GOP Takes Top Spots in Crowded California Governor Race Following Swalwell's Ignominious Exit

Former Representative Eric Swalwell (I still get a tingle up my leg every time I write or say that, especially the "former" part) is now officially just an ordinary citizen, having resigned in disgrace from Congress and abandoned his gubernatorial ambitions. While Democrats are hurling recriminations at each other over the whole thing, California's governor's race is heating up; Swalwell's departure from the race has left them dazed and confused.

The two leading Republicans in the race may be positioned to take advantage of that. A new Emerson College poll has some interesting results - but the California GOP shouldn't get too happy just yet. First, look at this graphic:

🚨New @CaliforniaICP/@EmersonPolling on the CA gov race post Swalwell exit and Trump endorsement:

🔴Steve Hilton 17%
🔴Chad Bianco 14%
🔵Tom Steyer 14%
🔵Xavier Becerra 10%
🔵Katie Porter 10%
🔵Matt Mahan 5%
🔵Antonio Villaraigosa 3%
🔵Betty Yee 1%
🔵Tony Thurmond 1%

Undecided… pic.twitter.com/gRH2xdm23J
— Nikki Laurenzo (@NikkiLaurenzo) April 16, 2026

That's got to have a few grins plastered on some Republican mugs around the once-Golden State, but we should point out that the two Republican candidates, Trump-endorsed Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco, together only grab 31 percent of the vote. Now, that might be enough if the Democrats retain their current disarray and their extensive roster of candidates. But we shouldn't depend on that; there are two reasons why.

First, Democrats may be nuts, but they aren't stupid. (Well, not all of them are.) One thing they are good at, probably because of their collectivist mindset, is sticking together. The primary is still over six weeks away; that's plenty of time for California Democrats to get their feces cohesive and coalesce around one or two candidates, which could be enough.

Second, remember, in 2024, Kamala Harris overwhelmingly won California's electoral votes, in an election cycle where the winds were at Republicans' backs, and she was running as a selected, not elected, candidate, the worst presidential candidate in American history, and she still took California by 58.5 to 38.3 points. Those great numbers in this Emerson poll may well be the GOP ceiling.

The actual poll is here. It shows the two GOP candidates polling pretty equally among Republicans:

“Hilton and Bianco continue to split the Republican vote, 48% supporting Hilton and 40% Bianco, while independents are more fragmented: 16% support Steyer, 15% Hilton, 14% Bianco, and 10% Porter.”

Here, also from the poll, is the list of things that Hilton and Bianco should hammer the Democrats on, every day; these are Republican strengths.

The economy is the top issue for California voters at 41%, followed by housing affordability at 20%, threats to democracy at 10%, crime at 6%, immigration at 6%, and healthcare at 6%.

These are the issues that may well be able to drag in enough of all those undecided voters to tip the balance.

Here's the fun part: In most elections, we would want our state organizations to gather behind one candidate, the best candidate, and unite. But this time, it may well be better to keep both in the race, and hope that Democrats stay as fractured as they are - which doesn't seem likely. But if these numbers are still in place when the primary comes off?

Swalwell Refuses to Go Quietly Into the Night As Lawyer Issues Statement Saying It's All a 'Hit Job'

California's 2026 primary election is on June 2nd. Could this primary result in the November gubernatorial election offering California voters the choice between a Republican and a... Republican? It may not be likely, but boy, talk about California Democrats being hoist by their own petard. One would be able to detect all the Republican schadenfreude from orbit.

Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must maintain control of both chambers of Congress.

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