Putin's War, Week 83. Zelensky Gets ATACMS From Biden and a Cold Shoulder From McCarthy

By streiff | 7:43 PM on September 28, 2023
The opinions expressed by contributors are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of RedState.com.
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When Russian forces crossed the Ukrainian border on February 24, 2022, some 581 days ago, I don't think anyone, least of all me, imagined that I'd be churning out war updates 19 months later and having my favorite vatniks accuse me of being a "warmonger" for chronicling the events.

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The action during Week 83 was much more political than military. Zelensky was a guest of honor at the United Nations. His visit to Washington didn't get him the coveted opportunity to speak before a Joint Session of Congress, but he didn't come away empty-handed. The visit to Washington laid bare some fault lines inside the GOP that could possibly derail Ukraine aid if the GOP has a working majority in both houses.

Zelensky and Poland's Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki engaged in a public spat over Ukrainian grain imports. At one point, Morawiecki announced Poland would no longer send arms to Ukraine. In the end, they seem to have kissed and made up.

Operationally, the Ukrainians continue to widen one breach in the Surovikin Line and, according to reports from Thursday afternoon, may have created a breakthrough of Russian lines south of Bakhmut.

As always, thanks for reading and the words of encouragement (some of) you send to my bosses. 

Here are some of my past updates. For all my Ukraine War coverage, click here.

Putin's War, Week 82. Russia Dissed at the UN and the War Moves Toward Rasputitsa

Putin's War, Week 81

Putin's War, Week 80. Ukraine's Offensive Continues Slow Progress as Fingers Are Pointed

Putin's War, Week 79. Surovikin Line Penetrated as Russia Staggers Toward a '1917 Moment' in Zaporizhzhia

Putin's War, Week 78. Prigozhin Crashes, Two Russian Bomber Bases and Moscow Hit by Drones

Putin's War, Week 77. The Ruble Nosedives, a Breakthrough Looms, and Crimea Faces Isolation

Putin's War, Week 76. Russia Shut out of Peace Conference and Its Black Sea Gambit Backfires

Putin's War, Week 75. Putin Cucked, Moscow Droned Again, and the Industrial War Hits High Gear

Putin's War, Week 74. The Crack in the Russian Wall Appears and Ben & Jerry's Employees Join the Russian Army

Putin's War, Week 73. Putin Eludes Arrest, Black Sea Grain Initiative Dies, and Ukraine's Offense Continues to Grind Away

Putin’s War, Week 72. Ukraine Misses NATO Membership but Still Wins and Ground Combat Gains Velocity

Putin’s War, Week 71. The Fighters Go to Their Corners

Many more are available at this link.

Politico-Strategic Level

Zelensky At the White House

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky took the occasion of a meeting of the UN Security Council to visit with Joe Biden. I write a lot about the "push of pike," so to speak, along the line of contact in Kharkiv, Donbas, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, but always be mindful that the battlefield is only one facet of the war. And unless it is decisive, it may not even be the most important facet. Keeping in mind the words of Karl von Clausewitz, "war is a continuation of political intercourse by other means," and Georges Clemenceau, "War is too important to be left to the generals," how this war ends will largely be decided in Washington, Brussels, and Beijing.

Zelensky's job is to keep Washington and Brussels on board with his war aims. On the whole, I'd give him high marks for building an international coalition to fight Russia to a stop on the battlefield and, contrary to Moscow's propaganda, get economic sanctions that have battered Russia's economy and industry. The pressure is beginning to show in some of the interactions between Zelensky and some European leaders. That is why it is critical that he keep Washington on his side.

Though Zelensky was able to meet with Biden, McCarthy denied him the chance to address a joint session of Congress. 

This reflects the ambivalence of a growing number of Republican Representatives toward continuing assistance for Ukraine.

ATACMS On the Way

While Zelensky may have had a suboptimal visit to Washington, according to multiple reports, Biden agreed to release the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) to Ukraine. The ATACMS issue is a prime example of Jake Sullivan's "interagency" slow-walking necessary arms to Ukraine for fear of "escalation" when the cost is a longer, deadlier, and costlier war; see Biden White House Poised to Send ATACMS Tactical Ballistic Missile to Ukraine. The formal announcement will come from Ukraine after it has used the first one. This is a good thread on the impact of ATACMS when it arrives.

As the Germans have followed our lead on the types of weapons provided to Ukraine, everyone thinks the German Taurus cruise missile will be next.

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Appropriations Wars

As the government flounders toward a shutdown, US aid to Ukraine has become a point of contention. Last week, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy cut ally Marjorie Taylor Greene off and the knees by a 12th-hour decision to include Ukraine aid in the Defense and Foreign Operations Appropriations Bill; see Speaker McCarthy Changes Course on Ukraine Funding in Defense Appropriation Bill.

That same ambivalence is not evident in the Senate, where only a few senators (Rand Paul and JD Vance immediately come to mind) have objections to supporting Ukraine.

While the supporters of Ukraine aid have a supermajority in both chambers, I get the feeling that both Biden and the war opponents are trying to make Ukraine aid a partisan issue. Should that come to pass, it means trouble for Zelensky. Fortunately, not everyone is signing up to use Ukraine as a political football.

Black Sea Fleet

Last week, Russia's Black Sea Fleet took one on the chin. The complex drone and cruise missile attack that turned a Kilo-class submarine and Ropucha-class landing ship into razor blades and damaged a dry dock facility along with a Project 1239-class anti-aircraft missile corvette (Ukrainian Attack on Russian Fleet Leaves One Ship and One Sub Destroyed With No Nuclear War) was followed up with another complex attack. This one involved tearing a hole in the early warning and anti-aircraft umbrella covering Sevastopol, striking the alternate command post for the Black Sea Fleet, and then hitting the main command post; see Russia's Black Sea Fleet Headquarters Demolished and Commanding Admiral Presumed Dead. The claim of the dead admiral is still up in the air. The Russians have produced some poorly edited and mislabeled videos as proof of life. What they haven't shown is the rear admiral.

On 27 September, a video appeared in the Russian media showing Viktor Sokolov, Commander of the Black Sea Fleet, presenting awards to the football team that won the army championship, FC Chornomorets Sevastopol. Photos and videos of Sokolov began to be posted after the Special Operation Forces of Ukraine's Armed Forces announced his death.

Source: Russian federal TV channel Zvezda ("Star"); Russian channels and FC Chornomorets Sevastopol on Telegram and VK

Details: The Pervy Sevastopolsky channel reported that Sokolov was supposedly presenting awards to football players "at this moment".

The Zvezda channel also posted a video commentary by Sokolov in which he talked about the "feats" of the Black Sea Fleet and mentioned the fact that the 810th Marine Brigade had been awarded the Order of Admiral Fyodor Ushakov.

However, there are no time markers on the video, Sokolov mentions no events that might give an approximate indication of the time of his statements, and of course he does not refute the media reports of his death.

Moreover, both events − FC Chornomorets’ victory and the awarding of the Order of Ushakov to the 810th Brigade − took place long before the attack by Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces on the Russian Black Sea Fleet headquarters in occupied Sevastopol.

In addition to the dead admiral, there were allegedly 34 staff officers and 105 enlisted technicians killed at the same time. This is a helluva blow to any headquarters, even allowing for some exaggeration.

Still a Bad Look

Russia continues to punch away at Ukrainian cities. The target list has shifted from major population centers to the Danube ports and their grain storage facilities.

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The Russians are becoming much more sophisticated, by Russian standards, in their targeting. A year ago, they launched a volley of missiles at the target, and Ukrainian air defense would routinely shoot down 90 percent of them. Now, Russian cruise missiles use waypoints selected to avoid radar detection and anti-aircraft installations. At the same time, the suicide drones are sent directly at the target area to overwhelm command and control networks and missile sites.

In It For the Long Haul?

Defense Minister Sergei "The Plywood Marshal" Shoigu announced that Russia anticipated the war in Ukraine lasting until 2025 before its goals were achieved.

I think there are two things to take away from this speech. First, Shoigu admits significant issues in equipment and training need fixing. How that gets accomplished in the middle of a war, where Russian policy is that no one rotates home until the war is over, is anyone's guess. The 2025 date is a special message to Washington, not a timeline. Biden's 2024 budget request has money for the Ukraine war. I think this is Shoigu saying that Russia will fight until it wins. Do I think it will? No. It won't win because it can't unless, as I noted earlier, Zelensky's support in the West dries up.

I'm not a John McCain fan, but...

Operational Level

Turnabout is Fair Play

The Ukrainians have been aggressive in using psychological operations during the war. They've employed a phone/text service that Russian soldiers who wish to surrender can use to close the deal. Russian prisoners are allowed to call home. In some cases, Ukrainian soldiers have used the phones of dead Russians to call their families. That might not be in the best of taste, but it would be hard to argue against its impact. The Russians have been slow off the mark to do the same. This probably stems from what appears to be a widespread belief that the Ukrainians are untermenschen, or whatever the word is in German, that has contributed to the horrific atrocities committed by Russian forces on Ukrainian civilians and prisoners.

This thread is a story of how one Russian attempt to convince Ukrainian soldiers to surrender went awry.

More About Undocumented Losses

Last week, I talked a bit about the known losses of Ka-52 attack helicopters versus the losses we don't know about. This is an interesting infographic on losses of Russian tactical aircraft outside Ukraine that can be documented from open source. Again, these are losses mentioned in open media and don't reflect losses not covered or the operational readiness of the fleet.

This video of broken down vehicles heading back to Russia for repair is one of the unknowns in the war. What is unknown is the number sitting in motor parks unable to move.

Russians being Russian

The Russian Army, and before it the Soviet Army and I imagine the Tsar's army as well, has a tradition of hazing called dedovshchina where seniority is more important than rank. It is a prison-like "fish" system where newbies were required to give up property and sexual favors to those above them in the hierarchy. Unsurprisingly, this extends into how the Russian Army operates in combat.

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Ukrainian Weapons Production Targeted

I've posted about foreign companies moving weapons production facilities into Ukraine; this is the first time I've encountered a facility moving out because Russian missiles have hit it.

We don't know what assembly line is referred to, though there is a hint that it might be the Stugna anti-tank missile facility, where it was when it was hit, or where it is moving to. All of that shows good Operational Security (OPSEC). 

I Hate It When That Happens

The Ukrainians attack the Russian airfield with such regularity that I no longer include them in updates unless something unusual happens.

Tuesday, Ukrainian drones attacked the Russian airfield at Khalino in Kursk Oblast of the Russian Federation. The target was the fuel and lubricant tank farms. One of the drones was forced down by Russian electronic warfare systems. The base commander and several other senior officers rushed to the scene to inspect the downed intruder. Read the rest below.

New Weapons

M1A! Abrams Tanks Have Arrived

The Abrams, even without the latest upgrades, is one of, if not the world's premier battle tanks. Thirty-one (the number of tanks in a Ukrainian tank b) have finally slow-walked their way to Ukraine. Tank crews were trained, and one has to assume that simulators were sent so they could retain their proficiency. The Department of Defense is apparently mulling over releasing another 31. 

It's not like we have a shortage of them.

Let me say it again. The Abrams is not a war-changer, but it adds a punch to Ukrainian armor that overmatches anything Russia can field by a couple of generations.

As an aside, within days of the approval to send Abrams tanks to Ukraine, Russian social media supporters claimed they had been destroyed in battle. Get ready to see this picture over and over again.

About That North Korean Ammunition

Some of it has arrived and has been captured. It is sort of what you'd expect of something manufactured in North Korea and passed through Russian hands.

I speculated last week that North Korea was probably sending steel shell casings to Russia to be filled with explosives there. Good, old-fashioned Russian corruption would explain some of this.

Combat Operations

Institute for the Stuy of War has a good thread that encapsulates a lot of what we're seeing. To save you the trouble of clicking through to a long threat, I've transcribed it below.

Russian forces continue to expend significant combat power on counterattacking to hold their current positions and appear to be resisting the operationally sound course of action of falling back to prepared defensive positions further south. 

The Russian command constructed a multi-echeloned defense in southern Ukraine that would have allowed the Russian command to deploy defending Russian forces in depth throughout subsequent defensive layers. 

Russian forces have instead expended considerable amounts of manpower, materiel, and effort to hold the forwardmost defensive positions in southern Ukraine and have only withdrawn to subsequent defensive positions at the direct threat of Ukrainian advances.

Russian forces’ elastic defense requires that one echelon of Russian forces slows a Ukrainian tactical advance while a second echelon of forces counterattacks to roll back that advance. 

Counterattacking requires significant morale and relatively high combat capabilities, and the Russian military appears to rely on relatively elite units and formations to counterattack, likely at the expense of these forces’ degradation. 

American military analysts @KofmanMichael and @RALee85 recently assessed that Russian forces have underutilized the depth of their defense and have yet to execute ”a true defense in depth” in which Russian forces trade ”space for attrition.”

Kofman and Lee also assessed that the Russian command’s decision to defend forward has allowed Ukrainian artillery units to attrit Russian forces. 

ISW has observed a concerted Ukrainian effort to attrit Russian forces even as Ukrainian forces make significant tactical gains, and the Russian resistance to withdrawing to defensive positions further south is likely compounding the asymmetric attrition gradient. 

Russian counterattacks aimed at holding forward positions have been tactically significant, but it remains unclear if these counterattacks will have lasting operational importance.

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I think this is fair as far as it goes, but it skips over some other key happenings. The big difference is that the Russian tactical response has become rote. Being predictable in combat is never a good thing. The use of better quality forces —I hesitate to use the term elite because the Russians never had anything that would qualify as "elite" in a Western army — to counterattack simply guarantees that your elite forces become garbage over time. As Kipling observed over a century ago, it doesn't matter how well-trained you are; you die just the same.

The use of combat drones in the Ukrainian Army is decentralized. There are drone units that hunt down Russian artillery, but platoons also have drone units that hunt down Russians in their bunkers.

Finally, no matter how much woofing the Russians and their social media compadres do about the amount of ammunition Russia can produce, what is obvious is that Russia's (and North Korea's) industrial base is not a match for 13 other countries combined. Neither does the Russian maintenance system have the capacity or know-how to repair artillery and vehicles and return them to the front in a timely fashion...if ever.

Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures

Knock, Knock

Why Cheap Drones Might Not Survive

Though foreshadowed by the last Armenian-Azerbaijani War, Putin's War in Ukraine has showcased the potential of drones of all kinds. The New York Times has a very informative article titled, Budget Drones Prove Their Value in a Billion-Dollar War, that explores the "shade tree mechanic" ethos that has become the standard in Ukrainian drone units. The tweet is fairly long so I've transcribed it.

"Drones made of plastic foam or plastic are harder to find on radar. Ukraine buys them from commercial suppliers, along with parts such as radios, cameras, antennas and motors. The drone units mix and match parts until they find combinations that can fly past sophisticated Russian air defenses."

"Operators also switch between frequencies mid-flight or fly close to the ground to evade Russian units trying to track them. Unlike some military drones, Ukraine’s simpler versions fly without GPS navigation, which is both an advantage and a disadvantage; without it, pilots and their navigators instead must rely on landmarks on the ground such as buildings, roads or intersections to find their way." 

"Ukraine’s teams said that they preferred flying multiple missions with cheap drones, knowing they would lose some, rather than spending more for small advantages on any particular type of drone. We use cheaper wings." 

“The doctrine of war is changing,” said Pvt. Yevhen Popov, the commander of a national police unit fighting in one of the bulges. “Drones that cost hundreds of dollars are destroying machines costing millions of dollars,” he added.

"Gremlin called out way points, altitudes and headings. Hacker flew hugging the landscape, below Russian jamming signals and above the sweeping, dense minefields that have thwarted the advance of Ukraine’s infantry and armored vehicles, gravely wounding soldiers each day." 

"Even as they hunt the Russians, though, they are being pursued by enemy drone teams themselves. Russian drones regularly overfly the positions of drone reconnaissance units, a few hundred yards up, and pilots are a priority target." 

"Through the summer, Lieutenant Arutiunian’s pilots lost a dozen drones that were blinded by jamming or shot down. Improvising on the fly, they tweaked their equipment, flight paths and frequencies with each loss." 

"A day earlier, Hacker had flown his plastic-foam plane and its GoPro camera directly over two of Russia’s most sophisticated electronic warfare systems, a Moskva-1 and Borisoglebsky. Each could scan for radio signals and triangulate their source, but both missed Hacker’s drone and its radio signal until it was too late. Lieutenant Arutiunian said he was able to quickly call in an artillery attack that destroyed both systems."

 "The solution his teams have created — using drones with few metal parts and frequently shifting radio frequencies — will most likely work for a few weeks, before Russian forces make their own adjustments and find a way to jam the signals or shoot down the Ukrainian drones. Meanwhile... we are already working on something else.” 

Great reporting by @AndrewKramerNYT and @lynseyaddario on how quickly Ukrainian drone forces can adjust their tactics and procedures to deal with a constantly evolving Russian CUAS and drone threat.

 A key elements in the article is a low cost UAV solution that allows for immediate adjustments in tactics and technologies. But as the authors state, the adversary also can adapt just as quickly. The key is to stay one step ahead. 

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A few updates ago, see Putin's War, Week 79. Surovikin Line Penetrated as Russia Staggers Toward a '1917 Moment' in Zaporizhzhia, I posted on Ukraine using cardboard drones that carried an 11-pound payload.

When I was a kid, there was a persistent urban legend that a cure for cancer existed, but Pharma suppressed it because of all the money they would lose if people knew about it. Reading this and looking at the tendency of our defense industry to focus on single, gold-plated, "perfect" weapons, it makes me wonder if we could ever imitate this level of initiative because of the amount of money lost to the military-industrial-Congressional complex Eisenhower warned us about.

Northern Front

Combat action on the Northern Front was focused on the area around Bakhmut. The Kharkiv area had no significant combat or instances of ground changing hands.

Kharkiv

Svatove-Kupiansk 

The Russians carried out a missile attack on the highway bridge at Senkove.

So what does this mean? Or does it mean anything?

If you recall, last winter, the Russians launched an offensive in this area that had minor success measured in the hundreds of yards. It has been bogged down for months. Rumors were circulating that Russia was moving significant forces to this area for a spring offensive to force the Ukrainians to draw off reserves from their main effort in the south. 

This could be a sign that the Russians are cutting the major supply route to Ukrainian forces in preparation for an attack. It could mean that the Russians have denuded their forces in the area to use as reinforcements in the south or around Bakhmut and want to prevent a Ukrainian attack until the rain stops the action for a couple of months. Or it could mean that a Russian missileer decided that the day wouldn't be complete without shooting one at the bridge.

Not enough credible information is coming out of the area to make a definitive assessment. Still, my gut feeling is that it is to prevent offensive operations by the Ukrainians in the near future.

Donbas 

Bahkmut-Klishchiivka 

Ukrainian forces have established control over Klishchiivka and Andriivka, south of Bakhmut. This is critical for two reasons. First, the Russians expended a lot of effort to dislodge the Ukrianians from those towns...or what remains of the towns...and seem to have conceded their loss. This is a change from the summer's fighting when the fighting was a seesaw. Second, these gains give Ukraine the possession of the high ground dominating the approaches to Bakhmut. Reinforcement and resupply operations will have to be conducted while under direct and drone observation.

This map shows the frontline trace and the topography side by side. (Sorry, my graphics kung fu is not up to the task of combining them.) The arrows connect the towns of Bakhmut and Klishchiivka.

Credit: Battle map from the Institute for the Study of War's interactive Ukraine map; topographic data is open source via topographic-map.com.

There is a lot of information and images from previously trustworthy sources that indicate, in the words of my favorite vatniks, "the wheels are coming off" of the Russian Army around Bakhmut. 

As I was cleaning this post up, there was news of a Ukrainian breakthrough at Andriivka, just south of Klishchiivka, threatening a major Russian line of communications. We'll see how this pans out.

Deep Battle Continues

Southern Front

This front remains the scene of the heaviest action. Something significant seems about to happen in Zaporizhzhia. The operational tempo has not slowed, leading me to believe that the Ukrainian offensive has not reached its culminating point yet. The dearth of information on the fighting is similar to what we've seen when both sides stop talking before a major event.

Zaporizhzhia

Robotyne-Verbove 

There are reports that four Ukrainian mechanized companies have moved through the last barriers between the Novoprokopivka-Verbove salient and Tokmak.

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In addition, most of Novprokopivka is now under Ukrainian control. Most, perhaps all, of Verbove has been taken by the Ukrainian Army. There are reports on Russian milblogger Telegram channels that the Russian paratroopers defending Verbove voluntarily withdrew from the t is facing encirclement.

If this report is true, the next thing we should see is a general withdrawal from the frontline fortifications toward the next line near Tokmak to reduce the frontage, increase troop density, and reestablish a coherent defensive line. The Russian commander has shown that he's more inclined to launch repeated counterattacks against Ukrainian advances than to think about the next step, so don't be shocked at furious assaults on Ukrainian positions instead of an orderly shortening of defensive lines.

Kherson 

The situation along the Dnieper River and the Ukrainian bridgehead across the river remains unchanged. 

Rear Areas

Little action has been reported in Crimea or Russia over the last week.

Russia

Trenches as a Grift

What's Next

My forecast today is pretty much as it has been for the last 60 days. Ukraine will create a breach of the Surovikin Line near Verbove. If the reports from today are true, Tokmak and the highway/rail network in that city that comprises the "land bridge" from Russia to Crimea will be under constant artillery and rocket fire. This will call into question the viability of all Russian forces from that point west, and I think it will prompt another retreat, much like we saw when Russia abandoned the right bank of the Dnieper.

The Ukrainians will use ATACMSUkrainians in the next 60 days. Whether it is the 300 km-range unitary warhead or the 140 km-range cluster warhead, it will put all of Russia's logistics network in jeopardy.

The question remains whether the Ukrainians can make enough of the right kind of progress to marginalize the doubters. And if the coalition that has been assembled holds together until the conditions are met for negotiations with Russia, that is not merely the prelude to another unprovoked attack in the future.



Streiff

Former infantry officer, CGSC grad and Army Operations Center alumnus. Also an amateur historian (Colonial America) and a dabbler in historical fiction.
RedState member since 2004. "He would rather pinch off his own head than admit he's wrong" -- Daily Kos. Follow me on Twitter. 

Read more by Streiff

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