The 2026 Election Season is Here
We are one week away from Labor Day, and it has traditionally been after that late-summer holiday weekend that most people start paying attention to politics in any given election year. If you're here reading RedState, you probably have more than the usual interest in politics, public policy, and so forth, but for most people, it's not until they stop burping after that last Labor Day beer that they remember it's an election year and start paying attention to the deluge of campaign ads.
But it's not too early to start prognosticating. It's interesting and fun, and it can yield some insights into trends as we lead up to what may well be the most consequential midterm elections in recent history. So, let's have a look at some best guesses as to where we stand, a little over two months out. Note: These are "consensus" maps, with the 270 to Win maps based on some aggregates of current polling.
The House of Representatives
There are, even now, too many tossups on the 270 To Win map to give Republicans much comfort. Democrats, honestly, shouldn't be resting on their laurels, either. Redistricting in some key states will be boosting Republican chances of holding on to the House of Representatives. Still, the map, right now, is troubling.
— Ward Clark (@TheGreatLander) August 31, 2026
IA-1 and IA-3 are toss-ups in what has become a pretty red state. Alaska's sole House seat looks like it's pretty secure to stay in the hands of Republican Nick Begich III. There are a few toss-ups in swing states, like WI-03, MI-07, and OH-07. But the overall numbers are giving Democrats just a bit of a boost; they are, according to aggregates of current surveys, leading by one seat in safe seats, 208-207, with 20 seats as toss-ups. Those aren't comforting numbers. Neither is the fact that the RealClearPolitics averages have Democrats holding a 6.4-point lead in generic balloting, which isn't necessarily indicative, but I'd feel a whole lot more optimistic if it was the GOP that was up 6.4 points.
Bellwethers: Watch the new redistricted races, and watch southern Iowa and the Rust Belt.
The Senate
The picture here isn't much better.
— Ward Clark (@TheGreatLander) August 31, 2026
There are far too many seats here that should not be toss-ups. Most notable among them is Texas, where Attorney General Ken Paxton is facing off against James Talarico, the softest Senate candidate of the cycle; he's about as masculine as a cream puff, and yet the Texas Senate race seems to be uncomfortably close. Here in Alaska, we are beset with ranked-choice voting (RCV) and the fact that we have Dan Sullivans appearing out of the woodwork to challenge the incumbent Senator Dan Sullivan (R-AK) in a race that is confusing enough already. Iowa and Ohio should be GOP retains, but the latest info has them as toss-ups as well. Michigan is a toss-up now, but that may change, though, as the more the Democrat, self-professed "democratic socialist" (commie) candidate Abdul El-Sayed opens his mouth, the more he embarrasses himself, which in Michigan may be enough to give Republican Mike Rogers an edge.
Bellwethers: Watch Michigan and Texas.
Decisive Factors
Here's the thing: This thing is, right now, way too close for comfort. Like most elections, this one will come down to unity and turnout, and sadly, those are things that the Democrats have historically done better than Republicans. That's not surprising, as the Democrats tend to be more collectively-minded, while Republicans tend to be more independent-thinking. Or, one might say, thinking at all. Getting out the vote will be key. Democrats have one big problem: Their increasingly vocal communist wing, who may win a few safe House seats but who will struggle to make their communist messaging sell anywhere else. But we have enough trouble with infighting on the Republican side, too. It's not split neatly along one ideological line like the Democrats, but there are enough "I'll stay home unless I get everything I want RIGHT NOW" Republicans to be troublesome.
Turnout. That's the key. If you haven't gotten everything you want, suck it up and vote, because the other side will take away everything you have.
What It All Means
This will be the hardest-fought and the most consequential midterm election of the century so far. Democrats, not just the commie nuts but what passes for their mainstream, are already talking about a renewed Trump Impeach-a-Palooza and three, five, nine, or more new Supreme Court justices that will drink from the leftist mug. They are talking about rolling back the Trump administration's border enforcement and deportation measures and throwing our borders open again. They are talking about "election reform" that will outlaw any requirement for voter ID or proof of citizenship. They want to do all that and more, and if they win, they will start those wheels rolling.
Right now, in this first look, things are way too close for comfort. Turnout. It's all going to be about turnout. On Election Day, as I've been saying, if you have to crawl on your hands and knees through a mile of scrap iron and busted glass to vote, do so. Go vote. Take all your Republican friends to vote. If you can vote early, bank that vote. If you are required to vote by mail, don't drop your ballot in the mailbox; take it to a regular ballot drop-box. It's still a horrible system, but at least that eliminates one variable.
And, if you're in Alaska, rank the red. That's the only way we have now to win this.
Stay steady. And watch here for more. Things are only just getting started.
