The Caspian Sea occupies an interesting place in the geography of the Middle East and Eastern Europe. Specifically, it provides a sea route between Russia and Iran, and remember, Iran has been providing drones and technical support to Russia, aid that Russia is using in the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian War.
Now, Ukraine's president Volodymyr Zelensky is confirming an attack by Ukrainian forces on a Russian warship in the Caspian - and on an Iranian commercial ship.
Iran summoned a Ukrainian diplomat in Tehran on Sunday to protest an attack on an Iranian commercial vessel in the Caspian Sea, as the war in the Middle East threatened to overlap with the Ukraine conflict.
Iran said the attack left one sailor dead and injured several others. The country’s foreign ministry complained to Ukraine’s chargé d’affaires in Tehran early on Sunday and “conveyed Iran’s strong protest over the ‘hostile and criminal act.’” Iran’s Islamic Republic News Agency reported.
In a post on X highlighting Ukraine’s attacks on distant Russian targets, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Saturday that his country’s forces “also achieved very strong results with long‑range strikes in the Caspian Sea – including vessels used in military cargo shipments involving Iran, as well as a warship.”
It's not known if that Iranian ship was carrying drones or any other military tech to Russia or vice versa, although President Zelensky certainly implies that it was doing just that.
Russia has long used Iranian-designed Shahed drones in its war on Ukraine, a weapon that analysts sometimes refer to as “the poor man’s cruise missile.”
But the latest attacks by Ukraine, combined with Saudi military strikes on Iran-backed Houthi targets in Yemen following the rebel group’s attacks on Red Sea shipping in recent days, represent a widening of the Middle East conflict.
Air defenses in Saudi Arabia reportedly intercepted two ballistic missiles from Yemen on Saturday.
There are a couple of interesting possibilities here.
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First: Iran has backed Russia with drones and other technology in the Russo-Ukrainian War. Could the mullahs now be calling in Moscow's marker? They have been taking a serious pounding and have expended a lot of munitions, including drones and missiles. But does Russia have anything to send them?
Second: This could represent a sudden and serious escalation of this into a regional conflict, with Iran and Russia facing off against Ukraine, the United States, and possibly Israel. The question then becomes: Will this spill over into NATO? We have already seen a Russian drone straying (?) into Romania, a NATO nation, where it was shot down with no harm done.
The Trump administration has, for the time being, suspended the nighttime attacks that were methodically wrecking Iran, to give diplomacy yet another chance, even though it's not at all clear who is actually in charge in Iran. Pakistan is, again, said to be trying to moderate some kind of an agreement. But now, there's this: Ukraine shooting at an Iranian ship, and the Iranians snapping at Ukraine about it. Things are getting more complicated, and it's anyone's guess what might happen next.
As of this writing, oil prices remain in the $90 range, nearing $100, both for USOIL and UK (Brent) crude. That's an indicator to watch.
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