New gun sales through a licensed dealer are, as they have been for some time, subject to the buyer undergoing a National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) background check. The number of these checks done each month and year are a matter of public record, and can serve as an estimate of new gun sales for a given month.
With that being the case, it's interesting to note that new gun sales seemed to have spiked in October 2026 — in the weeks leading up to the 2026 midterm election. Did gun owners see this coming? Because, it stands to reason we're going to see a host of new proposed gun control measures, at the federal level and in several states.
Anti-gun Democrats swept the midterms last night, not just at the national level, taking control of both the House and Senate, but also in a number of key states. Kansas elected its first Democrat Senator in almost a century and it was a blue bloodbath here in Texas.
The polls and the prediction markets in advance of the midterms were, for once, right. Beyond that, for those paying attention, the atmosphere during the run-up to Tuesday’s elections felt…ominous. Maybe that’s the reason that gun sales in October spiked the way they did.
According the the NSSF’s monthly report, October’s adjusted NICS checks jumped almost eight percent.
There may be a less prognostication-dependent explanation for that, namely, the partial deregulation of suppressors and short-barreled rifles, or SBRs. That would be enough to cause a surge in buying, and note that suppressors, under the new system, are subject to the NICS background check requirements, just like guns.
Politics and a perceived increased threat of more gun control has always been a motivating factor as elections approach. As the NSSF’s Mark Oliva put it before yesterday’s results were known . . .
It is evident that gun owners are already voting with their wallets when it comes to their Second Amendment rights, even as Americans are heading to their polling places to vote in federal and state elections.
Some of the spike could also be a result of the new landscape for NFA-covered items like suppressors and SBRs. There’s been a surge in sales of those thanks to the ability to now skip the NFA Form 4 process and buy those items now just like any other firearm…with just a 4473 and a background check.
It's belaboring the obvious to say that we will soon see a Congress seated that is very unfriendly to the Second Amendment, although their ability to affect things for the next two years, at least, will be hampered by President Trump and his veto pen. At the state level, though? That may be a different story.
Historically, the busiest month for NICS checks has been December, in part probably due to Christmas gift purchases, in part likely due to ongoing hunting seasons. But we have seen three similar October spikes in recent years: Right before the 2020 presidential election, in 2021, nine months after Joe Biden took office, and another before the 2022 midterm elections. While gun owners can't predict the future 100 percent of the time (at least, I can't) they do tend to get a little hinky around election time, especially if there is reason to expect even a blue trickle. And, given that this time, there was a blue wave, it would seem that this buying trend was justified.
Second Amendment advocates are going to have at least a couple of very interesting years ahead, and I mean "interesting" in the "ancient Chinese curse" sense.
Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must maintain control of both chambers of Congress.
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