We've been reporting how the polls have been starting to amass for former President Donald Trump, even in the national vote. We've had multiple polls now that have put Trump up two or three points in the national vote — HarrisX/Forbes, the Wall Street Journal, Rasmussen, and even CNBC.
That had us at a 0.2 lead for Vice President Kamala Harris in the Real Clear Politics average, with her barely hanging on and only because of ridiculous polls like Morning Consult. I said one more poll could probably flip it.
New WSJ Poll Is a Devastating Back-Breaker for Kamala Harris
Well, now we're at a tie with the new NYT/Siena poll that puts the national vote at a tie in the head-to-head at 48 percent, and Trump up by one in the full field, 47 to 46 percent.
🇺🇲 FINAL NATIONAL POLL: NYT/Siena
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 25, 2024
2-WAY
🟥 Trump: 48%
🟦 Harris: 48%
Last poll (9/26-10/6) - 🔵 Harris+3
——
FULL FIELD
🟥 Trump: 47%
🟦 Harris: 46%
🟩 Stein: 2%
🟪 Other: 2%
Last poll - 🔵 Harris +3
——
Crosstabs (2-way)
• Did not vote in 2020: Trump 47-43%
• Biden 2020… pic.twitter.com/jUMbkGM08Z
That puts the Real Clear Politics average at a tie at 48.5
— Nickarama (@nickaramaOG) October 25, 2024
You could hardly ask for better momentum in the right direction at this point. Bad cross tab? That has her up with independents. Good cross tab? Trump is up 49-46 with "who would do a better job of handling the issue you think is most important?" He's also got stunning Hispanic numbers there at 42 percent for him, and he captures the "other" category. He's also up by three with non-2020 voters. Plus, any myth of any real "Republicans for Harris" thing is blown here in the cross tabs.
Now, again, if you accept the Electoral College bias argument that anything under +2 for Harris is advantage Trump, a tie would pretty much tell you what great shape he's in — that would be considered a walkaway.
— Nickarama (@nickaramaOG) October 25, 2024
But even without that bias being factored in, it's looking like he could win and win the popular vote, too. That's astonishing, given recent history, which tends to have Democrats up in the popular vote. But it's Kamala Harris, a historically bad candidate. And wouldn't that be a true kick in the head to the game-playing, democracy-attacking Democrats who replaced Biden?
If we look at the 2020 race at this time on the RCP, Joe Biden was +8 and he officially barely won. In 2016, Hillary Clinton was up 5.1 percent and she lost.
Here's what CNN's Harry Enten is now saying about the popular vote possibility — he could be the first Republican to win it in 20 years.
There's a real shot Trump may get his great white whale: winning the popular vote. Polls show the race nationally is basically even as Trump runs far ahead of where he polled in 2016 or 2020.
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) October 25, 2024
He'd be the 1st Republican to win the popular vote in 20 years & only 2nd in 36 years. pic.twitter.com/Pp4LJPwUZe
Now, as Enten notes, there is the theoretical possibility that she still has a chance to win by grabbing up the necessary swing states. But Trump is still leading in all the battleground states as well at 0.9 lead.
— Nickarama (@nickaramaOG) October 25, 2024
Right now, he appears to have all the momentum, and he's holding them. But they're still pretty tight, with six states under 2.0 and Georgia at 2.2.
If those leads hold, he's at 312, and he has a massive win.
So, we still need the pedal to the metal to ensure that he takes these swing states.
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