Thune Predicts GOP Outperforms Polls to Hold Senate

Sen. John Thune (R-SD) is a man in a hot seat. As the Senate Majority Leader, he plays a key role in not only handling the business of the U.S. Senate, but in keeping the Senate in Republican hands. Now, the prospect of that happening in this 2026 midterm election is anything but certain, and that has to be on the senator's mind day and night; in fact, it had better be on every Republican's mind day and night, in and out of elected office.

He's sounding an optimistic tone, though. He's been busy, running around the country to help prop up Republican candidates, and facing a lot of voters, some of whom aren't terribly pleased with his performance, most notably the failure to pass the SAVE America Act. But Sen. Thune is banking his hopes on one thing, and it's something we've seen in the last few election cycles, namely, that the pollsters may be badly underestimating Republican support. 

Thune, in an interview with Fox News Digital on the trail supporting Sen. Pete Ricketts, R-Neb., was still optimistic about the GOP’s chances.

"I think there are a lot of races right now just looking at the polling that are up for grabs," Thune said. "I mean you could call them jump balls, however you want to say it. They're margin of error races, and there are some that are maybe a little out of the margin. But I do think the polling right now, like it has been in past elections, under-reflects the Republican vote."

"And I think you'll see some of that. So we're not giving up on any of them," he continued.

The Republicans doubtless have their own internal polling as well, but for now, at least, we don't have any indications as to what that may look like. But we have seen at least one prominent pollster and poll analyst cautioning Democrats about getting too happy, mentioning that Republicans have been badly under polled in recent cycles. We have also seen one polling firm that turned out to be an outright fraud.

So, polls may not be the best indicator right now. But, polling regardless, this is going to be a nail-biter for both parties, and that's for sure and for certain. Senator Thune, though, is downplaying that, and talking instead, correctly, about turnout; we've known for months that this was going to be a turnout election, and that estimate hasn't changed.

"Turnout's going to be a big part of whether or not we're successful or not. And in every state I've been in, that is a clear-eyed focus of our candidates," Thune said.

"That's where resources are being invested. And I think that could be the difference for us come Election Day on whether or not we win a lot of these close races or not," he continued. "And I think that we're gonna outperform the polls for sure come Election Day."

The Republicans are on defense, as they hold the current Senate majority, and are hoping to keep it. We're seeing plenty of campaign shenanigans as well, including right here in Alaska's Senate race, where Democrat Mary Peltola is facing off against what appear to be hot and cold running Dan Sullivans, under our ridiculous ranked-choice voting system.

It's good to be optimistic. But Republicans had better be prepared to fight bitterly for every vote, right up until the end, if they want to win this thing.

Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must maintain control of both chambers of Congress.

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