As the U.S. inches closer to an overt move toward regime change in Venezuela, it is a good time to take account of what is going on. Many of the usual suspects on the "woke right" team are teaming up with the left in bleating about "forever wars."
Is Venezuela a replay of the invasion of Iraq? Or is there something larger going on?National Defense Strategy
The as-yet-unpublished National Defense Strategy reportedly represents a significant departure from U.S. strategy, dating back to 1946. The new approach focuses on homeland defense. China, the Middle East, and Europe are all placed on the back burner.
To achieve the goal of homeland defense, the U.S. must maintain dominance in the Western Hemisphere. If we do not, then drugs, secure trade, energy security, immigration, and even internal security can't be guaranteed. Venezuela, unfortunately for Maduro, is the linchpin in all of these.
RISK: China
Chinese influence in the Western Hemisphere must be severely limited for the NDS to work. Some of this started to happen organically when Javiere Millei was elected president of Argentina. One of his first acts was to announce that Argentina was withdrawing from the Chinese-run BRICS economic zone. A BRICS that included Argentina would have placed China in control of all major sea lanes.
One of the first foreign policy acts by President Trump was to attempt to eliminate Chinese control of the Panama Canal; see Does China Run the Canal?.
BACKGROUND:
UPDATED: Trump Admin. Lays Down the Law Over Panama Canal, Sets Up Major Confrontation
Panama Capitulates - Will Not Renew 2017 Deal With China. What's Next? – RedState
China's Out: American Company Taking Control of Panama Canal Ports – RedState.
In the end, China was left in control of some facilities in the Canal (Panama Ports Deal on the Verge of Falling Apart Because of Chinese Government Opposition – RedState), but Panama is clearly looking for a way out of its Chinese problem and toward closer ties with the U.S.
Venezuela has taken another path. Nearly 600,000 Chinese nationals reside in Venezuela; probably less than 10 percent of that number are citizens. Most are relatively new arrivals. The Chinese population of Venezuela, as of their 2011 census, was 15,358. In 14 years, over 500,000 Chinese have appeared in Venezuela. That is a lot of laundries and restaurants. Down at the FBI office, that is what is known as a clue.
Venezuela is also an active participant in China's Belt and Road Initiative, which aims to secure China's dominance in raw materials and trade routes. Venezuela has received over $60 billion in Chinese infrastructure and energy loans (GDP of Venezuela = $82.77 billion). China provides most of Venezuela's military equipment.
And, not to put too fine a point on it, China is not a "strategic competitor," it is an enemy nation with which warfare has not yet entered the kinetic stage; see There's No Hiding It; China's Actions Say It's Planning a Preemptive Attack on the US – RedState.
RISK: Drugs
As early as 2015, Venezuela was described as a major drug transshipment point "due to its porous western border with Colombia, weak judicial system, sporadic international counternarcotics cooperation, and permissive and corrupt environment." Drugs of all kinds remain a national security issue. For instance, six percent of all babies born in West Virginia between 2020 and 2022 had been exposed to opioids or meth in utero. Even controlling for different rates of exposure, the downstream effect on the nation in terms of addiction and mental deficiency is enormous.
RISK: Energy Independence
Venezuela sits on the world's largest oil reserve. Although not in high demand due to its sulfur content, the importance of Venezuelan oil to some U.S. companies is sufficient to warrant the U.S. granting exceptions to sanctions. The primary customer for Venezuelan oil is China. An emerging issue is the discovery of major oil reserves in the Caribbean within the economic zone of Guyana. Venezuela claims about 70% of Guyana. Venezuela held a referendum in 2023 to reinforce its claim to the disputed territory, which passed by over 90% of the votes counted; see Venezuela Signals It May Invade Guyana to Enforce Annexation Referendum – RedState. ExxonMobil and Chevron hold the leases to extract Guyana's oil.
Big Picture
Once we get beyond the screams of "murder" and "forever war" and "neocons," I think what we're seeing is a reestablishment of the Monroe Doctrine. The pressure on Maduro has an air of righteousness because he's an autocrat who is not above exporting revolution; his territorial designs on Guyana will inevitably lead to war, and he sits atop a pyramid of drug cartels that actively kill Americans. Geopolitically, toppling Maduro and replacing him with someone more at home in Washington or Buenos Aires than Moscow or Beijing would greatly increase U.S. security.
Unlike the situation in Iraq, there is a credible possibility of a peaceful ouster of Maduro. The Nobel Peace Prize went to a leader of the Venezuelan opposition (To the Horror of the Left, Nobel Prize Winner Machado Dedicates Her Award to Trump – RedState), which indicates a successor government would have backing from Europe. There are also over 300,000 Venezuelans who will be returning from the United States to help rebuild the country; see Supreme Court Answers the Question of What You Call 300K Venezuelans Without Legal Residence in the US – RedState.
A friendly regime in Venezuela means that U.S. companies will control the extraction and refining of oil from Venezuela, and that the potential conflict with Guyana will be averted.
Aside from oil, Brazil, Colombia, Venezuela, Suriname, and French Guiana also possess rare earth elements with potential for extraction. Given China's weaponization of REE, a friendly source of these materials is also a national security priority.
The pressure on Maduro is not one-dimensional. It is also increasing pressure on Colombian President Gustavo Petro. Petro, a former leftist guerrilla who will undoubtedly roll out the "one-man, one-vote, one time" aspect of Marxist political thought, has decided that there is an advantage to be had in whacking the Orange Man and the evil norteamericanos.
BACKGROUND:
FAFO. Colombia's President Has Visa Revoked After Calling on US Troops to Mutiny – RedState
Colombia's President Says He Must 'Get Rid' of Trump – RedState
Properly viewed, I think that ousting Maduro is a prelude to ridding Colombia of Petro, because Panama, Colombia, Venezuela, and Guyana are all critical terrain that the U.S. must control if it is to be safe.
And, of course, crushing the drug traffic passing through Venezuela will force Bolivian and Colombian cocaine, which is 100% of the world's supply, into smuggling routes that are easier to interdict.
Bottom Line
The pressure campaign and what seems like an impending war with Venezuela is an exercise in hard-nosed realpolitik.
Maduro's removal will significantly improve the security situation in the Western hemisphere. Chinese influence will be stalled. Defense cooperation will increase. Colombia's Petro will have a choice: make peace with Washington or become another item on the menu. Having Venezuela and Colombia in the "friendly forces" column of the operations order virtually ensures Panama joins the team. This has an enormous impact on narcotics trafficking, illegal immigration, international shipping, and control of strategic resources. It ensures that the U.S. and its allies control the future deep-water cables, energy corridors, and mineral logistics emanating from or running through South America.
If our new National Defense Strategy is focused on a reinvigorated Monroe Doctrine, then Venezuela is definitely the place to start.
[Editor's note: The early version of this article contained a glaring error regarding Venezuela's geography. It has been corrected.]
