Canada's recent election was a bit of a surprise - and a bit of a disappointment. Canadian voters went full-on Lib, with the Liberals taking not an overwhelming majority over the Conservatives but a significant one. The Liberals now have the Prime Minister's slot, and the Conservatives' presumed standard-bearer, Pierre Poilievre, lost his seat to a Liberal, Bruce Fanjoy.
Needless to say, many Canadians aren't happy with the outcome, and a look at Canada's 2025 election map is revealing; the prairie provinces in particular went Conservative (note that the Conservative ridings are blue in Canadian politics, and the Liberals red, the opposite of American practices.)
This has led the prairie province of Alberta to seek a referendum to separate from Canada and form an independent nation.
An Alberta separatist group has released a proposed referendum question on sovereignty from Canada, saying they will push the premier for a vote as soon as this year.
That is, if they can garner support from enough provincial residents.
During a news conference Monday, Jeffrey Rath — a lawyer with the Alberta Prosperity Project — pulled a blue provincial flag off an easel, revealing the question printed in large font: “Do you agree that the province shall become a sovereign country and cease to be a province of Canada?”
“It’s not a wishy-washy question like what they had in Quebec,” Rath said, referring to a similar separatism referendum held in 1995 that very nearly saw the French-Canadian province separate from the country.
Note the wording of that; Alberta isn't seeking to become the 51st state in these United States. They're voting whether to go it alone. That seems a difficult prospect, as they would be a landlocked nation sharing borders only with Canada, who may be a bit peeved at the notion of one of the provinces leaving - and the United States, who would be ready, willing and able to make some trade deals for Alberta beef and other agricultural products that this province is known for, not to mention the province's generous gas and oil deposits.
A look at the 2025 electoral map is enough to make one wonder if parts of British Columbia, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba may want to go along for the ride. It's hard to say what might happen if those dominoes started down. And the people behind this separatist movement are touting some pretty business-friendly ideas.
Residents of an independent Alberta would see oil and gas development double within five years, a free-market free-trade agreement with the United States, and a flat 10 per cent income and corporate tax, while being able to keep their Canadian passports and Canada Pension Plan entitlements.
“We’d be the lowest tax regime in North America,” Rath said. “Who wouldn’t want to locate their corporate headquarters in Edmonton or Calgary with a flat 10 per cent corporate tax rate and a flat 10 per cent income tax rate? We think we have a robust economic message to sell.”
Here's the catch: The Canadian Constitution is somewhat ambiguous on the topic of breakaway provinces, but some serious legal minds are claiming it can't be legally done, at least not by a simple referendum.
But what if the runaway provinces petitioned to join the United States?
That would solve a lot of problems for Alberta and any other possible breakaway regions. Canada would no doubt raise a hue and cry if the United States recognized the breakaway regions and made them U.S. territories in preparation for eventual statehood. Yes, Alberta's referendum is to form a new national government, but we should note that Texas was an independent republic before joining the United States, as well as having been the subject of a military contest between the United States and Mexico. So, there's a precedent. And this would give landlocked Alberta a pathway for their goods to enter the international markets via America's West Coast ports.
See Also: Consequences Arrive for Canadian Voters, and They Deserve Every Bit of It
Sadly, the Yukon Territory, in this recent election, went solidly Liberal - so there's no possibility, no matter what else happens, of the United States holding an uninterrupted territory from the Rio Grande to the Arctic.
It's an interesting question, but while this proposal, which I find unlikely, would be a net plus for Alberta, I'm not so sure about it being a net plus for the United States. Alberta may be a red state if admitted, but then again, it may not; Canada's centerline in politics is to the left of the United States' centerline, especially on things like the Second Amendment. Alberta may be a welcome exception to that rule, but remember, any addition would place two Senators and several more House representatives in Congress from a new state whose politics may not be quite at the American conservative mainstream.
Now, a disclaimer: I doubt anything will come of this, even if Alberta's referendum passes. But we should note: Nothing is truly permanent: No nations, no borders. If Alberta does break away, we should have a thought as to their options - and ours.
