Is the Big Blue Wave Inevitable? This Poll Says Hold Your Horses

October has arrived, and that means the midterm election news cycle is going into high gear as voters prepare to decide which direction to go: do they want to go back to the past malaise and decline offered by the Democrats and their socialist friends, or do we want to keep pushing forward into the future and ensure the continuation of President Donald Trump’s rejuvenation of America?

The media has been busy assuring us that a big blue wave is all but inevitable, and in truth, history has not been kind to the party in power in the midterms. So is it a slam dunk? Not according to this new Harvard/Harris poll, which shows that voters are in an almost dead-even split in their support for Republicans and Democrats (although the Dems have a slight edge in “likely voters”):

Harvard/Harris poll | 9/26-9/28

Generic congressional ballot 2026

Likely voters
🟦Democratic 51% (+2)
🟥Republican 49% (-2)
——
Registered voters
🟦 Democratic 50% (-1)
🟥 Republican 50% (+1)

(Change from late August) pic.twitter.com/5yHNJZrvgO

— Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 (@PollTracker2024) September 29, 2026

There are still plenty of undecideds out there too, further complicating any prognostication efforts:

Fifty percent of voters say their minds are already made up about who to vote for and two thirds say they expect to vote a straight-party ticket. Fifty-nine percent of those supporting Democrats say they have definitely made up their minds, and 58 percent of Republicans say the same. Just 33 percent of independent-leaning voters say their minds are made up, with 26 percent saying they are leaning in one direction and 24 percent said they have not decided.

Not surprisingly, the economy and affordability are at the top of voters’ concerns. Crime and foreign policy are also high on the list, however, which could be helpful to the GOP since the Democrats don’t seem to really give a hoot about crime or illegal immigration:

Forty-five percent say inflation/affordability is most important to them personally, followed by “restoring basic American values of merit and competence” and crime.

When broadened out to issues facing the country, economic concerns also reign, followed by health care and immigration.

President Trump and Republicans did narrowly score higher on who voters trust more to handle the economy. Fifty-one percent of voters said they trusted the president more including 15 percent of Democrats. Independent voters said they preferred Democrats by a 54-46 percent margin.

As RedState’s Nick Arama reported earlier Thursday, polling is notoriously imperfect and has a long history of underestimating Republican support:

I've been feeling over the past month that we may have been in what I would call the "Seltzer Zone," i.e., watching polls that may be way off.

Now, CNN senior data analyst Harry Enten is echoing a similar thought, at least when it comes to some critical Senate races in Iowa, Ohio, and Michigan.

As he explained, in all three states, the Republicans did better by 5+ points in 2024 than the polls had them at this point.

Dems have had a lot of very good polls from Iowa, Mich & Ohio.

But are polls underestimating the GOP again? In all 3 states, GOP did better by 5+ pt in 2024 than polls had at this point.

Same thing in Trump's 1st midterm.

Same happens in 2026? GOP probably holds the Senate. pic.twitter.com/NZYxhGyRgd

— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) September 30, 2026

The latest Harvard/Harris numbers guarantee exactly nothing, and there are plenty of other polls out there showing a more negative view of Republicans’ chances in November.

That being said, they do show that the media’s all-but-certain monster blue tsunami is not, in fact, inevitable. The key: voter turnout. Will conservatives come out in droves and keep working to make America great again? Or will they sit on their couches and grumble at the TV? If they do the latter, we’re looking forward to at least two years of investigations, impeachment hearings, filibustering, and obstruction.

It's just a little over a month before we get the answers (except in California, where we might not know till Christmas). 

It’s go time.

Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must maintain control of both chambers of Congress.

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