Talarico in Trouble? Some Ill Winds Are Blowing in His Direction

According to certain media reports, Texas Democrat candidate for U.S. Senate James Talarico appears to be widening his lead over his Republican opponent, TX Attorney General Ken Paxton. However, there is more evidence that these reports are smoke and mirrors being used to obscure some bigger problems in Team Talarico-land.

Last week, Talarico did several interviews with right-leaning outlets, where he attempted to walk back all his previous radical statements about transgender kids, open borders, and God being nonbinary. This week he is pretending to be a man of the people, connecting with real Texans via Zoom calls and town halls, and pretending to court the Black vote. 

There is even a Recon/MMR Texas poll being shopped around that confirms that purported leapfrog ahead by Talarico. 

New Siena College/ReconMR TEXAS poll is absolutely brutal for Republicans—could be a generational wipeout if it comes to pass:

SEN
Talarico 49
Paxton 43

GOV
Hinojosa (D) 49
Abbott (R) 45

Generic ballot
R47
D46

614 LV, live caller/text-to-web, MoE 4.3%https://t.co/1wUH3VvUVl pic.twitter.com/1GYd0pS7N9

— Jacob Rubashkin (@JacobRubashkin) September 17, 2026

Before anyone gets their panties in a bunch, the internals of this poll are a bit suspect. The sampling was taken from roughly 600 likely voters, where a little over 350 were actually reached. According to the Texas Secretary of State's records, the Lone Star State has 17,746,985 registered voters. So, crowing that someone has the edge in a statewide race where the sampling is minuscule is gaslighting at its finest.

And Talarico is the chief gaslighter in this scenario. On Monday, Team Talarico proudly dropped this ad claiming billionaires were spending millions to attack him, while furthering the falsehood that Talarico does not take any corporate PAC money or dark money.

WATCH:

.@JamesTalarico drops new ad:

“Billionaires are spending millions attacking me. Here's why.

I don't take corporate PAC money. I'm running to ban dark money so billionaires can't buy our elections. Ban members of Congress from trading stocks and enriching themselves. Ban… pic.twitter.com/EQZqPZqZAU

— Team Talarico (@TeamTalaricoHQ) September 14, 2026

.@JamesTalarico drops new ad:

“Billionaires are spending millions attacking me. Here's why.

I don't take corporate PAC money. I'm running to ban dark money so billionaires can't buy our elections. Ban members of Congress from trading stocks and enriching themselves. Ban gerrymandering in every state. And establish term limits so we can show career politicians the door.

I’m James Talarico and I approve this message — because if the billionaires are coming after us, we must be doing something right.”

But as my RedState colleague Nick Arama reported, this is a bald-faced lie. On September 10, Talarico spent an evening in Hollywood, campaigning with GA Sen. Jon Ossoff. The entrance price to the swanky event ranged from $1,000 to $27,000. Average Joes and Janes couldn't foot that price tag. Who could? Those billionaires he claims are attacking him.

Arama further documents the donations to Talarico-focused PACs, confirmed by FEC records, from LinkedIn and Netflix billionaire Reid Hoffman, and Austin billionaires and philanthropists Simone and Tench Coxe.

But there's a part of that ad that becomes even more jarring after the drop by our sister site Townhall, which was covered by my RedState colleague Ward Clark. The video exposes that Sky McAdams, organizer at Texas Majority PAC (pro-Talarico, of course), employed a "Paid Relational Program" to encourage voters to vote for Talarico.

Video obtained by Townhall catches Sky McAdams, organizing manager for Texas Majority PAC, on undercover video explaining the scheme to elect Talarico in November. 

"You can't pay someone to vote for someone" 

"If I was a Republican, I would be pissed." 

In the video, McAdams says it’s called a “paid relational program,” which is operated by Relentless that uses software called Rally. 

In a campaign finance report filed in July, Texas Majority PAC said it paid Relentless $500,000 for a “relational organizing program,” or about 20 percent of all its expenditures up to that point. At $25 per vote, that could be good for 20,000 ballots.

It is shady, but nothing novel. Sen. Jon Ossoff, with whom Talarico has cozied up, used this same method, and the same company, Relentless, to win his election back in 2021.

And an important test case for deploying the strategy at scale came out of the Georgia Senate runoffs in 2021 when now-Sen. Jon Ossoff’s (D-Ga.) campaign, flush with nearly unlimited cash but only two months to spend it, used a paid and volunteer relational program to get people talking to acquaintances instead of strangers about the election.

In particular, the Ossoff team hired 2,800 Georgians, specifically targeting those with little or no voting history themselves to do this outreach to their own networks. The campaign was making a bet that many of the friends and family of their highly political volunteers were already engaged in the runoff election, but that this group could expand the electorate with relational outreach into their networks — which were likely to include more irregular voters or non-voters like them. The campaign folded this data into their vast field program, tracking conversations and whether those contacted had voted. They could even notify organizers, based on their own network, which voters were tagged as “only reachable by you.”

A post-election analysis found their efforts boosted turnout by an estimated 3.8 percent among the 160,000 voters targeted through their relational program. Ossoff and now-Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) won by 1.2 points and 2.1 points respectively, flipping the state and the Senate to Democrats.

Curious and questionable, but is it election interference? Our RedState friend Shipwreckedcrew had this insightful take:

The intent to violate the statute is there. THis is no different than the use of straw donors in making contributions.

I think this guy and his group have a bigger problem than he imagines. Creating "evading" of federal law is just another word for "conspiracy."

This might… https://t.co/YDApahhVN4

— Shipwreckedcrew (@shipwreckedcrew) September 16, 2026

The intent to violate the statute is there.  THis is no different than the use of straw donors in making contributions.

I think this guy and his group have a bigger problem than he imagines.    Creating "evading" of federal law is just another word for "conspiracy."

This might get interesting.

As an AG and his opponent, Ken Paxton is also taking a particular interest. Since the Republican Midterm Convention, Paxton has upped his offense game in this race, so expect to see more exposure of the Democrat Party's efforts to circumvent federal election law. What other Senate and Congressional races are employing this strategy? 

Absolutely outrageous!

James Talarico's team just admitted they are trying to bribe people for votes.

Texans aren't for sale, no matter how much James Talarico thinks they are. https://t.co/WI8t8jG35o

— Attorney General Ken Paxton (@KenPaxtonTX) September 16, 2026

Between the ad and the Sky McAdams/Texas Majority PAC video oppo drop, Talarico's Pandora's Box has been unleashed. It's no wonder he's trying to moderate and pretend he's every man. It's an inelegant attempt to paper over the ill wind blowing in his direction. It's a long way to Texas early voting on October 19, so expect more to come out of the woodwork on this.

Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must maintain control of both chambers of Congress.

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