NYTimes Parrots IRGC Talking Points Despite Massive Evidence to the Contrary

U.S. forces pounded targets on Kharg Island and near the Iranian port of Jask on Tuesday. Three tankers were targeted (New Reports: Three More Iranian Oil Tankers Hit Near Kharg Island – RedState) as part of the strikes. This follows up on U.S. strikes on three other Iranian tankers last Tuesday; see CENTCOM Invokes 'Chicago Rules' to Deal With Iranian Missile Attacks – RedState. We may think this shows that U.S. Central Command has been slipped from the leash and is now coordinating strikes with actions by Scott Bessent's Operation Economic Outcast (see Boom: Bessent Goes Beastmode With Latest Effort Against Iran – RedState) to destroy the financial foundations of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps regime holding Iran hostage. But we are wrong. This is a clever ploy by Iran to let us think we are winning and then crush us totally. Trust me. The New York Times says so.

In a new article, rather than an opinion piece, the New York Times confidently asserted A More Confident Iran Emerges After Six Months of War With the U.S. - The New York Times.

Iran has grown more confident in its ability to attack targets in the Middle East and appears determined to continue the conflict for months to frustrate the United States, according to U.S. intelligence reports in recent weeks.

In many respects, the assessments reflect what has been observable on the ground as fighting erupted again after a period of relative calm. In the past week, Iran targeted ships in the Strait of Hormuz and American troops in the region, and U.S. forces struck inside Iran, killing military personnel and civilians.

...

In the coming weeks, Iran could take actions akin to what it did in July, according to U.S. officials. At that time, Iran attacked American military bases in the Middle East, killing three Americans in Jordan; struck shipping in the Strait of Hormuz; and struck infrastructure in Kuwait and elsewhere.

I have no brief to describe what, if anything, Iran's leaders are thinking. My guess would be that, given the persistent stories of their family members and IRGC members themselves heading toward friendlier climes, their thoughts are dominated by how to keep their heads attached to their necks, not on outsmarting the U.S.

As evidence, we get statements by "current and former officials." The named sources are "Alex Orleans, a former U.S. government cybersecurity contractor" and, ta-da, "Representative Jason Crow, Democrat of Colorado and a member of the Intelligence Committee." Sounds like Adam Schiff's Mini-Me has been busy.

Let's review the bidding. Since the "memorandum of understanding" that was supposed to bring this war to an end (see Peace Through Strength: President Donald Trump Officially Signs the Memorandum of Understanding With Iran – RedState), Iranian oil exports have cratered. For the first time ever, the U.S. has gone after major banks in friendly countries. Oil is moving at max volume through pipelines safe from Iranian attacks, and more pipelines are under construction or being planned. This ensures the IRGC can never recover economically; see Tehran’s Hormuz Blockade Looks Like History’s Dumbest Trade Own-Goal – RedState.

Since the MOU was signed, Iran's actions have looked like this.

• June 25: drone on containership
• June 27: drone on tanker
• July 7: unidentified projectiles hit three tankers.
• July 12: tanker hit.
• August 4: tanker hit.
• August 17: bulk carrier hit.
• August 17: tanker seized.
• August 20-31: six tankers hit.
• September 9: two U.S. warships targeted; no damage.

These attacks resulted in one ship being abandoned (I'm assuming it has been retrieved), one ship seized, and two persons killed.

Iran has also lashed out at neighboring countries and U.S. bases in the region.

• June 27: attacked Bahrain, no apparent damage.
• July 8: attacked Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, and Qatar; no facilities hit.
• July 12: attacked Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman, UAE, Jordan; no facilities hit, three persons injured.
• July 14: attacked Kuwait; four Kuwaiti service members injured.
• July 16: attacked Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Jordan, Iraq; U.S. facilities hit, two Americans killed and four injured; see UPDATED: CENTCOM Reports 2 US Fatalities in Iranian Attack on Jordan; SecWar Hegseth Reacts – RedState.
• September 2: Jordan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq attacked; no facilities hit or casualties; see Iran Decides It Doesn't Have Enough Problems, Launches Attack on Kuwait – RedState.

When the article claims that Iran may escalate, one has to ask the old Military Intelligence question: when? where? and in what strength?

No real answers to those questions support the article's thesis. Empirically, attacks on land targets are becoming less frequent and less severe. 

Iran's imprudent lashing out at U.S. warships last week resulted in a drubbing. Iran can no longer manufacture ballistic missiles, and the declining accuracy suggests it is using obsolete or cobbled-together missiles in its current attacks.

In short, if they are confident of their ability to attack U.S. forces, or even wait out the U.S. economic blockade, there is no evidence they are either acting on that belief or that the belief is sane.

Of course, you always have these guys who can't distinguish between threats and actions:

Iranian counterescalation coming soon…

It seems as though Iran is looking to make guaranteed hits now compared to attempting to strike vessels utilizing the Omani Route.

This is what escalation dominance looks like. https://t.co/CfQVhMcMxU

— Brett Erickson (@BrettErickson28) September 8, 2026

To escalate, you need the means. No evidence shows that whatever offensive weaponry Iran possesses can penetrate defensive shields and cause damage. There is an increasing amount of evidence that indicates Iran's ability to conduct more than nuisance strikes on the occasional ship may be nonexistent.

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