Putin's War, Week 82. Russia Dissed at the UN and the War Moves Toward Rasputitsa

By streiff | 2:15 PM on September 21, 2023
The opinions expressed by contributors are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of RedState.com.
Noor Ullah via Vecteezy Free Stock

Well, here we are at Week 82 of Vladimir Putin's war of aggression against Ukraine. The war on the frontlines has sort of wound down, though the Russian situation is coming to resemble a Jenga game rather than a coherent operational plan. As large-scale operations slow down, the political front is becoming key. There, the thing to watch is how the next round of Ukraine aid fares in Congress, while keeping an eye on the slap-fight between Ukraine on the one hand and Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and a few other European countries over allowing Ukrainian grain to enter domestic markets. Coalition warfare is difficult in the best of times; maintaining a coalition in the face of intra-alliance friction and the domestic politics of the various partners can quickly become insuperable.

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Here are some of my past updates. For all my Ukraine War coverage, click here.

Putin's War, Week 81

Putin's War, Week 80. Ukraine's Offensive Continues Slow Progress as Fingers Are Pointed

Putin's War, Week 79. Surovikin Line Penetrated as Russia Staggers Toward a '1917 Moment' in Zaporizhzhia

Putin's War, Week 78. Prigozhin Crashes, Two Russian Bomber Bases and Moscow Hit by Drones

Putin's War, Week 77. The Ruble Nosedives, a Breakthrough Looms, and Crimea Faces Isolation

Putin's War, Week 76. Russia Shut out of Peace Conference and Its Black Sea Gambit Backfires

Putin's War, Week 75. Putin Cucked, Moscow Droned Again, and the Industrial War Hits High Gear

Putin's War, Week 74. The Crack in the Russian Wall Appears and Ben & Jerry's Employees Join the Russian Army

Putin's War, Week 73. Putin Eludes Arrest, Black Sea Grain Initiative Dies, and Ukraine's Offense Continues to Grind Away

Putin’s War, Week 72. Ukraine Misses NATO Membership but Still Wins and Ground Combat Gains Velocity

Putin’s War, Week 71. The Fighters Go to Their Corners

Putin’s War, Week 70. The Reckoning for the Wagner Revolt Continues

Many more are available at this link.


Politico-Strategic Level

Zelensky and Albania vs. Russia at the UN

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was at a meeting of the UN Security Council this week and brought some fireworks. During an address that accused the UN of inaction regarding the invasion of his country, an accusation that is, by the way, true, he questioned why Russia was even at the table. 

He's right on two counts. First, it is a travesty that the blatant aggressor in a war is given a seat at an international meeting about that war. Second, there was never any logical reason for Russia to be allowed to take the USSR's seat at the UN Security Council. That seat should have been awarded to the EU, India, or Brazil. 

Before he got to speak, there was a memorable skirmish between the president of the Security Council, Albania's Ambassador Edi Rama, and the Russian Ambassador Vasily Nebenzya. 

When Zelensky was recognized to speak, Nebenzya objected on the grounds that all members of the Security Council were entitled to speak before any invited guest. Rama reminded Nebenzya that there was a history of guests speaking first, saying, "I want to ensure our Russian colleagues and everyone here that this is not a 'special operation' by the Albanian presidency." 'Special operation' is Putin's term for the invasion of Ukraine. After several minutes of lecturing Ambassador Rama, Rama responded:

I must say that coming from you, all this lecture of violating the rules of this building is quite an impressive show. But as far as you repeat it many times that the violation here is about President Zelenskyy speaking before the council members, there is a solution for this. If you agree, you stop the war, and President Zelenskyy will not take the floor.

This all points to how Russia's invasion of Ukraine has destroyed its political clout with countries not called Iran and North Korea.

Ukraine Was Never About NATO

One of the perpetual lies that crop up is that Russia invaded Ukraine because of NATO. That is obvious nonsense, as Ukraine was not a NATO member and had not been slated to become a member. Some go back further to some alleged promise made to Gorbachev that NATO would not expand. There's no evidence that happened, and a lot of evidence to indicate that the only promise Gorbachev received was that NATO troops would not be stationed in East Germany (they weren't and aren't). Even were it true: a) Gorbachev was the ruler of a defunct nation, so who cares what he was promised, and b) the expansion of NATO into the old Warsaw Pact and former Soviet republics at the request of those countries, and without any aggression toward Russia, reveals the monstrous lie is being told about NATO's responsibility for Russia's criminal acts.

Now, we have more proof. If, as Putin and his clique claim, Russia is really at war with NATO, why is Russia pulling troops away from the border with NATO?

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Shoigu's Insurance Policy

One of the mysteries of Putin's War in Ukraine is the ability of those who were the architects of this disastrous war to avoid consequences for their actions. The biggest mystery is the longevity of Defense Minister and Putin crony Sergei Shoigu. He created a climate of corruption that diverted billions of dollars in defense spending from the military to private bank accounts. The Russian military has been shown to be a sham and humiliated. Russia's bottom line has been permanently injured as its weapons have been shown to be generations behind those produced in the West. This interesting Washington Post piece says it makes perfect sense, if Putin is more afraid of a rival for power than he is of a bleeding ulcer in Ukraine.

Leonid Volkov, the longtime top political aide to jailed Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, said that Putin has no choice but to keep Shoigu in charge because a more talented defense minister would pose a threat to the president — especially if he succeeded in turning the war in Russia’s favor. A triumphant, celebrity military chief would pose a similar threat, potentially galvanizing pro-war nationalists who have rallied around the symbol Z painted on Russia’s tanks, Volkov said.

“Shoigu is irreplaceable, and he’s irreplaceable because he’s very bad,” Volkov wrote on the social media site X, formerly known as Twitter. “Changing Shoigu or someone even worse doesn’t make sense for Putin (there are enough problems without that). And changing him for someone better and who will succeed is too dangerous.”

Will the Russians Use Nukes?

If you are a regular reader of the comments here, there is scarcely a week that goes by without someone stating, without evidence, that if we do "so-and-so," Puitin will nuke all of us. Personally, I think the claim is bullsh**. The last Russian nuclear test was in 1990. That time lapse in testing, plus the twin threat of Russian engineering and maintenance procedures, calls into question how many of their weapons are even functional. The upside of using nuclear weapons to win a ground war against a minor non-nuclear state is dwarfed by the impact this would have on Russia politically, economically, and militarily. And, as Russia has decided to become a client state of China, it is very doubtful that Xi wants his country sucked into a politico-military conflict with the West because Putin decided to go rogue. 

All of that is speculation on my part and YMMV, but it is useful to see how NATO planners viewed the possibility of the USSR using nuclear weapons in the event of a Soviet invasion of Western Europe.

What you see in this document much more closely represents the Russian strategy in Ukraine than any desire for a nuclear Armageddon or the loose bowels of Putin's sympathizers in the West.

Ukrainian Agency and Putin's War

Too often, the future of Putin's War in Ukraine is framed in terms of "What will Putin do?" as if he, alone, controlled the course of the war. If that were true, I wouldn't be writing this update 82 weeks after Russian tanks crossed the Russo-Ukraine frontier and lumbered off toward Kiev. Another common frame is "What will the West do?" Again, this assumes the West controls the arc of the war. This is Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov, chief of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, giving his views on the subject.

Fighting the war as if Putin is writing the rules is just nonsense. Regarding escalation, Russia has done everything it can do short of nuclear missiles. Worrying about escalation is a waste of time and energy.

Trading With the Enemy

Vladimir Lenin, psychopathic murderer and keen observer of the human condition, once said, “When it comes time to hang the capitalists, they will vie with each other for the rope contract.” Most electronic components in Russian cruise missiles are made in Germany or the US. The same governments who prosecute bankers based on "know your customer" laws and regulations are completely flaccid when it comes to national companies selling products to Russia in violation of sanctions.

Perhaps no government is worse than Germany. Before the war, Angela Merkel had created an economic relationship that her childhood home of East Germany could never have imagined. This continues today.

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You/'ve Got to be Sh***ing Me

Sometimes, I think that the Ukrainian government is too "online" for its own good and has somehow concluded that American public opinion and its views on this war are the same as those of the online leftists with the little Ukraine flags in their profiles. 

A few days ago, the designated English language spokesman for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Junior Sergeant Sarah Ashton-Cirillo, went on a wild rant promising that the Ukrainian Armed Forces would hunt down online purveyors of Russian propaganda.

My colleague Bonchie covered the bizarre episode, including the questions raised by Ohio Senator JD Vance about Ashton-Cirillo's role, Ukraine's Transgender Propagandist Goes on a Wild Rant, and J.D. Vance Has Questions.

Ashton-Cirillo, who used to be a progressive Democrat political operative in Nevada named Michael John Cirillo, responded to Vance's questions about his relationship, if any, with US intelligence.

At some point, sanity kicked in, and the Ukrainian military suspended their out-of-control spokesman.

The Ukrainian government has allowed its online presence to be nearly indistinguishable from progressive nutbaggery on X, or Twitter, or whatever. During the 2022 elections, many key Ukraine-supporting accounts openly equated GOP electoral success with victory for Russia. These accounts are also pro-gay, pro-trans, pro-abort, pro-BLM, pro-DIE, etc. In other words, dealing with them makes you want to shower with battery acid and a Brillo pad just to get rid of the stench of perversion. I don't know who thought hiring a progressive Democrat political operative, who happened to be transgender, as the English-speaking face of the Ukrainian Armed Forces was a good idea, but they should be horse-whipped. Letting him go after a US senator at a time when Ukraine needs every friend it can muster in Washington was stupid beyond comprehension.

Attacks On Ukrainian Cities Continue

Russian attacks on Ukrainian population centers continue. Sunday, Kharkiv was hit by repurposed surface-to-air missiles launched from within Russia.

Monday night, another attack was made on grain storage facilities at the Danube port of Reni.

Russian State Television Boosts Invasion of Finland

At some point, we really have to wonder if these television shows advocating nuking London or invading Finland are targeted at a Russian audience to get them ready for the next step, are they targeted at Western intelligence services to convince them that Vladimir Putin is totally nuts, or are they a form of comedy that we don't completely understand. 

Operational Level

The Question of Losses

Every week, I show images of confirmed battle losses of vehicles and aircraft. These are losses captured on video or in photographs. The great unknown is the losses that no one outside the unit sees. This is a prime example.

This Ka-52 will never fly again because of structural damage, and the damage seems to indicate a hard landing that may or may not have resulted from combat action. As I posted in Putin's War, Week 77. The Ruble Nosedives, a Breakthrough Looms, and Crimea Faces Isolation, the Ka-52 is a critical system for the Russians. Only 133 were made for the Russian military, and 42 are known to have been shot down. Had this one not been videoed by chance, it would still be considered a threat. No one knows how many more there are like this one.

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Amateurs Talk Tactics...

...and professionals talk logistics. The war in Ukraine is a logistician's war. The Ukrainians are trying to equip an army-in-the-making. The Russians are trying to resupply an army with lengthy and very constrained lines of communication and lots of chokepoints. Read this thread for some of the implications that can be drawn from a professional logistician looking at a bomb damage assessment.

Command Presence

When the history of this war is written, I think one of the key factors in Russia's inability to quickly rout the Ukrainian Army and take control of the country will have been that Ukraine had the right people in the right places. Zelensky could've hopped "the first thing smoking" to Zurich on February 24. He didn't. The Russian invasion transformed him from a vaguely unserious transitional political figure into a wartime leader. The Ukrainian Ground Forces commander, Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi, was a smart, tough, tactically and politically adept, and charismatic commander. Definitely not what you'd expect from someone trained as a Soviet artillery officer.

More Naval Losses

During the Ukrainian attack on Sevastopol, at least two Russian antiaircraft patrol ships were targeted for attack by unmanned surface vessels (USV). Initial reports claimed that all the USVs were destroyed. Now, there is confirmation that one of them struck the Sergey Kotov, punching a hole in the hull near the propeller shaft.

Russia Drones Ukrainian Airfield

A Russian Lancet suicide drone successfully attacked a Ukrainian airbase in Kryvyi Rih. A MiG-29 was damaged. The attack left a lot of questions unanswered.

The MiGs flying from Kryvyi Rih used AGM-88 HARM anti-radiation missiles to target Russian antiaircraft and counterbattery radars. The site location was leaked on social media a year ago. The airbase has never been attacked by Russian missiles.

There were no antiaircraft defenses around the base capable of detecting and engaging the Lancet attack munition or the surveillance drone that guided it to the target.

Ukrainian Struck at Wagner Group in Sudan?

This is a rather strange story. According to a CNN report, Ukrainian Special Forces carried out attacks on Wagner Group fighters and their local allies in Sudan.

Cool story, bro. What remains unanswered is "why." This strikes me as more likely a case of a source feeding CNN a line of sh** they were predisposed to believe. It will also set Wagner, or whoever they work for today, counterintelligence guys off to chase their tails, so it does have some benefit.

New Weapons

The Crowdfunded Satellite

In August 2022, Ukrainian television host Serhiy Prytula announced an effort to crowdfund the exclusive usage rights to a synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite owned by the Finnish company ICEYE. SAR produces 3-D images rather than flat photography and can function at night and with cloud cover.

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K600 "Rhino" Mine-Clearing Vehicles

South Korea is sending two K600 "Rhino" mine-clearing vehicles to Ukraine. They are built on a Korean copy of an M-1 Tank chassis.

The volume of Russian mines and the dearth of equipment to clear them has been a key factor in the limited progress Ukraine's Spring Offensive has made.

Combat Operations

Operations on the ground had limited progress from last week. While more detail follows below, the thumbnail sketch would be that the Russians continue to push against Ukrainian defenses in the north but with no success. The Ukrainian Army consolidated gains south of Bakhmut and made limited gains in Zaporizhzhia. As I anticipated last week, while the Ukrainians continue to make some gains on the front lines, they seem to be winding down large-scale operations for the season and have started focusing on Russian command and control facilities, reserve troops concentration, artillery, air defense and electronic warfare assets, and logistics infrastructure.

I'm posting this video because it is the only example I've seen of an inside-outside view of a suicide drone attack on a vehicle. In this case, a Ukrainian drone and a Russian vehicle.

Part of the setup for Ukraine's attack on the Black Sea port of Sevastopol (Ukrainian Attack on Russian Fleet Leaves One Ship and One Sub Destroyed With No Nuclear War) that cost the Russians a submarine and landing ship damaged beyond being economically repairable was an attack on Russian-occupied gas drilling platforms that also had radar and antiaircraft installations. These attacks were carried out by Ukrainian special forces from small boats. During the operation, one of the Ukrainian boats came under attack by a Russian Su-27 strike aircraft and took violent evasive action. One of the commandos with the callsign "Conan" fell overboard. His story is at the link.

Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures

Close Encounter of the Worst Kind

This is a lesson in situational awareness. The Russian tank has no idea of the location of the Ukrainian tank despite the video opening with the Ukrainian tank firing at point-blank range and missing its target. The second time's the charm, though. This is why singleton tanks and infantry fighting vehicles prosecuting their own private war is a bad idea.

Are These Russian Marines?

Northern Front

Despite some claims on social media, there is no video evidence, and more importantly, no claims by Russian milbloggers of Russian advances in this area. There are some Ukrainian advances in Donbas that could develop into something, but nothing significant over the last week,

Kharkiv

Svatove-Kupiansk 

The Russians continue to bash away at Ukrainian defensive lines with no noticeable progress.

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Donbas 

Bahkmut-Klishchiivka 

The Ukrainians have consolidated their control of Klishchiivka. This gives Ukraine control of the heights overlooking Bakhmut and the ability to bring any resupply/reinforcement efforts under direct or observed indirect fire. The "consolidated control" is important because this town has changed control several times over the summer.

Putin's War, Week 82. Russia Dissed at the UN and the War Moves Toward Rasputitsa

There are other things happening here that make this area to watch. First, the Russians have reportedly transferred their best units from the Bakhmut area south to confront the Ukrainian offensive toward Tokmak.

Generally, I don't post the "we've had all we can stand" videos that pop up on Russian Telegram channels, but this one is particularly powerful because it dovetails into other similar accounts. These men are members of a Russian mortar unit, and they complain that artillery and non-combat troops are being drafted into assault units, that barrier forces are used to kill men running from battle, and that the artillery ammunition is very unreliable.

New Elections Needed

The Russian occupation forces in Ukraine have been trying to create a Potemkin civil government of collaborators. These quisling governments continue to be targeted by the Ukrainian military and partisan forces.

Southern Front

The Southern Front continues to be the scene of the most intense and, for the Ukrainians, the most productive fighting.

Zaporizhzhia

Robotyne-Verbove-Novoprokopivka 

Two critical things are happening in this area. First, Ukrainian infantry is advancing down the trench lines and clearing laterally instead of moving forward. When you're fighting on open terrain and under observation and artillery fire, the trenches suddenly become the fastest and safest avenues of attack. Second. Ukrainian armor is beginning to be seen beyond the defensive belt outside Verbove.

Putin's War, Week 82. Russia Dissed at the UN and the War Moves Toward Rasputitsa

This matters because the second line of Russian field fortifications is very lightly manned, if it is manned at all. Getting behind the first line of defenses puts you in the enemy's support area. Chewing up the support area will force a retreat from the front lines. The big unknown is how densely the Russians have mined the area behind their first line.

There have been reports of concentrations of Ukrainian mechanized and armored forces inside this salient, so we could still see some mobile action before the campaigning season winds down into a sea of mud.

Kherson 

Artillery and air attacks continue on both sides of the Dnieper River. The Ukrainian lodgement on the left bank of the Dneiper River doesn't seem to be growing. There are commando raids by both sides along the river on islands in the river.

Rear Areas

Crimea

Last update I posted about Crimea becoming just another theater of operations in this war rather than an "escalation" concern warranted soiled panties in Jake Sullivan's National Security Council.

A Russian S-400 surface-to-air missile battery was attacked in Sevastopol. There are no reports on the damage inflicted.

Strikes on key Russia headquarters will become more of a routine affair. The Ukrainian Air Force and homegrown Ukrainian missiles have the range to strike anywhere in the theater. 

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This airbase has been hit twice before ( Airbase in Russian-Occupied Crimea Hit by Devastating Ukrainian Attack and Putin's War, Week 28. The Sitzkrieg Goes Blitzkrieg as Ukraine's Army Moves 50 Kilometers in Two Days) and is probably untenable.

Russia

Ukrainian drone attacks in Russia have become common. This one set off a conflagration at a fuel depot. It has been confirmed by Russian milbolgger "Rybar."

Chkalovsky Airfield, about 20 miles from Moscow, was hit by a commando raid.

What's Next

War is defined by decisions and possibilities. While we may not know the decisions, some of the possibilities are very clear. I think that the transition from offensive action on the front lines to more of the deep battle is becoming apparent. The Ukrainians have neatly shaped the battlefield to make every Russian base and asset a target. The pressure will only increase as more Ukrainian-made strike weapons, like the Nepture ship and land attack missiles, appear. These weapons and the tactics used to make them effective will be used in Donbas over the winter. The debate over ATACMS is still active, with the "escalationists" making a last-ditch defense, but I believe that weapon system will be released to Ukraine in the next 90-120 days.

The battlespace around Bakhmut should be concerning to the Russians. If the more capable units have been withdrawn to the Southern Front and morale is anything like that portrayed in the video in this post, then the Russian Army in that area is teetering on the brink of collapse. Time will tell if this information is accurate.

I still see Ukraine making one final push in the gap they've forced between Verbove and Novoprokopivka. They are through the main defensive belt, and if they can widen the gap and force tanks and infantry fighting vehicles into the Russian support area, they can accomplish a major goal of the offensive by cutting the land bridge linking Russia and Occupied Kherson and Crimea.


Streiff

Former infantry officer, CGSC grad and Army Operations Center alumnus. Also an amateur historian (Colonial America) and a dabbler in historical fiction.
RedState member since 2004. "He would rather pinch off his own head than admit he's wrong" -- Daily Kos. Follow me on Twitter. 

Read more by Streiff
Tags: RUSSIA UKRAINE PUTIN'S WAR

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