A new report out of Iran, if it's accurate, would represent yet another episode in Iran's recurring series, "Our Mouth is Writing Checks Our Butts Can't Cash." This time, regime insiders speaking to the Financial Times are indicating that what's left of Iran's military is looking into options to strike U.S. military assets in Europe, should President Trump choose to escalate the present conflict.
That's a bit of a poser, since if we escalate too much more, there won't be any Iran left.
Two regime insiders told the FT that Iranian forces have assessed striking US assets in south-eastern European countries such as Bulgaria, which last month approved the use of its Bezmer air base for US refuelling aircraft.
One of the insiders added that Cyprus, where a British air base was struck by a drone in March, was also among potential targets for retaliation in the event of any renewed US offensive.
Even if Iran was able to hit these bases with missiles and/or drones, there would seem to be a huge chance of even a near-miss of anything other than American assets provoking a response from somewhere in Europe, possibly even involving NATO. That isn't a bear... well, let's say a weasel that Iran should be thinking about poking. After all, even a weasel can give one a nasty bite.
Iran is simultaneously threatening infrastructure in the Strait of Hormuz, which would likely aggravate their neighbors more than they already have.
The insiders said Iranian forces have separately examined attacking subsea fibre-optic cables in the Strait of Hormuz in the event of an escalation.
The threats reflect the defiant mood in Tehran, where many within the regime increasingly see a resumption of the war as a matter of when, not if.
The regime may well be right about one thing, at least; there may well be a resumption of the American "kinetic action" against the Islamic Republic, which is military jargon for "kicking the crap out of them."
Iran's reported threats were also covered by the American military paper Stars & Stripes, which also noted:
NATO member Turkey, which shares a border with Iran and hosts about 1,700 permanently assigned U.S. active-duty personnel, has already been the target of Iranian fire. Turkish officials said in March that NATO air defenses had intercepted several Iranian ballistic missiles.
There's a lot of reason to look on this report with the usual skepticism we accord to the gaseous emissions out of Tehran. First, Iran's options here are limited. From my notes: They do have the Khorramshahr-4 ballistic missile, which can carry a 1,500-1,900 kg warhead 3,000 kilometers, theoretically giving them the ability to hit any target in Western Europe, along with the Sejjil-2 and the Ghadr-1, shorter-range missiles that could hit anywhere in Greece, Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania, or the eastern Mediterranean. Their Soumar and Paveh cruise missiles are reported to have a 2,500 km range as well, giving them the possibility of hitting targets in eastern Europe, but those are more easily intercepted. Also, Iran's homegrown missiles don't have the greatest reputation for accuracy, making an inadvertent miss and the subsequent possible involvement of NATO more likely.
This seems to be a bit too reckless even for the nutcases currently running Iran. The United States and Europe would be well-advised to keep one eye on this, but it's far more likely that Iran will continue on their present course: Flip the occasional drone or missile at American installations and some of their neighbors now and then, try to hang on to what they have left, and hope that in the United States, the Democrats flip the House and the Senate in November and then, in January, put as many dampers on President Trump's efforts as they can.
That's still the primary concern the Trump administration should have in this affair: Time works for Iran, not for us.
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