As I'm fond of pointing out, we solve today's problems with tomorrow's technology. But sometimes a look backwards can be instructive, perhaps at a system that, when proposed, wasn't quite ready for prime time, because the technology just wasn't up to what was proposed.
The Cold War was a time when all sorts of alternative weapons ideas were being kicked around. Missile defense was a matter of great concern for both the United States and the Soviet Union, who were the primary antagonists. Proposals ranged from lasers to rail guns to orbital platforms like the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI), somewhat facetiously labeled the Star Wars project. Like every war, the Cold War turbo-charged weapons development, even if some of those weapons were never used in anger.
Within the SDI umbrella was a proposed system called Brilliant Pebbles. This was something different; an orbital defense system designed to take down multiple targets.
O Group, which was led by Lowell Wood and included many extremely talented young scientists, originated the Brilliant Pebbles concept, and the Strategic Defense Initiative Organization (SDIO) began funding Livermore for Brilliant Pebbles R&D in 1987. Brilliant Pebbles were to be small, lightweight spacecraft that could stop advanced ballistic missiles and their components in boost phase by colliding with them at high speeds. On command, a global constellation of these nonnuclear spacecraft could detect and destroy missiles without any external help. Because of the system’s attractive low-cost and survivability attributes, Brilliant Pebbles became a baseline system in SDIO’s Strategic Defense System Phase I Architecture in 1990. With the winding down of the Cold War, this architecture was scaled-back to become Global Protection Against Limited Strikes (GPALS) and still included Brilliant Pebbles.
In 1994, plans were further scaled back to theater missile defense only and work on Brilliant Pebbles was discontinued. However, before program cancellation, SDIO carried out the Clementine Deep Space Experiment, spectacularly demonstrating Brilliant Pebbles technologies.
The system would have required 7,000 devices in low-Earth orbit, so that at any given time, there were at least 700 devices in space over the Soviet Union, so they could intercept and neutralize (we hoped) any missiles launched from Soviet territory. That was a prohibitive number of devices at that time, and after much discussion and a few tests, the Brilliant Pebbles scheme was scrapped.
Even in 1987, this wasn't a new idea. The Brilliant Pebbles concept had come from an older program called Smart Rocks. Smart Rocks proposed a very similar system, orbital devices that had their own onboard guidance and propulsion systems, intended to make skin-to-skin kills of Soviet (or anyone else's, for that matter) missiles in flight. The Smart Rocks projectiles were expected to weigh about 15 pounds, and the same numbers would have necessarily applied; about 7,000 devices in low-Earth orbit.
That's a lot of devices in 1987. Today, though? 7,000 Brilliant Pebbles launched into low-Earth orbit would be a light lunch for Elon Musk's SpaceX.
Things have come a long way, even since 1994, when Brilliant Pebbles was dropped. Now it's all about missiles and drone swarms.
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So, what might a similar system look like now?
First of all, let's stick with the name Brilliant Pebbles. It has a great ring to it. But picture a sort of micro-drone swarm, wherein not hundreds but thousands of softball- to tennis ball-sized devices can be launched, not necessarily from orbit, but perhaps from a defending aircraft, a ship, or even a ground launcher. They wouldn't necessarily have to pack a warhead. Most drones in use now aren't terribly robust, and a skin-to-skin impact by a fast-moving device should disable them.
The idea is to counter a drone swarm with an even larger, faster drone swarm, perhaps propelled not by propellers but by rocket motors. The propulsion would, in fact, seem to be the difficult nut to crack to make these things practical when launched by any of the means described here. The original Brilliant Pebbles had the advantage of being launched down the Earth's gravity well, which would have given them a big speed boost. The new Brilliant Pebbles would have had to defy, not take advantage of, gravity.
The technology, even today, may not be quite there yet. But in 20 years? Of course, there's a cautionary note in order as well: A new weapons system along these lines would be countered, sooner or later, by another new weapons system, which would again be countered, and so on.
That's why they call them "arms races." The thing here is that if you aren't on the crest of the wave, you're underwater.
Drones, and how to counter them, are the big tactical problem that every nation's militaries are facing right now. Ukraine in particular has gotten very good at using drones and in defending against them. Their record isn't 100 percent, but they are learning, and the world is watching, and figuring ways to stay on the crest of that wave.
