Putin's War, Week 92. Ukraine Gets Its Own Divine Wind and With Friends Like China, Who Needs Enemies

By streiff | 3:53 PM on November 30, 2023
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The situation in the 91st week of Vladimir's Wonderful and Excellent Adventure finds the needle essentially unchanged from last week.

Battle lines remain the same. Russian attacks continue to show ferocity, but no ground gained. The weather may be the big story. A "hundred-year storm" hit the Black Sea. It demolished roads and railroads along the coast vital to Russia's war effort. Crimea is mostly without power and water, and reestablishing those services will be difficult. Russia had been forced to mostly abandon Sevastopol because of regular Ukrainian drone attacks. The damage to the port infrastructure may have marked the end of its use as a major naval base for the foreseeable future. The storm also destroyed the barriers the Russians had installed to protect the Kerch Strait Bridge, leaving it vulnerable to more attacks.

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The political situation in Europe and the US remains a wild card for Ukraine. For now, it looks like the political will exists to provide Ukraine with the arms and equipment it needs to defend itself.

Here are some of my past updates. For all my Ukraine War coverage, click here.

Putin's War, Week 91. Mud and Snow Beats Fire and Steel, and Tumbleweeds Are Blowing Through Sevastopol – RedState

Putin's War, Week 90. Grain Corridor Reopens and Russia Hints at Another Major Retreat 

Putin's War, Week 89. Zelensky Gets an EU Invitation, the EU Looks East and the Russians Have a Timetable

Putin's War, Week 88. Zelensky Is Blindsided by TIME Magazine and the Offensive Gets a Postmortem 

Putin's War, Week 87. The Battlefield Shifts to Washington and Brussels

Putin's War, Week 86. The Very Resistible Force Meets the Immovable Object in Donbas

Putin's War, Week 85. The Curtain Goes Down on the Ukrainian Offensive and Russia Rolls for a Hard Six

Putin's War, Week 84. Slovakia Stops Ukraine Aid as the Spring Offensive Nears Culminating Point

Putin's War, Week 83. Zelensky Gets ATACMS From Biden and a Cold Shoulder From McCarthy

Putin's War, Week 82. Russia Dissed at the UN and the War Moves Toward Rasputitsa

Putin's War, Week 81

Many more are available at this link.


Politico-Strategic Level

Black Sea Hit By Hundred-Year Storm

The Black Sea region has been pounded by what is billed as a hundred-year storm. Winds hit 90 miles per hour, and waves ran over 26 feet high. The storm has demolished civil infrastructure in Crimea and inflicted heavy damage on Odesa. Ukrainian grain exports have been brought to a halt, as have Russian oil exports from the region. The factor that could have the greatest impact on Putin's War is the destruction of the power grid in Crimea and massive damage to the power grid in the Russian coast region and the railroad lines that parallel the Black Sea. Over 70 percent of Russia's locomotives are electric, and the railroad is the primary way they supply their army.

Germany Provides More Ukraine Assistance

Germany has pledged €300 in assistance for Ukraine's energy grid. As another winter starts and everyone anticipates that Russia will again target Ukraine's heating and power grid, this aid is both timely and sends a strong message.

increased Patrols in the Baltic

The UK-led Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) nations of Denmark, Finland, Estonia, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Sweden, and Norway have announced their intentions to ramp up naval patrols to protect critical underwater infrastructure in the Baltic. This is probably in response to telecommunications cables being cut by what appears to be a Chinese ship deliberately dragging its anchor; see Chinese Container Ship Suspected of Deliberately Damaging Estonia-Finland Gas Pipeline – RedState.

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China Turns the Screws

There is a myth that parts of the foreign policy community share with the most adamant Putin fluffers. That is, Russia and China are forming an alliance that will challenge America's dominance. The alliance some call "Dragonbear" is probably best sketched out in this essay. I don't believe China considers Russia anything more than a client state that can provide raw materials. China is a developing hegemonic and imperial power that sees no reason to share the spotlight with, in the late John McCain's words, a "gas station with nukes." China is well aware of Putin's stated ambition to bring all the territory ruled by Czar Nicholas II back under direct rule from Moscow, and it knows from Germany's experience in World War I what happens when you have a wildly corrupt and incompetent ally with delusions of grandeur. You get sucked into a war you don't want and can't win.

Case in point. The so-called Siberia 2 gas pipeline is supposed to connect the gas fields in western Siberia to China and bring 50 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually with it. It was to be a joint development project between Russia and China. The Chinese have pulled the plug on their contribution to the project and are demanding Russia provide steep discounts for the gas the pipeline provides.

Assassination Attempts

Two significant political assassination attempts have occurred in Ukraine in the last week. The wife of Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov, chief of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, is the victim of a poisoning attempt.

The suspected poisoning of Ms. Budanova was first reported by the Ukrainian news outlet Babel. It said that doctors found a large amount of heavy metals in Ms. Budanova’s system that are “not used in any way in everyday life and military affairs.”

Mr. Budanov had not fallen ill, the Ukrainian officials said.

I'm not sure going after Budanov's wife is the best evolutionary strategy, but someone thought the potential pain was worth the effort. Budanova works as an anti-corruption investigator, so it is possible that this is an intramural squabble and Budanov was not the target.

A more bizarre happening involved an aide to Ukraine's commander-in-chief, General Valery Zaluzhny,

The special defense prosecutor’s office of Ukraine’s central region said that the aide, Maj. Gennadiy Chastyakov, had returned to his home on the outskirts of Kyiv on Monday with birthday gifts from colleagues that included a box containing six grenades. The prosecutor’s office said that one of the grenades had been picked up by the major’s son.

While taking the grenade from the boy, “the officer pulled the ring, which caused the explosion,” the office said in a statement.

The blast killed Chastyakov and wounded two of his children. There is literally nothing about this story that passes the smell test. The question is why the people telling it don't think we are owed the respect of a believable lie.

Prisoner Exchanges on Hiatus

I've previously noted that prisoner exchanges represented one of the few, if not the only, diplomatic contact between Russia and Ukraine (Putin's War, Week 73. Putin Eludes Arrest, Black Sea Grain Initiative Dies, and Ukraine's Offense Continues to Grind Away – RedState). There were a total of 48 formal prisoner exchanges, the last being on August 7, when 22 Ukrainian soldiers returned from captivity. Ukraine has made several proposals to restart the exchanges, but Russia has not replied. My guess is that there are two factors at work. First, the more Ukrainians who return from captivity, the more we learn about Russian violations of their treaty obligations. Second, the Russians are convinced that by halting exchanges, they will damage the Ukrainian will to fight. This is the same reasoning behind the deliberate Russian missile and drone attacks on civilian targets. 

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Crimean Television Hacked

This has happened before, but the fact that it is still happening is significant.


Things That Make You Go "Hmmmm"

Operational Level

General Winter Arrives

Massive Russian Drone Attack Fails

This night's Shahed strikes could have marked the beginning of the Russian winter strike campaign. There may be a period of increasing intensity of UAV strikes designed to force AD ammo expenditure before more advanced missiles are used against priority targets.

Waiting for the "Big One"

It has been nearly 60 days since the last major Russian missile attack on Ukraine.

The graph shows how the pattern of Russian attacks has changed over time. The last time there was a lull similar to what is happening now, it was followed by nearly two months of intense attacks. The volume of Shahed drone attacks, including the largest Shahed attack of the war last Saturday (Russia launches largest drone attack on Ukraine), indicates the Russians are mapping radar and anti-aircraft coverage in preparation for a concerted blitz on Ukraine's energy infrastructure.

More Assistance to Ukrainian Air Defense

As the war moves into its second winter, everyone is anticipating the Russians will launch another campaign against Ukraine's heat and electric grid. To counter this, a 20-nation coalition in the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, formerly called the Ramstein Contact Group, is pooling resources to increase the flow of air defense systems to Ukraine.

Ukrainian Drone Blitz of Russia

Sunday, Ukraine launched a massive drone attack on targets in Russia. The Russians claim to have shot down 24 of the estimated 35 drones launched. 

One known target was the Smolensk Aviation Factory.

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I interpret this as an exercise in "sending a message." In 2022, Ukraine did not engage in a tit-for-tat during the "battle of the generators," see Putin's War, Week 39. The Battle of the Generators, I think this wave of attacks at targets inside of Russia is a signal that it will not hesitate to turn out the lights in large parts of Russia this time around.

"Watch Where You're...!!!"

The commanding officer of Russian troops facing the Ukrainian minimalist offensive in Kherson died when he had a close encounter of the worst kind with a Russian mine.

New Weapons

Ukraine Steals Iranian IP

Ukraine's "Backfire" Drone

The Ukrainian defense industry is fielding its first homegrown long-range drone. It has the range to reach targets that had previously been hard to hit and is supposed to be resistant to jamming.

Combat Operations

The tempo of Russian ground operations is accelerating around the Avdiivka Salient. As I posted a couple of updates ago, Russian sources are saying that the Russian high command is fixated on eliminating the salient as a political gift to Putin before the first of the year. Avdiivka has been under Ukrainian control since 2014, and the salient, of which Avdiivka is the tip, poses a threat to the Russian presence in Donetsk. If the salient is eliminated, the threat is removed, giving Russia possession of most of the historical area of Donetsk. The Russian obsession with reclaiming the historical borders of the Donbas oblasts of Luhansk and Donetsk has been reported on for over a year.

There is no doubt that Russia would prefer to carry out the textbook method of attacking the salient at its shoulders and encircling the defenders in a pocket that can be gradually demolished. That said, it is also obvious that the Russians are happy to try to sledgehammer their way through the Avdiiva defenses and drive the defenders out the hard way.

What is unknown is the effect the Black Sea storm will have on Russian combat operations. The damage to the power grid and the coastal road and rail network will cause logistics problems. 

The most interesting story could be the fate of Russia's rotary and fixed-wing aviation fleets in Crimea, Occupied Ukraine, and the Russian nerve center of Rostov-on-Don. 

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Just over a month ago, Ukraine hit Russian airbases in Occupied Ukraine with ATACMS missiles (Russia Claims US ATACMS Missiles Hit Two Airbases in Occupied Ukraine). This forced the withdrawal of much of the fleet to Russia. Helicopters were based in Russia, flew to forward area rearm and refuel points in Occupied Ukraine, and staged attacks from there. Any aircraft caught without a hangar in this storm will be damaged. When this storm plowed through, anything at a forward base was scrap metal.

HARM in Action

This is billed to be the first video of the US-made AGM-88 High-Speed Anti-Radiation Missile (HARM) in action. Here, a HARM engages the radar for a Buk-M2 surface-to-air missile system — the missile appears in the lower left at 0:14, if you are doing frame-by-frame. It gets secondary detonations from the missiles.

Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures

Too Cute By Half

In this video, Ukrainian electronic warfare hijacks the video feed from a Russian drone, uses that feed to geolocate its launch point, and then attacks that launch site. I understand the impulse to release this video; bragging rights are important, I can also see the value of not releasing operational techniques in this detail.

Back to the Basics

Here, a Russian soldier goes full Neanderthal and confronts an FPV drone with a stick.

Is it a bad strategy? If the drone has a point detonating warhead, he at least has a chance. It isn't hard to see a time in the near future when dogs trained to alert on drone engine sounds and designated drone shooters with a 12-gauge automatic shotgun are ubiquitous on the battlefield.

Don't Throw Like a Girl

In this video, a drone flies into a Russian fortification. A defender tries to get rid of the drone with suboptimal results. 

Drones Take Out Weapons Positions

Just another indication that the FPV drone has fundamentally changed the battlefield. 

Northern Front

The situation on this front remains largely unchanged. Russian attacks around Kupiansk, in the Kharkiv area, continue but with less intensity.

Kharkiv

There are unconfirmed reports of minor Russian gains near Synivka. Overall, the situation remains stable.


Donbas

Intense combat continues near Bakhmut and around the Avdiivka Salient.

Bahkmut-Klishchiivka-Andriivka

The Russian Army made small gains north of Bakhmut and retook the village of Khromove. 


Avdiivka

Intense fighting continues around the Avdiivka Salient. The focus of the Russian effort seems to have shifted from attempting to break through the shoulders of the salient and create an encirclement to bashing their way forward to take the city of Avdiivka. 

Russian sources claim a foothold has been gained in the industrial zone of Avdiivka, near the "starburst" icon at the intersection of the M-30 and H-20 highways. However, there is no firm evidence this happened.

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Southern Front

The focus of action on this front remains in Kherson. The lines remain essentially unchanged.

Zaporizhzhia

Robotyne-Verbove- Novoprokopivka;

Minor advances were made by Ukraine south of Robotyne.


Kherson

The Ukrainian offensive seems to have stopped. It could be because of weather, or because logistics can't support or sustain a significant effort.

Collaborationist Police Station Destroyed

Ukraine has been carrying out a campaign since early in the war to impose a cost of collaborating with Russian civil authorities. This includes criminal prosecution of civilians who aided the secessionist referendum in 2022 (Ukraine: Organizers of sham elections face prosecution ) and the targeted killing of quislings. The attack described in the thread below killed four police officers and wounded 17 more. The target was most likely the collaborationists.

Rear Areas

Crimea

Storm Makes Kerch Strait Bridge Vulnerable to Attack

After the attacks on the Kerch Strait Bridge, the Russians invested in a lot of passive, old-school defensive devices like nets and booms. Most of that has been swept away. We can nearly guarantee the Ukrainians will make another run at that bridge before the Russians can replace the protective devices.

Russia

Factory Fire

Transformer Substation Attacked by Drone

Tunnel Explosion

An explosion has temporarily closed Russia's longest tunnel.

Russian media reports that a tank car caught fire while the train was in the tunnel. Some Ukrainian sources are claiming it was a Ukrainian special forces operation. Regardless of the cause, Russia's main railway connection with China is closed.

Migrants Conscripted

I've posted on Russia's policy of conscripting migrants into the military (Putin's War, Week 79. Surovikin Line Penetrated as Russia Staggers Toward a '1917 Moment' in Zaporizhzhia – RedState). As Russia needs migrants to fill vacant jobs, I don't see this as a great strategy. But it is also a sign that despite the happy talk from Putin's supporters, things are tougher in Russia than they want us to believe.

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What's Next

The war is moving into a quieter period because of the weather. The Russians seem to be intent on reducing the Avdiivka Salient, but I don't think that will go very far. I'm still convinced that the operational concept in Kherson is "let's see what happens." 

While the world is focused on political skulduggery, both sides will be rebuilding and getting ready for the mini-campaign season in February, before the mud season hits, and there will be another military effort by Ukraine next spring, though I think with less fanfare than this year.

The wildcard, as always, is the unmeasurable. As Napoleon said, in war, the moral is to the physical as three is to one. I think more pressure is being brought to bear on Putin from the families of Russian soldiers, dead and alive, than is generally realized. I also think all the evidence indicates that the Russian Army is incapable of major offensive operations that gain tens of kilometers of ground. Don't be shocked to read of either a mass surrender or serial incidents of "combat refusal." 

On the Ukrainian side, there are indications that there are growing divisions between the politics of the war and what the generals seem capable of delivering. I wouldn't be shocked at a shakeup in the Ukrainian high command after the first of the year. A nasty, public fight in Kiev will have a big impact on how the West views Zelensky and his chances for winning this war.

Streiff

Former infantry officer, CGSC grad and Army Operations Center alumnus. Also an amateur historian (Colonial America) and a dabbler in historical fiction.
RedState member since 2004. "He would rather pinch off his own head than admit he's wrong" -- Daily Kos. Follow me on Twitter. 

Read more by Streiff
Tags: RUSSIA UKRAINE PUTIN'S WAR

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