Well, the Democrats are getting plenty excited, again, about winning the U.S. Senate in 2026. So, once again, I feel the need to tamp down their delight.
I agree that Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and his lieutenants have done a good job of recruitment for this cycle. Former Democrat Congresswoman Mary Peltola of Alaska is just the latest example of them nabbing their best possible nominee. And the Senate numbers aren’t daunting; the Democrats just need a net four seats to win the chamber, and one party has netted that number or more in multiple election years.
But the Democrats' problem is – still is – that they don’t have enough plausible targets to win the chamber in 2026. Maine and North Carolina are both very winnable, but where do the Democrats go after? Every other state held by the GOP is solidly Republican. Not even a “blue wave” would guarantee Democrats control, and there is still not much evidence of such a wave.
And then they still must worry about some competitive Democrat held seats in Georgia, Michigan, and New Hampshire.
Finally, the GOP is raising vast amounts of money to defend its majority. The main Republican super PAC, the Senate Leadership Fund, in 2025 “shattered its off-year fundraising record, pulling in $180 million as Republicans gear up for the midterm elections.” This will give the GOP a leg up on the races.
ALSO SEE: Has the GOP Turned the Corner in the Battle for the House?
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Now, let’s turn to specific news from some of the races:
Alaska: Dan Sullivan / 54% R / Lean R
The Democrats persuaded Mary Peltola to challenge two-term Sen. Dan Sullivan, and are plenty excited about it. Peltola is a good candidate; the best the Democrats could get for this seat. But Sullivan is popular with both the GOP base and the overall electorate – unlike his Republican Senate colleague, Lisa Murkowski – and Alaska went for Donald Trump three straight times, with the Democratic presidential candidate at most earning 42.7% of the vote. Also, the Democrats have only won one race for the Senate since 1974, and that race was a result of the incumbent Republican being sabotaged by Democrat lawfare that (barely) cost him his seat. Peltola would have been much smarter to run for the open governorship in Alaska. And with Sen. Murkowski endorsing Sullivan, Peltola missed her best opportunity to pretend to be “bipartisan.” While Peltola’s announcement moves this race down to Lean Republican, she is still going to need a lot of help to win this seat.
Iowa: Joni Ernst (retiring) / Lean R
The Democrats have talked about making a play for this open seat, but there is little evidence of that so far. Three-term Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson has $4 million in the bank, and her four Democrat opponents are all unknown. And President Trump won Iowa three times by solid margins.
Maine: Susan Collins / 50.98% R / Tilt R
President Trump made news at RedState when he “cussed out” Sen. Collins over her vote against him. In Maine, a Democrat leaning state, this should be considered a political gift from the president, which Collins will almost certainly advertise to show her independence. The Democrats, meanwhile, have a tough primary between the establishment lefty Gov. Janet Mills and the Bernie Bro Commie/Nazi Graham Platner. Mills has a narrow 43% to 39% edge in the RCP average over Platner, but Platner has raised $4.7 million, and my guess is that his smash-mouth leftism will play much better than the elderly (self-term-limited) governor. Certainly, Sen. Collins is hoping that Platner makes it to the general election (although she can beat either).
Michigan: Gary Peters (retiring) / Lean D
The Democrats must be worried about this seat, since they have a tough three-way primary, while the GOP candidate is former Congressman and Senate nominee Mike Rogers, who is probably one of the strongest candidates the Republicans could nominate. But it could be even worse for the Democrats if the Bernie Bro Commie Radical Muslim (2) Abdul El-Sayed comes out on top. El-Sayed has become a one-issue candidate – he hates Israel – and his far-out economic positions, his radical ties, along with other unforced errors – identifying himself as an Egyptian citizen – make him a very risky choice for the Democrats. If he wins, polling shows that Rogers is likely to have a substantial edge over him.
North Carolina: Thom Tillis (retiring) / Tilt D
Democrat Former Gov. Roy Cooper raised $9.5 million to the $5.1 million raised by former RNC Chairman Michael Whatley. This is a better showing by Whatley than the prior period, where Cooper outraised Whatley more than two to one. However, there is no question that Whatley needs to boost his fundraising – he is down 46% to 41.3% in the RCP average – but if he manages that, the issues are there for him, considering his opponent promoted soft-on-crime policies that led to the shocking murder of Iryna Zarutska.
Ohio (special): Jon Husted / Appointed in 2025 / Lean R
The other Senate race where the Democrats got their preferred candidate is in Ohio, where former three-term Senator Sherrod Brown – whom my former boss used to call “Beetlejuice” because of his raspy voice – chose to run in the special election for Vice President Vance’s Senate seat. The appointed senator, Jon Husted, is an establishment conservative who has been elected multiple times to lower statewide offices. The RCP average has Husted up 48.5% to 47.5%. However, it is extremely rare for a former senator to win back a Senate seat, and President Trump carried Ohio three straight times by substantial margins, which is going to make it tough for Senator Beetlejuice to make a comeback.
Texas: John Cornyn / 53.51% R / Likely R
Sen. John Cornyn continues to impress with his colossal fundraising, having raised $7 million. It is rumored that he and his allies are going to spend $100 million total for his primary, against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt. Equally impressive is state Rep. James Talarico, the underdog on the Democrat side, who raised $6.8 million. The problem for Talarico, and the Democrats in general, is that the Democrat primary will be mostly made up of black, Hispanic, and white women voters, who should prefer Rep. Jasmine Crockett, a black woman, who is a far weaker candidate for the general election. Any GOP candidate could beat Crockett, even Paxton.
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