Data Analyst Has Some 'Spooky' Halloween News for Dems Ahead of Midterms

I think it's fair to say we all have a lot of proper doubt in the polling. 

We've seen all kinds of polling going on this cycle, even fake polling companies. Of course, we shouldn't let the polls dissuade us, either because they say it's a lock or because they say it is a likely loss; we should just go vote and bring it home. Because that's the only "poll" that counts in the end. 

CNN's Harry Enten explained why there could be some scary news for Democrats hiding in that data. 

Enten explained how the Democrats needed to win in at least two states where the president won by double digits in the last presidential race in order to take the Senate. 

Harry Enten looks over the 'spooky data' for the Democrats heading into the 2026 midterms: Harry Enten: "They need to win in states that Donald John Trump didn't just win two years ago, but won by double digits. Senate flips in states that the party lost by ten or more points in the last presidential election. The number is 0 since 2011. There have been times in which the polls actually suggested, hey, Republicans might actually lose in some of these Trump won states. And then it didn't happen. And we've seen it happen time and in time out. GOP has beat the final Senate poll average by 4.1 points in states Trump won in the prior presidential election. So if the past polling errors hold in these Trump one states, then all of a sudden Republicans are able to hold on to the United States Senate and with ease." Wave goodbye, to the blue wave.

— Eric Abbenante (@EricAbbenante) October 31, 2026

Enten pointed out that, historically, that is a tall order, and that it has happened zero times in the last 15 years. He noted there was polling that suggested it would happen, but then it didn't. 

Then Enten explained that the GOP has beaten the final Senate polling average by 4.1 points in close races in the states won in the previous election. He said if you took a polling average of where they all stood now, they're all within that range. 

So he says that gives some "spooky, spooky" concerns to the Democrats that the polls could be wrong, once again as they have been in the past. 

Enten detailed that if you put that polling average over the field, if it were off by that much in those close races, it would give Republicans Michigan, Ohio, Iowa, Kansas, Texas, and Alaska. He said that would leave the Senate in the hands of the Republicans, 52-48, even if you gave Maine to the Democrats. 

So he said that if those past polling errors held, the GOP could win with ease. And whatever the numbers, all those states are winnable if Republicans get out in force and vote. 

What was funny was that John Berman said, "Temper expectations" - that comment appeared to be aimed at Democrats. 

We will find out soon enough, with the only poll that really matters - the election. 

Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must maintain control of both chambers of Congress.

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