Don’t Forget About the Other Democrat Dirty Trick – the Indy Imitation Game

With everyone’s attention firmly fixed on the Alaska Senate race, where the premier Democrat Dirty Trick is being exposed in an October Surprise, it’s important to remember that the Alaska Dirty Trick is not the only Dirty Trick up the Democrats’ sleeve.

We also have The Indy Imitation Game, in four – and they tried for more – Republican states where the Democrats are running Fake “Independent” candidates for U.S. Senate. These states are so heavily Republican that the Democrats decided that the only way they could win was to run candidates who disguised their party background as an “Independent” to fool enough Republican voters to back them.

The normal introduction: in the upper chamber, the Republicans have a 53-47-seat majority, with 35 seats up. The Democrats need a net pickup of four seats to win control. But only two Republican seats are in competitive states. The other 20 GOP seats are in states Donald Trump won by double digits. All of the states where the Fake Independents are running are such states. Picking up a double-digit seat for the opposite party rarely happens. 

RealClearPolitics’s congressional generic vote shows the Democrats have an 8.4-point margin. This public polling is in "blue wave" territory. Of course, all this public polling has a bias towards the Democrats, thanks largely to the likely over-sampling of leftist voters and the under-sampling of right-wing voters. And that is not even considering the fake polls that have been revealed, most of which are on the left.

Here are the Fake Independent Senate contests:

Idaho: Jim Risch / 62.6 percent Risch / Solid Republican 

Three-term Republican Sen. Jim Risch is being challenged by independent Theodore "Todd" Achilles. Achilles is a former Democrat state representative who switched to run for Senate. The Democrats pressured their official candidate to step down. Since RCP does not have a polling average on this race, I am relying on the Poll Max average, which gives Risch an average lead of 46.2 percent to 32.9 percent. The Achilles campaign has spent more than $1.7 million, dwarfed by Risch’s campaign, which has spent over $4.7 million. In a state that is normally heavily Republican, and a GOP spending edge, with no buzz among the national parties of an upset, Risch is likely to win easily. 

Montana: Steve Daines (retiring) / Solid Republican

Republican Sen. Steve Daines initiated his own trick to retire on the last day of filing and make his favored candidate Kurt Alme, the U.S. Attorney, the GOP nominee. Alme is being challenged by independent Seth Bodnar, a former Green Beret and President of the University of Montana, who has the backing of the last two Democrat senators, Jon Tester and Max Baucus. The Democrat is Alani Bankhead, who is a far-left “progressive.” The left pushed mightily to get Bankhead to step down, but she refused. The Poll Max average has Alme leading with 40.9 percent of the vote to 28.4 percent for Bodnar, with Bankhead trailing. This is after Bodnar outspent Alme. In a state that is normally heavily Republican, and where the early vote seems to be positive for the GOP, and with a divided opposition, Alme seems to have it in the bag.

Nebraska: Pete Ricketts / 62.6 percent Ricketts / Lean Republican

Independent Dan Osborn is running again for Senate, this time challenging incumbent Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts. Ricketts previously served as a popular governor, was appointed to the Senate, and then won a special election. Osborn previously challenged the other senator, Deb Fischer, in 2024, and he overperformed the normal Democrat showing. In 2026, the Democrat nominee in Nebraska obeyed the dictates of her party and stepped down after being selected. Osborn is backed by the same “really ideological” crazed socialist “vetters” of Graham Platner, and there is a whole section at RedState exposing his background as a real leftist Democrat. Osborn spent roughly $9 million, while Ricketts spent $13 million. Outside spending shows Osborn had about $24 million spent against him and $10 million in support, while Ricketts had $18 million spent against him and $1 million for him. The RCP average shows Ricketts up 46.5 percent to 45 percent to Osborn. Osborn and his allies have spent heavily, and the early vote is less positive for the GOP. However, Nebraska is still a heavily Republican state overall, and Osborn has likely been exposed as a Democrat plant. I expect Sen. Ricketts to win narrowly. 

South Dakota: Mike Rounds / 65.74 percent Rounds / Likely Republican

Sen. Mike Rounds is being challenged by independent Brian Bengs. Rounds previously served as a popular governor. Bengs is an enlisted U.S. Navy veteran and retired U.S. Air Force officer who previously taught law and policy topics at the U.S. Air Force Academy. Bengs was also the 2022 Democrat candidate for the Senate. The Democrats pressured their official candidate to step down. The Poll Max average has Rounds at 48.2 percent to 43.4 percent for Bengs, although it does not include two independent pollsters that both have Rounds at 50 percent or above. Both candidates have spent a combined $6.1 million, with additional spending over $3 million, pushing the total cost of the race near $10 million and counting, with about 60 percent of the spending supporting Sen. Rounds. In a state that is normally heavily Republican, and where the early vote seems to be positive for the GOP, and with Rounds leading the polling, Rounds is likely to win.

Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must maintain control of both chambers of Congress.

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