New polling data out of Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media is chock full of bad news for Democrat Rep. Jasmine Crockett (TX-30), who's hoping to snag her party's nomination in the upcoming U.S. Senate primary in Texas. The polling released Thursday shows she is lagging well behind fellow Democrat James Talarico, a Texas state representative, by a whopping nine points; Talarico garnered 47 percent of likely voters, with Crockett grabbing 38 percent and 15 percent being undecided.
Talarico, who’s raised more than $13 million since launching in September, was boosted by Hispanic and white voters, winning just shy of 6 in 10 from each group, while 80 percent of Black Democratic primary voters sided with Crockett, according to the poll.
Men broke for Talarico by 22 points, while women were evenly split between the two Democrats, Emerson College Polling executive director Spencer Kimball noted.
NEW: TEXAS POLL
— Emerson College Polling (@EmersonPolling) January 15, 2026
Democratic Senate Primary
James Talarico 47%
Jasmine Crockett 38%
15% undecided
Republican Senate Primary
Ken Paxton 27%
John Cornyn 26%
Wesley Hunt 16%
29% undecided@PPowerRanker analysis: https://t.co/5bJUNDp6hA
Full results: https://t.co/wxpd9dIOdU pic.twitter.com/uTAqmRbZs3
As noted above, the polling numbers aren't the only bad news for Crockett – it turns out that her opponent Talarico is a fundraising machine, hauling in $7 million in the last quarter of 2025 for a total of $13 million raised since announcing his candidacy. Crockett's campaign, by contrast, has declined to release her 4th quarter numbers, telling one media outlet, "As our campaign completes the final tally for Quarter 4, one thing is clear — this is a campaign fueled and funded by so many of those exact people that are struggling. Our average donation is $20!"
READ MORE: The Democrats' Irrational Exuberance in the U.S. Senate
Texas Showdown: GOP's Wesley Hunt Now Dares Dem Crockett to Face-Off
Talarico became a progressive darling last year after he, along with his Democrat colleagues, fled the Texas state house to protest the Republicans' redistricting plan that could net the GOP five House seats in the midterms. Ironically, the reason Crockett jumped into the Senate primary in the first place is because she's about to be redistricted out of her House seat.
On the Republican side, the new poll shows Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton with a slight lead over incumbent John Cornyn; Paxton clocked 27 percent to Cornyn's 26 percent, with Rep. Wesley Hunt (TX-38) in third with 16 percent and a whopping 29 percent still undecided.
NEW: TEXAS POLL
— Emerson College Polling (@EmersonPolling) January 15, 2026
Democratic Senate Primary
James Talarico 47%
Jasmine Crockett 38%
15% undecided
Republican Senate Primary
Ken Paxton 27%
John Cornyn 26%
Wesley Hunt 16%
29% undecided@PPowerRanker analysis: https://t.co/5bJUNDp6hA
Full results: https://t.co/wxpd9dIOdU pic.twitter.com/uTAqmRbZs3
Things get interesting in various R-D head-to-head matchup scenarios for the general election. Cornyn looks strong when up against both Talarico and Crockett, as does Hunt. Paxton, however, merely ties with the Democrats.
TEXAS POLL
— Emerson College Polling (@EmersonPolling) January 15, 2026
Hypothetical US Senate Election Matchups
Cornyn (R) 47% / Talarico (D) 44%
Cornyn (R) 48% / Crockett (D) 43%
Paxton (R) 46% / Talarico (D) 46%
Paxton (R) 46% / Crockett (D) 46%
Hunt (R) 47% / Talarico (D) 44%
Hunt (R) 48% / Crockett (D) 43%…
These numbers seem to show that Jasmine Crockett is staring down the end of her political career – she's not out yet, but she's hanging on by her fingernails.
The Democrat and Republican primaries will take place on March 2, 2026.
Editor’s Note: The Democrat Party has never been less popular as voters reject its globalist agenda.
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