct Romanian involvement in any Russian adventurism in Moldova and set the stage for the demolition of the Transnistria state.

Good News for Occupied Ukraine

Of course, to do that, they have to give up indoor plumbing, become chronic alcoholics, and get AIDS.

Western Surgeons Assist Ukrainian Wounded

Dignified Transfer of Remains — Russian Style

This is a Mystery

Operational Level

The lull of last week ended rather abruptly with a major Russian push in Donbas. It started on March 31 and seems to have come to an operational pause a week later without leaving the Russians much to show for it other than dead troops and burned-out tracks. The attacks occurred all along the front, but the hammer fell in two places. In the north, it hit the village of Tonenke, which is at the northern shoulder of the now-collapsed Avdiivka Salient. In the south, it fell on the unpronounceable burg of Novomykhailivka. Since Saturday, there have been about seven battalion-sized attacks. This is the overview.

CREDIT: Base map via Andrew Perpetua, additional graphics and labels by author.

Tonenke

The Russians attacked with 36 tanks and eight armored fighting vehicles. Ukrainian reconnaissance drones documented the assault.

Eventually, the Russians reached close combat range. At 0:45 in this video, you can see Ukrainian dismounted infantry and a Russian vehicle engaged at point-blank range by some sort of anti-tank rocket.

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At least 12 tanks and eight armored fighting vehicles were destroyed before the attack halted.

The image in this tweet (or "X" post or whatever) shows the placement of the destroyed vehicles.

Note that Russian infantry did not dismount to try to clear Ukrainian infantry, nor did the Russians deploy out of a column formation.

Novomykhailivka

Here, the Russians attacked with eight armored fighting vehicles.

Six of the eight vehicles were destroyed before the attack ended.

Other Attacks

This is from an attack on the same day, farther north in Bakhmut. It is two armored fighting vehicles and nine or 10 men. They are hit by artillery, including DPICM.

This is the aftermath of an attack in the Kharkiv sector.

This is from Terny in northern Donetsk. Toward the end, you can see Russian troops un-assing their vehicles and running.

This is a major offensive. The coordination along the front indicates the attack was ordered from the highest command echelon. We can only guess at the goals. These could be a series of limited objective attacks probing Ukrainian reaction or a genuine attempt to achieve an operational breakthrough. Or they could be a continuation of the offensive that started in December to reach the historical boundaries of Donetsk and Luhansk. That objective was supposed to have been achieved by the time of Putin's "reelection." What makes the whole affair so curious is that, in all cases, the attacks were launched without the benefit of artillery or air support. They also took place without the mine clearing equipment that would be needed to effect a breakthrough.

We'll know in about a week if this is a sustained effort that will give the Russians time to swap out depleted units and restart operations.

While we're at it, I'd like to hit some stories that appeared and disappeared last week.

As always, one has to consider the source and the target audience. The Russian attack on Kharkiv failed in the early days of the war. There is no reason to believe Russia can mass 300,000 men in that region by June. There is less reason to think they will cease operations in Donbas and shift them to a new front a couple of hundred miles. Keep in mind that massing the troops and constructing new railways to supply them would be conducted within the HIMARS range and within the range of Ukrainian strike aircraft. Plus, as I've documented, the Ukrainians have been fortifying the Kharkiv area since mid-summer 2023. This is not to say it can't happen, but it is much more likely a message to Ukraine's Western allies about the need for increased military aid than a warning of Russian intentions.

Second item.

"I think we have assessed throughout the last couple of months that Russia has almost completely reconstituted militarily," Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell said on Wednesday at a talk hosted by the Center for a New American Security. Campbell cofounded CNAS, a Washington-based think tank.

Charitably, this is bonkers. Campbell is alone among US intelligence and military organizations, and NATO member nations, in making this claim. I think the best way to evaluate this claim is in the context of the political fight over the $60 billion-plus Ukraine supplemental aid package that Speaker Johnson has pledged to bring up for a vote. Otherwise, Campbell needs a psychiatric intervention.

Third item.

Politico Europe ran a story headlined: Ukraine is at great risk of its front lines collapsing. The story is sourced to "high-ranking Ukrainian officers."

And according to high-ranking Ukrainian military officers who served under General Valery Zaluzhny — the commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces until he was replaced in February — the military picture is grim.

The officers said there’s a great risk of the front lines collapsing wherever Russian generals decide to focus their offensive. Moreover, thanks to a much greater weight in numbers and the guided aerial bombs that have been smashing Ukrainian positions for weeks now, Russia will likely be able to “penetrate the front line and to crash it in some parts,” they said.

They spoke on the condition of anonymity to speak freely.

“There’s nothing that can help Ukraine now because there are no serious technologies able to compensate Ukraine for the large mass of troops Russia is likely to hurl at us. We don’t have those technologies, and the West doesn’t have them as well in sufficient numbers,” one of the top-ranking military sources told POLITICO.

Is the situation they describe real or not real? I don't have any way of evaluating that. The sources are partisans of the former commander-in-chief. In my view, the story seems designed to insulate Zaluzhny from any blame if things go sideways over the next year while taking credit for identifying the problem and allowing the new Ukrainian leadership to fix things. It could also be that Zelensky correctly identified the rot of defeatism when he replaced Zaluzhny.

And there is an alternative scenario that is something very different. We know the FSB, which is responsible for intelligence operations in former Soviet republics, seems prone to telling their superiors what they want to hear. I think a lot of mishaps during Putin's invasion are most easily explainable if one assumes the FSB told Putin that the Ukrainian military would not fight and Ukrainians couldn't wait to be liberated from the Nazi regime of that Jew Zelensky. This story went to press four days after the big Russian offensive kicked off. It is safe to assume that it was in the works beforehand. What if, and stick with me here, the FSB had been hearing the same stories from the same people and told the Russian high command the Ukrainian line was about to buckle? What would you, as a Russian general, do? I think your reaction would be very much like what we've seen.

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Drone Update

There were multiple new items concerning drones this week. Rather than spread them out, I decided to consolidate them.

Drones Are a National Priority

When the president of a country holds a top-level meeting to set up a drone production strategy, it is serious.

Drone-Specific Warheads Developed

Early in the war, the only significant drone was the Bayraktar TB-2, manufactured in Turkey and used by Ukraine. It has four hardpoints and can carry laser-guided bombs or rockets. It was the Bayraktar that stacked up Russian vehicles on the road to Kiev. This was immediately followed by commercial-off-the-shelf and locally manufactured drones jury-rigged to carry hand grenades, mortar rounds, anti-tank mines, RPG rounds, etc. Now, with an emphasis on manufacturing drones for combat operations, we're seeing the development of warheads designed for drones.

Maneuver on Terminal Trajectory

Russian Lancet FPV suicide drones seem to have acquired the ability to maneuver as they approach the target, making acquiring and engaging them a little more difficult.

Full-size Kamikaze Drones

Ukraine loaded a Cessna with a large quantity of explosives, flew it about 700 miles into Russia, and crashed it into the factory that assembles Shahed drones.

Mobile Fire Teams

I've commented before on the Ukrainian development of mobile fire teams. These are mobile groups organized around a truck-mounted automatic cannon or multiple machine guns that can maneuver to react to an incoming drone attack. 

The Ukrainians have used them to some success and have even shot down cruise missiles.

RELATED: Putin's War, Week 108. Moscow Under Attack and Congress's Struggles Continue

The Russian Army is following the lead and organizing its own teams. 

Russia's military is forming new mobile fire groups to fend off Ukrainian drones, but they may be an attempt to compensate for a lack of available air-defense systems in western Russia, according to a new analysis.

Moscow is creating new units within existing armies, Russian state newspaper Izvestia reported on Friday, citing anonymous Russian military sources. The units will have trucks with mounted anti-aircraft guns, as well as electronic-warfare systems and smoke emitters. Mobile fire groups are designed to quickly respond to incoming air threats, like drones, wherever they are needed.

In my view, this is a questionable move. Ukraine has better early warning and communications capabilities. Where the Ukrainians use mobile fire teams to defend critical assets that aren't covered by a very formidable national antiaircraft umbrella, the Russians will try to use them to compensate for a lack of early warning and air defense weaponry. I don't see how they get there from here.

Pull!!

I've commented before that it wouldn't be shocking to eventually find military units with dogs trained to alert on the pitch of drone engines and designated shooters with 12-gauge shotguns and #4 shot. Here's proot of concept, minus the dog. In the video, a Russian soldier armed with a semi-automatic shotgun takes on an FPV drone.

RELATED: Putin's War, Week 92. Ukraine Gets Its Own Divine Wind and With Friends Like China, Who Needs Enemies

Unmanned Ground Vehicles in the Attack

Here, Ukrainian UGVs attack Russian positions. The location is not mentioned.

Improved Range and Payload

High Tech, Low Tech, No Tech

Combat Operations

Help Me Out Here

An axiom of military tactics is that you don't place high-value items inside the range of enemy air assets without some kind of protection.

In this video, an M777 howitzer located in Inhulets, Kherson Oblast, is targeted by drones. The gun is damaged, but its ammunition and some vehicles are lost. This is inside one of the frontline areas that has the highest density of antiaircraft systems. Not only can suicide drones attack the gun, but there is a reconnaissance drone lolling about, recording the happenings.

I don't understand how this can happen.

Black Sea Fleet Assumes Fetal Position

After being driven out of Sevastopol, Russia's Black Sea Fleet is taking no chances. British Intelligence reports the Russians are forming lines of barges in front of the ports they are still using to protect their ships from drones.

SAM vs. Drone

This appears to be a US-made Advanced Short Range Air-to-Air Missile, the successor to the venerable AIM-9 Sidewinder, in ground launch mode, taking out a Russian reconnaissance drone.

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Ammunition Scrounging

In March, I reported on the Czechs "discovering" about 1 million rounds of 155mm artillery ammunition. To date, they have come up with donations to buy about half of that stockpile, and the first of it will arrive in Ukraine in April. According to the Estonian Defense Minister, in the last three months, the Russians have fired about 500,000 rounds, and the Ukrainians have responded with about 75,000. I'm not sure what that means because all ammunition and fire control systems aren't the same. But a 6:1 deficit is not where you want to be.

Estonia claims it has found about another million 155mm shells and is asking for contributions to buy them. If true, this would be a windfall of about 2.5 million rounds of artillery ammunition, or over a year's unconstrained supply. That would provide the needed buffer, until new factories in the US and Europe come on line.

BACKGROUND: Putin's War, Week 106. Putin Faces Reelection, Nuland is Out, and the Czechs Find Artillery Ammunition

Interestingly, there is another scrounging expedition underway. It is looking for Soviet standard 152mm artillery ammunition. Apparently, Belarus is leading the effort on Russia's behalf.

Russian Drone Team Eliminated

This is the flip side of what I mentioned at the top of this section. Here, a Russian Orlan reconnaissance drone team is caught recovering their UAV and hit by a HIMARS rocket. Critical assets should not be operating without some form of anti-drone coverage/

Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures

Drone vs. ATV

An FPV chases an ATV with two passengers somewhere near Vuhledar, Donetsk.

Empty Battlefield

The thing that strikes me repeatedly in Ukraine war videos is just how empty the battlefield is. We've seen singleton tank raids. We've seen one or two soldiers holding what looks like 100 meters of trench. This Javelin strike on a Russian takes place in the Avdiivka Salient, arguably the most densely militarized part of the entire front. Two Ukrainian soldiers take on a Russian tank at what appears to be at least a kilometer away. It seems like they may as well be on the moon.

Laurel and Hardy Do Decoys

The Russians began painting aircraft on the runways at airbases in Crimea after Ukraine started attacking them. British Intelligence reports that the Russians don't seem to have grasped the basic concept.

Decoys like this aren't meant to deceive drones coming in to attack. Their purpose is to deceive satellites and other reconnaissance imagery. If you park a helicopter on your decoy and let it be photographed, it loses a substantial part of its value.

Close Call

A Russian soldier has a close call from a French-made AASM-250 HAMMER. The video picks up when the aircraft-delivered bomb arrives over the target and fires its rocket motor for final attack.

A for Effort, F for Judgment

I'm not sure I've ever seen someone lathe an 82mm Russian mortar round down to an 81mm NATO round, but here it is.

I suppose if you are short of ammunition, you do what you gotta do. This seems to me to be a suboptimal, labor-intensive, and somewhat risky alternative to, say, rustling up an 82mm mortar tube and putting the 81mm away until more ammo arrives. 

And I think you use oil to do this, too.

They're In Love...and Naked...NTTAWWT

Nothing to see here but a couple of amorous vatniks far from home, buck naked, having sex in a shell crater, and getting captured by a Ukrainian drone.

Northern Front

As I described earlier, this area was the scene of heavy fighting over the last week.

Kharkiv

Kupyansk-Kreminna

Despite very heavy fighting, the Russian Army does not appear to have gained territory.

Donbas

This area saw very heavy fighting over the last week. The Russians managed to gain some ground and possibly set up another Bakhmut-style city fight.

Bahkmut-Klishchiivka-Andriivka

While most of the Russian attacks in this area were driven off by the defenders, the Russians have established a foothold in the city of Chasiv Yar.

This battle has the potential to become a critical one. Chasiv Yar is a cross a major water obstacle. If they can force a crossing, they create the possibility of an operational breakout focused on Kostiantynivka. The Russian advance is still east of the canal line, so it is much too early to tell if this is the beginning of a successful offensive or the Ukrainians withdrawing to more favorable positions.

Avdiivka

The Russians made minor gains near Pervomaiske in the south and Stepove in the north. The big story here was the Russians losing roughly a battalion at Tonenke.

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Partisan Activity

Southern Front

There was some heavy fighting around in this sector early in the week. Despite suffering heavy losses, the Russians may have made small gains near Novomykhailivka in the Vuhledar area.

Zaporizhzhia

Vuhledar

Robotyne-Verbove- Novoprokopivka

The frontline in this area remains unchanged.

Kherson

Krynky

The situation on the left bank of the Dneiper remains static despite continual combat.

Rear Areas

Russia

Probable Drone Attack

This is an attack on a machine shop at Uralmashzavod in Yekaterinburg. The shop specializes in making metallurgical and mining equipment, and is also involved with the Russian defense industry.

Shahed Factory and Oil Refinery in Tartarstan

What's Next

The big question mark is what we are looking at in the Donbas region. The Russians launched about seven battalion-sized armor attacks over a period of about four days, as well as numerous dismounted attacks. The effort gained a small amount of ground in a few places but mostly resulted in a devastated attacking force. Was this a roll-the-dice, Battle of the Bulge-type operation to take Donbas, or are we seeing a shift in Russian tactics from a constant stream of uncoordinated infantry assaults to hammer blows against the Ukrainian lines in multiple places to try to achieve a breakthrough?

Of course, the other big question is, given the burn rate of men and equipment, is another round of major assaults possible without weakening frontline Russian forces to the point where they are vulnerable to a counterattack?

Though I have to admit that the ferocity of the Russian attacks last week was something of a shock to me, given the lack of results, I think things are pretty much where they were.

Western aid to Ukraine seems to be getting more regular, and we can expect the US aid package to be approved in the next month. Political support for Ukraine in Europe is solidifying, with NATO and the EU, with the exceptions of Hungary and Slovakia, firmly behind supporting Ukraine. 

There is no evidence that any of the masses of Russian troops we're told are waiting in the wings for a major offensive operation exist. Or, if they do exist, there is no evidence they can be trained, equipped, supplied, and converted into combat units. In short, there is every indication that last week may have been close to the high-water mark of Russian offensive capabilities, assuming there is no collapse of the Ukrainian Army.

As I've said for weeks, I don't think the Ukrainians can politically afford to hunker down and play defense all summer, even if that might arguably be their best strategic option. After last summer's failed offensive, I think they have to demonstrate at least the local capacity to carry out an attack that regains a relatively large amount of real estate. 

Given those assumptions, I think any possible Russian offensive will burn itself out by late May or early June, and I think a late summer Ukrainian offensive in western Zaporizhzhia, with the objective of cutting off Occupied Kherson and Crimea from the main grouping of Russian forces, is the most likely. I also think it is very likely that the Kerch Strait Bridge will be destroyed concurrently with that operation.

I don't think time is on Putin's side and I think he knows that. No matter how much ammunition he has — and I think it takes some wild leaps of fancy to get Russian ammunition production from where it was circa 2000 to where the Russians and their simps claim it is today — their real issue is worn-out artillery tubes. The first Ukrainian F-16s should appear in the next three months unless Jake Sullivan has come up with another case of the squirts and throws up more roadblocks. The Ukrainian attacks on the Russian oil industry will continue, and their fleet of drones continues to become more effective.

The bottom line is that this war will continue until one or both combatants decide they've had enough. Putin has laid out maximalist conditions for ending the war. He's already annexed five Ukrainian oblasts, and it is hard to see how he "un-annexes" them and stays in power. For that matter, even if Putin is deposed, it isn't easy to see how Russia gives up territory it has annexed. 

Ukrainian public opinion is behind continuing the war, and Europe has finally woken up to what happens if Putin is allowed to win. Even in the US, those who would force Ukraine to give up territory and sovereignty to appease Putin are destined to remain a minority.

Streiff

Former infantry officer, CGSC grad and Army Operations Center alumnus. Also an amateur historian (Colonial America) and a dabbler in historical fiction.
RedState member since 2004. "He would rather pinch off his own head than admit he's wrong" -- Daily Kos. Follow me on Twitter. 

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Tags: RUSSIA UKRAINE PUTIN'S WAR

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