If all this works out the way we hope and the rule in Iran of the Bronze-age barbarians who presently run that country ends, there will necessarily have to be some kind of interim government until a stable regime can be set up, preferably some kind of constitutional, parliamentary system.
One man has been talking about just that, and he's in an interesting position to serve as an interim leader: the exiled crown prince, son of the late Shah, Reza Pahlavi. On Saturday, as the regime's leadership was busy dodging American and Israeli missiles and bombs, Pahlavi spoke up, praising the efforts to free his people.
Reza Pahlavi, the exiled crown prince of Iran, described the joint U.S.-Israeli attack on the country as promised "aid" and an act of "humanitarian intervention" by President Donald Trump.
Following the reported strikes, Pahlavi urged Iranians to abandon the regime and called on security forces to defect.
"Moments of destiny lie ahead of us," Pahlavi wrote in a statement on social media. "Even with the arrival of this aid, the final victory will still be forged by our hands. It is we, the people of Iran, who will finish the job in this final battle. The time to return to the streets is near."
For Iran's security forces - and that's something of a misnomer, "regime thugs" seems more appropriate - defection may be the only way to ensure that they continue breathing. These kinds of regime collapses never seem to end without some nasty reprisals, and after 47 years of brutal theocratic rule, a lot of Iranians may not feel very forgiving. There's an old rule that applies: Be careful which butts you kick, because you may end up having to kiss them later.
Pahlavi declared that the Islamic Republic is collapsing.
He framed the reported strikes as assistance directed not at Iran itself, but at its ruling clerical establishment and urged the U.S. to "exercise the utmost caution" to preserve civilian lives.
"The aid that the President of the United States promised to the brave people of Iran has now arrived," Pahlavi wrote. "This is a humanitarian intervention; and its target is the Islamic Republic, its repressive apparatus, and its machinery of slaughter — not the country and great nation of Iran."
Pahlavi issued a blunt warning to Iran’s military, police and security services, urging them to break ranks with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
"Now that the Islamic Republic is collapsing, my message to the country's military, police, and security forces is clear: You have sworn an oath to protect Iran and the Iranian people — not the Islamic Republic and its leaders," he wrote.
Of course, it's not at all clear that the Islamic Republic is collapsing, although it's probably more likely now than it has been since 1979.
Read More: European Leaders Speak Out on Iran Strikes, but the Time for Talk Is Over
Iran Update: Ayatollah's Compound Demolished and Some Big Iranian Leaders Bite the Dust
If the mullahs are taken out by the suitable application of American and Israeli high explosives, or if they just bail and flee to Moscow, Pyongyang, Beijing or whoever else will have them, then there will be a transition. The only acceptable form of government after that is some kind of representative government, with clean, honest elections. But in the meantime, someone will have to serve as a figurehead, someone who the people of Iran can rally around while this process works through.
Reza Pahlavi may be the right guy for that job. Just so it's understood that there will be no return to any kind of monarchy.
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