At the annual shindig in Davos, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney made himself the folk hero of the anti-Trump crowd (that would be basically everyone). In remarks billed as receiving a "standing ovation" but which look pretty tepid on video, Carney proclaimed that Canada was going its own way because the "American hegemon" could no longer be trusted.
And we are no longer just relying on the strength of our values, but also the value of our strength.
We are building that strength at home.
Since my government took office, we have cut taxes on incomes, on capital gains and business investment. We have removed all federal barriers to interprovincial trade. We are fast tracking a trillion dollars of investments in energy, AI, critical minerals, new trade corridors and beyond. We're doubling our defence spending by the end of this decade, and we're doing so in ways that build our domestic industries.
And we are rapidly diversifying abroad. We have agreed a comprehensive strategic partnership with the EU, including joining SAFE, the European defence procurement arrangements. We have signed 12 other trade and security deals on four continents in six months. The past few days, we've concluded new strategic partnerships with China and Qatar. We're negotiating free trade pacts with India, ASEAN, Thailand, Philippines and Mercosur.
Shortly before Carney arrived at Davos, he paid a visit to China, the first such visit since 2017, and negotiated an expansive trade deal. So, the speech was more of a validation of actions taken than a forewarning of future events.
Central to this new partnership is an agreement to collaborate in energy, clean technology, and climate competitiveness. Canada and China are both energy superpowers focused on expanding two-way energy cooperation – reducing emissions and scaling up investments in batteries, solar, wind, and energy storage. While in Beijing, the Prime Minister met business leaders in energy and clean technology to identify and accelerate Chinese investment opportunities in Canada.
To help deliver the full potential of these partnerships, and build up our domestic manufacturing sector, Canada will allow up to 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles (EV) into the Canadian market, with the most-favoured-nation tariff rate of 6.1%. This amount corresponds to volumes in the year prior to recent trade frictions on these imports (2023-2024), representing less than 3% of the Canadian market for new vehicles sold in Canada. It is expected that within three years, this agreement will drive considerable new Chinese joint-venture investment in Canada with trusted partners to protect and create new auto manufacturing careers for Canadian workers, and ensure a robust build-out of Canada’s EV supply chain. With this agreement, it is also anticipated that, in five years, more than 50% of these vehicles will be affordable EVs with an import price of less than $35,000, creating new lower-cost options for Canadian consumers.
Agri-food and trade are foundations of the longstanding relationship between Canada and China – and China continues to be our second-largest export market. To renew and strengthen that relationship, Prime Minister Carney and President Xi secured a preliminary agreement-in-principle with landmark measures to remove trade barriers and reduce tariffs:
- By March 1, 2026, Canada expects that China will lower tariffs on Canadian canola seed to a combined rate of approximately 15%. China is a $4 billion canola seed market for Canadian producers, and this change represents a significant drop from current combined tariff levels of approximately 85%.
- Canada expects that Canadian canola meal, lobsters, crabs, and peas will not be subject to relevant anti-discrimination tariffs from March 1, 2026, until at least the end of this year.
Together, these results will help unlock nearly $3 billion in export orders for Canadian workers and businesses as they realise the full potential of the massive Chinese market of 1.4 billion people.
Finally, to build on this momentum, Canada has set an ambitious goal to increase exports to China by 50% by 2030. To achieve this outcome, Prime Minister Carney and President Xi discussed increasing two-way investment in clean energy and technology, agri-food, wood products, and other sectors.
The reaction from the Trump Administration is much as one might expect when the goal of its National Defense Strategy, which is a Monroe Doctrine-like sphere of influence in the Western hemisphere; see Trump's Campaign Against Venezuela Is Jumpstarting the Monroe Doctrine – RedState.
President Donald Trump on Saturday said he would impose a 100 percent tariff on all Canadian imports coming into the U.S. if Canada follows through on a trade deal with China.
“If Governor Carney thinks he is going to make Canada a “Drop Off Port” for China to send goods and products into the United States, he is sorely mistaken,” Trump wrote in a post on social media, mockingly calling Prime Minister Mark Carney “Governor,” a nod to the nickname he had for former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
“China will eat Canada alive, completely devour it, including the destruction of their businesses, social fabric, and general way of life. If Canada makes a deal with China, it will immediately be hit with a 100% Tariff against all Canadian goods and products coming into the U.S.A.”
This is all true. Chinese-manufactured “green energy” products are compromised from the beginning. For instance, Chinese-built equipment for so-called “wind farms” gives China the ability to remotely kill energy production. It also doesn’t take a genius to see how Chinese imports to Canada will take advantage of the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement, known as USMCA, to dump cheap Chinese crap on the U.S. market and avoid any tariffs the U.S. government may impose.
We’ve also seen operations by China that seem to indicate it is preparing for an eventual war against the United States; see There's No Hiding It; China's Actions Say It's Planning a Preemptive Attack on the US – RedState. Allowing China to become Canada's dominant trading partner—it already buys more oil from Canada than the U.S. buys—would open Canada to becoming a Chinese colony in the way so many small countries have been the victim of the Chinese strategy of “elite capture;” see China Seeks to Buy Eight Pacific Island Nations While Joe Biden and His State Department Are Comatose – RedState. But, as Carney is about to discover, petulance comes with a price. In addition to President Trump’s threat of 100 percent tariffs on Canadian goods, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick made it clear that the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), or at least the Canadian portion of it, will not survive the renegotiations that are taking place this summer.
“We should look at it as just political noise coming out of a prime minister,” Lutnick said of Carney’s recent messaging. “I don’t think it can be real, because he took out the math of Canada’s economy and doing business with the United States of America’s $30 trillion economy. There’s no such thing as changing what they have today.”
Canada has “the second-best deal in the world” with its access to the US market, Lutnick said, behind only Mexico. The Commerce chief also indicated that Canada’s tilt toward China could become an issue in talks over revamping the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement known as USMCA.
If Ottawa opts to import Chinese electric vehicles and other trade-strengthening steps with Beijing, “do you think the president of the United States is going to say you should keep having the second-best deal in the world” during USMCA talks, Lutnick questioned.
He also said that USMCA renegotiation is likely to happen “towards the end of the summer and the middle of the summer” this year.
An additional factor will also feature in the calculations.
Carney’s decision to pull the plug on U.S. relations in favor of a closer trade alliance with China could be the tipping point that leads to Canada’s dissolution. Canada faces at least two massive internal conflicts, leading smart money to bet it can’t survive as a cohesive country.
The first conflict is Quebec separatism. This movement has faded from view since its high point in the 1990s. Make no mistake: it is still alive and only needs the right impetus to return to center stage. Of course, as we saw during the 90s, other Canadian provinces know that an independent Quebec means Canada is finished. Canada had a near-death experience in 1995 when the independence referendum in Quebec failed by 50-6 percent to 49.4 percent.
The second conflict is an overweening federal government that is anti-liberty. Saw that with the Canadian Freedom Convoy in 2022. The ruthless crackdown on Canadians participating in a peaceful demonstration has left lasting scars, as much as Ottawa tries to pretend otherwise.
The slavish worship of “First Nations” is also causing repercussions. The high court in British Columbia essentially invalidated 95 percent of privately held real estate deeds, ruling that ownership rights belonged to “indigenous peoples.”
The flashpoint that could rapidly cascade into a total disintegration of the Canadian nation, such as it is, is playing out in Alberta. There a century-old separatist movement is on the verge of launching a referendum on Alberta independence.
BACKGROUND:
Essex Files: Alberta Roars for Freedom - Referendum on Sovereignty Looms in 2026 – RedState
Alberta's Separatists and the Possible United States Connection – RedState
Will Canada Break Up? A Look at Alberta's Separatist Movement – RedState
If 10 percent of Alberta voters sign a petition for a referendum by May 2, the province will vote on independence in October 2026. The Trump administration is already raising the issue of Alberta's independence.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has weighed in on a separatist movement in Alberta, saying the western Canadian province is a "natural partner for the US".
"Alberta has a wealth of natural resources, but they won't let them build a pipeline to the Pacific," Bessent told an American right-wing commentator in an interview on Thursday.
"I think we should let them come down into the US, and Alberta is a natural partner for the US. They have great resources. The Albertans are very independent people."
Carney’s deal with China seems likely to force Canadians to choose between cheap Chinese imports and doubling the price of anything from America.
While Alberta might be the first in the barrel, you can bet it won’t be long until provinces without Alberta’s oil exports to China find life much more expensive and problematic.
Right now, polling shows that independence from Canada receives at least 29 percent of Albertans' and 31 percent of Quebecois' support. This, however, is based on the status quo, which includes a highly advantageous trade arrangement for Canada with the U.S. If that trade deal goes away, but remains possible through independence, then I think it is safe to say that both provinces could vote to head for the exits.
A broken and atomized Canada has its risks, but they are lower than those of a Canada with a close relationship to China. An independent Alberta and Quebec—and if that happens, a lot of other provinces will be close behind—could become territories in the mode of Puerto Rico and Guam, where they gain the political, economic, and defense benefits of affiliation with the U.S. but don’t bring millions of quasi-communists into our political system.
The irony here is just too rich and luxurious to ignore. Carney’s push to become the darling of the Never-Trump international community could end up being the final straw that leads to the inevitable breakup of Canada.
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