The conflict with Iran appears to be far from over, despite ongoing talks moderated by Oman and Pakistan. We've noted in recent reports that President Trump appears to be losing patience with Iran, as well as the likely prospect that Iran is playing for time, hoping for Republican losses in the midterm elections. But it's not clear at all that Iran can hold out that long.
President Trump, on Wednesday, took to his Truth Social account to unleash another virtual broadside at the Islamic Republic.
— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) August 12, 2026
The president writes:
The U.S.A. has total control over the Strait of Hormuz. I THINK WE WILL KEEP IT! Our Naval Blockade is being called, by everyone, “A WALL OF STEEL,” and there is nothing Iran can do about it. They have no Navy, they have no Air Force, their remaining soldiers are unpaid, the IRGC is decimated and fleeing, and their “Leadership” is uncertain, at best! They have No Money - Their country is “shot.” All they have is FAKE NEWS and 300% INFLATION, and getting worse! Iran is all talk and no action, the Bully of the Middle East No Longer. Praise be to Allah! President DONALD J. TRUMP
In another post on X, Energy Secretary Chris Wright brought numbers:
Thanks to the coordinated efforts of the U.S. military and our gulf allies, the seven-day average for oil leaving the Strait of Hormuz is currently up to almost 9 million barrels per day.
— Secretary Chris Wright (@SecretaryWright) August 11, 2026
When combined with the additional 5-7 million barrels per day leaving the region via newly…
The Secretary writes:
Thanks to the coordinated efforts of the U.S. military and our gulf allies, the seven-day average for oil leaving the Strait of Hormuz is currently up to almost 9 million barrels per day.
When combined with the additional 5-7 million barrels per day leaving the region via newly upgraded pipelines and export facilities, total oil flows are currently averaging approximately 15 million barrels per day.
On Sunday alone, over 20 million barrels left the Arabian gulf region, which is above the pre-conflict average.
As of this writing, oil prices are holding pretty steady; US crude (USOIL) is at 83.10 per barrel, with UK (Brent) at 88.68. It's been worse, but it's also been a lot better.
Right now, as noted above, it sure looks a lot like Iran is playing for time, and honestly, time works for them, not for the United States. The Democrat Party is using the Iran war as a major campaign issue, and in some quarters, especially in some urban swing districts - there are some - it may resonate with enough voters to tip an election in a year when Republicans can't afford to lose even a single seat.
There's one thing that might bring the Iranians to their knees a little more quickly: Watch Kharg Island. Pretty much all of Iran's oil exports flow through there. If the United States were to seize Kharg Island, that may well be the last nudge needed to push Iran's already-disintegrating economy over the brink. The catch, of course, is that this means American boots on the ground in Iranian territory, which would surely draw the most severe response Iran can still muster.
Whether that would make the Iranians any more forthcoming to arrive at some kind of negotiated peace remains to be seen, and in any case, they can't be trusted to keep any deal they agree to. The only thing you can trust about the current regime in Iran is that they can't be trusted.
We do indeed live in interesting times. Expect things in this part of the world to get more interesting between now and November.
Editor's Note: For decades, former presidents have been all talk and no action. Now, Donald Trump is eliminating the threat from Iran once and for all.
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