Have you ever observed, really observed, an actual sunrise in the mountains or countryside where your view of the horizon is unobstructed by the man-made clutter of city skylines?
For a short while, then during those promissory moments hinting at the oncoming dawn, there’s a slight light hanging in the air. You start to see some things emerging from the misty darkness. You know something’s coming. It’s not quite there yet, though, so the anticipation mounts.
That’s where we are right now in the 2028 presidential race. We know it’s coming. We can see some of it emerging in the early light. The anticipation is building.
That usually happens at the midpoint of a retiring president’s term. People start thinking about what might be coming just over the horizon.
But this time it's starting sooner; Democrats want rid of the mystical Trump curse ASAP, and Republicans want a strong successor to protect and continue his reforms.
At this moment, the Democrat Party’s outlook seems hopeless, absolutely hopeless. The memory of its stupidity for picking that old oaf Joe Biden as its 2020 candidate remains strong.
And the stench of his senile years in the White House, the myriad corruptions of his family syndicate, and the supportive lies of party leaders and his ambitious spouse in their ill-fated attempt to foist a second term on the nation whose laws he swore to uphold.
And then to sub in the woman he'd picked as his vice president for reasons having nothing to do with political potential or intelligence.
The early signs of trouble were there for anyone not blinded by hope and hype.
In the opening Iowa caucuses that year, Pete Buttigieg, a former small-city mayor, beat everyone. Joe Biden, the former two-term vice president, finished way back in fourth place behind an even older senator and a flinty, female Massachusetts senator.
In the ensuing New Hampshire primary, Joe Biden did even worse. He finished in fifth place behind that old-timer Bernie Sanders, that ex-mayor, Minnesota’s Sen. Amy Klobuchar, and Elizabeth Warren, the faux Native American.
In the end, despite some puzzling mental outbursts, Biden was their pick. He felt familiar after eight years as Barack Obama’s stumbling sidekick to make Obama look smarter.
Biden appeared safe enough in their frightened minds, especially given the specter of four more years of their former donor, Donald Trump.
But this time, who do the leaderless Democrats put up? That big-government party does love senators: Obama, Biden, Harris, Kerry, Edwards, Gore, Lieberman, Mondale. And going way back, there’s Humphrey, Johnson, and Kennedy.
Two governors are angling to volunteer now, Illinois’ JB Pritzker and California’s Gavin Newsom. But the records in their states are sadly soiled.
Pennsylvania’s Gov. Josh Shapiro might be available. He’s fresh, Eastern, urban. But he supports Israel and has gone after the far-left socialists who are moving to take over the party of Andrew Jackson.
Kamala Harris is hinting about trying again. I’ve written that’s just to keep her interim speaking fees inflated.
I can’t believe Democrats would repeat with Harris, Nancy Pelosi’s 2024 sacrificial nominee. But then I would never have predicted that Maine voters would select as their candidate for the United States Senate the Nazi tattoo guy, a serial sexter of women not his wife, and a man with no substantive work record.
Conservatives, however, should keep their wary eye on the wiliest potential Democrat opponent, who is already positioning himself in the media. He’s Rahm Emanuel. I wrote here about some personal experience with him.
He’s all over podcasts, op-eds, radio, and TV already and not robotically attacking Trump, who will be gone in two years anyway. Emanuel is saying silly things like Democrats need to get back to their roots, take care of Americans and America, get boys out of girls’ locker rooms, and focus on education, where U.S. students have fallen dangerously behind other countries.
Emanuel has quietly constructed a superior resume for higher office: finance chair and top advisor for Bill Clinton, the last centrist Democrat president; three terms in the House; Obama’s White House chief of staff; two terms as mayor of Chicago, the nation’s third largest city; ambassador to Japan.
Also, the 66-year-old Emanuel has an uncanny ear for voters’ mood. He was the chief architect and candidate-selector of Democrats’ explosive 2006 House takeover, ousting 22 GOP incumbents to make Pelosi the first female Speaker.
Critics will reflexively say Emanuel’s too centrist for today’s Democrat Party.
What that overlooks is a crucial historical election pattern: After any president’s second term, U.S. voters tend to go for something different for the Oval Office. See Trump after Obama. Obama after George W. Bush.
This would seem to threaten JD Vance’s assumed attempt to succeed Trump.
Sitting vice presidents have had trouble succeeding their boss in modern times: See Richard Nixon in 1960. Al Gore in 2000. I would argue that George H.W. Bush was more of a third Reagan term. Biden wasn’t sitting VP when he ran in 2000, nor was Walter Mondale, Jimmy Carter’s VP, when Reagan crushed him in 1984, 49 states to one.
Vance is finance chair of the Republican National Committee, which gives him almost daily contact with the GOP’s top donors.
Vance, an evangelical who became Catholic, turns 42 next week. He’s hampered from creating his own distinct political personality by being Trump’s loyal No. 2 and accepting his assignments, like the failed peace/ceasefire talks with Iran in Pakistan.
Vance’s people have successfully leaked how he privately opposed the Iran war. But much public distancing from strict allegiance to the administration’s agenda risks the wrath of the Big Guy.
Trump has given Marco Rubio numerous high-profile jobs and assignments, including Secretary of State and National Security Adviser, each of which the former senator has handled adeptly.
The 55-year-old fellow Floridian, a Catholic and son of Cuban immigrants, is probably the most eloquent – and sometimes pointed – explainer and defender of the president’s policies. Often, he’ll slide into fluent Spanish, as you can see here at the 1:17 mark with Trump's nodding approval.
Rubio routinely drops brief unscripted remarks like this on his hope for America on its 250th anniversary.
Now, here’s a video of Rubio doing a White House media briefing. Note how open he is, handling every unexpected question with aplomb, even smiles. No defensiveness to hostile media, addressing the immediate question then taking the opportunity to explain the president’s broader policy with details and history.
Here’s a video of Vance’s 2025 address to the Munich Security Conference.
Now let’s compare their different styles. Here’s Rubio’s speech to the same international gathering one year later. Which seems more presidential?
Wisely from Day One, Rubio has denied any interest in running for the presidency if Vance decides to. As the midterms come and go, that claimed position will come under more intense questioning.
Both men have avid fans on social media, earnestly advocating for one or the other. Vance’s are much more aggressive or defensive over perceived criticism of him. Be careful, not all these fans are American; they have their own agendas.
Neither Rubio nor Vance, however, can display the slightest impatience or eagerness to get through these next 830 days to the 2028 election.
Polls show a large surge in Rubio’s popularity and the idea of a 2028 GOP ticket with both men. That attracts curiosity clicks for media in slow summer news times. But I wouldn’t place much weight on polls this far out.
Unpredictable events in the meantime could play a major role. If Vance were suddenly to become president in some national crisis, he’d become an incumbent president seeking election presumably at a time of emotional national unity a la George W. Bush after 9/11.
That position worked well politically for Lyndon Johnson in 1964 after the Kennedy assassination, but not for Gerald Ford 12 years later after the Nixon resignation.
In the end, though, the most important factor will be Trump’s endorsement. He’s praised both men and said they are the top contenders. It’s good executive management to keep them both competing by advancing his agenda and assignments.
Trump could leave the GOP’s 2028 nominee up to primary and convention voters.
He could.
Do you think he’d do that? I don’t either.
He’d like part of the Donald Trump legacy to be handpicking his successor and the next president. Nothing wrong with that, though some might be more subtle.
That selection seems likely to come after another sunrise late next year or perhaps early 2028. A lot of bright, promising sunrises to experience until then. And, of course, the mounting daily anticipation for each.
