Here we are, coming up on Week 100. Sorry for the delay...again...in getting this update out.
There isn't a lot of new stuff to report, and I'm tired of reporting the same old stuff week after week. Congress is out of town, Brussels is somnolent, and Ukraine still has that unique blend of mud and snow that makes operations difficult.
Russia put on a second display of fireworks on January 2, executing the second-largest missile attack of the war using 95 missiles against the previous record of 122. Among the missiles used were North Korean versions of the Soviet SCUD ballistic missile. As I write this, Ukraine is carrying out missile attacks on a wide range of targets in Occupied Crimea and Russia. None of these attacks will move the needle much.
Here are some of my past updates. For all my Ukraine War coverage, click here.
Putin's War, Week 95. The Russian Air Force Takes a Beating as Disease Rips Through the Russian Army
Putin's War, Week 94. Putin Makes Shocker AnnouncementUSnd the War in Washington Goes Into High Gear
Putin's War, Week 93. General Winter Hits the Brakes, Offensive Postmortems and Funding Fights
Putin's War, Week 90. Grain Corridor Reopens and Russia Hints at Another Major Retreat
Putin's War, Week 88. TIME Magazine and the Offensive GEUs a Postmortem blindside Zelensky
Putin's War, Week 87. The Battlefield Shifts to Washington and Brussels
Putin's War, Week 86. The Very Resistible Force Meets the Immovable Object in Donbas
Politico-Strategic Level
Russia Launches Second Missile Blitz
Last week, Russia launched its largest missile attack of the war. Russia fired 122 missiles and 35 Shaned drones into Ukraine. On January 2 it followed up with a second wave of attacks launching 99 missiles and 35 Shahed drones. All the Shahed drones were shot down. This is not unusual, and they seem to be used to clutter radar screens and draw missile fire before the real attack arrives. On New Year's Eve, Ukraine shot down 87 of 90 Shahed.
πΊπ¦ On the night of 31.12.23/01.01.24 destroyed:
β PS01 (@PStyle0ne1) January 1, 2024
87 of 90 Shahed were shot down pic.twitter.com/KZ778MeMH6
Russian suicide drones striking apartments in Odesa tonight pic.twitter.com/pWWwLfiKNC
β VisegrΓ‘d 24 (@visegrad24) January 1, 2024
This is the box score. The four missiles missing from the tally were four Kh-31P antiradiation missiles targeting Ukrainian radar emitters. There is no report on those weapons. More about those twelve ballistic missiles later in the update.
Russia did a massive missile attack on Ukraine πΊπ¦ using 95 Cruise Missiles and Ballistic Missiles. Ukraine intercepted 72 of the 95 missiles
β Ukraine Battle Map (@ukraine_map) January 2, 2024
10/10 or (100%) of Kinzhal Missiles
59/70 or (84.3%) of X-101 Missiles
3/3 or (100%) of Kalibr Missiles
0/12 or (0%) of Ballistic Missiles pic.twitter.com/Lws5GCWcju
The missiles that made it through the defensive missile shield did a lot of damage to civilian targets.
41 apartment buildings or houses were damaged today in Kharkiv because of the russian missile attack
β Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) January 2, 2024
50 people were injured, and at least 1 person died. pic.twitter.com/uyzKEtZjlg
Another day brings another tragic update from Kharkiv Oblast where russian MLRS and 500-kg air bomb attacks claimed the life of a 66-year-old woman, leaving four others injured. pic.twitter.com/y8IiQipeLo
β Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) December 28, 2023
What is notable is that all ten of the "hypersonic" missiles fired at Ukraine were shot down. This demonstrates the increasing lethality of Patriot missiles when engaging early-generation hypersonic missiles.
One of the ten hypersonic Kinzhals shot down over Kyiv this morning. pic.twitter.com/uSIauDcAxt
β Christo Grozev (@christogrozev) January 2, 2024
In addition to this being an outstanding technical achievement, the data we are learning from these engagements will make Patriot more effective in the future.
Every Ukrainian downing of Russian hypersonic Kh-47M2 Kinzhal with the Patriot missiles will improve the Patriot missile intercept algorithm - and increase accuracy for all Patriot systems, a benefit for the US, the rest of NATO, and other Patriot AD users. The same goes for any⦠pic.twitter.com/u9Pni5Gt1J
β Jan Kallberg, Ph.D. (@Cyberdefensecom) January 3, 2024
READ MORE:
Putin's War, Week 96. Blowback From a Sunk Ship as Russia Launches Largest Missile Attack of the War
Putin's War, Week 64. Patriots Score Big and the Scene Is Set for Offensive Action
Ukraine Confirms a US-Supplied Patriot Air Defense System Shot Down a Russian Hypersonic Missile
Prisoner Exchanges Resume
Prisoner-of-war exchanges between Ukraine and Russia resumed on Wednesday, with 230 Ukrainian prisoners being swapped for 248 Russians. Many of the released Ukrainian prisoners were taken on Snake Island in the first few days of the war and at the siege of Mariupol (Mariupol Surrenders to the Russian Army After Epic 82-Day Siege). This is the largest exchange since the war started.
There had been 48 exchanges until the Russians stopped participating after the August 7, 2023 exchange. Compare the Ukrainian (upper) with the Russian (lower) events.
More than 200 Ukrainian soldiers and civilians were returned from Russian captivity in a new prisoner exchange. pic.twitter.com/NvyivqQpMk
β Clash Report (@clashreport) January 3, 2024
Russia and Ukraine conducted a major prisoner exchange.
β 301 Military (@301military) January 3, 2024
On January 3rd, 248 military personnel returned to Russia through negotiations facilitated by the United Arab Emirates.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed the exchange, stating that over 200 military⦠pic.twitter.com/ZvGcAGUyAv
IAEA Booted from Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Pant
The Russians have barred IAEA staff from critical areas of the ZNPP. No one is sure of the reason.
The head of the UN nuclear power watchdog said his inspectors had been denied access to parts of Ukraine's Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station and had yet to receive 2024 maintenance plans for the facility https://t.co/WQ7dLJ001t
β Reuters (@Reuters) January 4, 2024
Turkey Blocks Delivery of Minehunters to Ukraine
Turkey has blocked the delivery of two British minehunting ships to Ukraine.
Turkey Blocks UK Navy From Clearing Black Sea Mines
β Sal Mercogliano (WGOW Shipping) π’βπͺππ΄ββ οΈ (@mercoglianos) January 2, 2024
Meanwhile on the #BlackSea.https://t.co/SYvirYi31h
As John Konrad noted:
On Tuesday, Turkey made the controversial decision to block two British minehunter ships from entering the Black Sea, citing the Montreux Convention. This move has sparked criticism and confusion, as the UK, not being a combatant in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, is not actually restricted by the terms of the Montreux Convention. Turkeyβs claim thus appears to misinterpret or misapply the convention, casting doubt on the true motives behind this decision in the complex geopolitical landscape of the Black Sea region.
This is more duplicitous behavior by Turkey that calls into question whether it belongs in NATO and is definitely sealing its fate regarding EU membership.
Russia Uses North Korean Ballistic Missiles
This has been anticipated for a while. At least since Putin took that long train ride to Vladivostok to cozy up to North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un. Once a deal was struck for North Korea to sell artillery ammunition to Russia, the sale of ballistic missiles became inevitable.
"Russia bought ballistic missiles from North Korea and already used them for attacks on Ukraine," coordinator of the National Security Council, John Kirby said during a press briefing.
β NOELREPORTS πͺπΊ πΊπ¦ (@NOELreports) January 4, 2024
According to him, the missile has a range of 900km,https://t.co/s4EDe4Nnok
On Thursday, White House spokesman John Kirby unveiled a map showing where Russia launched the North Korean missiles into Ukraine (near Zaporizhzhia). "We anticipate that Russia will use additional North Korean missiles to target Ukraine civilian infrastructure," Kirby said pic.twitter.com/iS2tkUiEV3
β John Hudson (@John_Hudson) January 4, 2024
The impact of these missiles is being felt. Here, a Ukrainian fuel dump is targeted by one of the missiles. Previously, targets like this were out of reach.
In the recent days Ukraine has experienced Strikes on FOBs, by what I suspect to be North Korean KN-23 Ballistic Missiles. More below.
β WarVehicleTracker (@WarVehicle) January 4, 2024
(1) FOB Containing alot of Trucks(Ural, Ural Tankers etc). The fact that the houses caught fire aswell indicates a resupply base in them. pic.twitter.com/41QVqDNzPp
MORE ON NORTH KOREA AND RUSSIA
Russia Buying Artillery Ammunition From North Korea Was Not on My Bingo Card
Operational Level
While the weather remains hostile to operations, Ukraine is carrying out a deep battle targeting Russian surface-to-air missile and electronic warfare sites. I suspect this is the early stage of a Suppression and Destruction of Enemy Air Defenses (SEAD/DEAD) campaign that will hit high gear when F-16s arrive. Expect to see them in action in the next eight weeks.
NATO to Spend $5.5 Billion for Patriot Missiles for Ukraine
The NATO Support and Procurement Agency will purchase up to 1,000 Patriot missiles. These missiles allow nations to continue to supply Ukraine with Patriot missiles while keeping their stockpiles at acceptable levels.
Every time I hear nonsense about Europe not doing its share to support Ukraine, I realize that most of the opposition to aiding Ukraine is visceral, if not downright religious. It can't be moved by any factual information because facts really don't matter.
READ: Putin's War, Week 95. The Russian Air Force Takes a Beating as Disease Rips Through the Russian Army
Ukraine Gets New Source of Artillery Ammunition
What appears to be Indian-manufactured 155mm artillery ammunition has been seen in Ukrainian Army units. Even though US and EU ammunition production is increasing, adding a major producer like India to the mix is a big plus.
It appears Ukraine is using Indian produced 155mm shells. I see some reports saying these are South African but I believe they are of Indian origin. Which is hilarious #BRICS. https://t.co/Stt4RIWnFy pic.twitter.com/mbFjDGIcKU
β the cameron account. (@cameron19460429) December 31, 2023
Combat Operations
A New War Starts
Stanislav Silchenkov enlisted in the Russian Army as a contract soldier on September 5 at age 18. He was killed in action on November 17. This will be the new normal in the Russian Army in 2024. Read the whole thread.
2/ The BBC's Russian Service reports on the death of Stanislav Silchenkov, who died on 17 November at Synkivka in the Kharkiv region, north-east of Kupiansk. According to his mother he had signed a contract to join the Russian forces only 10 weeks previously, on 5 September. pic.twitter.com/n9eHhxmzPL
β ChrisO_wiki (@ChrisO_wiki) January 3, 2024
Updated Video
Last week, I posted about a Russian attack near Synkivka (see the Northern Front section for the location of this battle). This is a higher quality and expanded video of the same event.
Detailed footage of the failed attack on Synkivka last week, repelled by the 30th mechanized brigade. Infantry is being dropped inside the treelines and trenches while their armor is being destroyed. https://t.co/FKSpY6RIKY pic.twitter.com/HTEXIXvhAM
β NOELREPORTS πͺπΊ πΊπ¦ (@NOELreports) January 4, 2024
READ MORE: Putin's War, Week 96. Blowback From a Sunk Ship as Russia Launches Largest Missile Attack of the War
Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures
HIMARS Strike on Russian Drone Crew
In this video, you can see a Russian drone team recovering what appears to be an Orlan reconnaissance drone in Zaporizhzhia. They are unaware they are being observed by a Ukrainian drone linked to an indirect fire network.
HIMARS strike on a Russian Zala UAV operators. Zaporizhzhia front. https://t.co/Xx8AgOpL41 pic.twitter.com/8Lv4tyPB3O
β Special Kherson Cat ππΊπ¦ (@bayraktar_1love) January 3, 2024
Both sides employ specialized hunter-killer teams to locate and destroy opposing drone operators. This is a lesson I hope the Department of Defense is noticing.
Maybe They Are Paying Attention
This is from a Wall Street Journal report on a new Department of Defense school at Fort Sill, OK.
Interesting video, courtesy the Wall Street Journal, showing the new drone warfare training academy out of Fort Sill, Oklahoma. pic.twitter.com/FZiD9uuREI
β Havoc Six (@Havoc_Six) January 2, 2024
This school trains soldiers in counter-drone tactics. I was pleasantly surprised to see small arms used against low-cost FPV drones. Maybe there is hope for the Pentagon.
Driving the Cost Down
Ukraine employs mobile anti-drone groups that are deployed along the projected flight path of incoming drones and cruise missiles after the air defense system detects them. Here, an ancient ZSU-23-2 towed anti-aircraft gun successfully engages a Russian cruise missile. Using anti-aircraft guns and small arms against lower-cost targets is better than firing a $1 million-plus missile at every aerial target.
Good performance by a Ukrainian crew of a ZU-23-2, shooting down a Russian cruise missile.
β (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) January 2, 2024
Source: https://t.co/qDVPvaJm86#Ukraine pic.twitter.com/1bRPlBJqEU
Combined Arms 2.0
Ukrainians Bradley with TOW ATGM strikes a Russian BMP that was covering the Russia assault group.
β Getty (@region776) January 1, 2024
Immediately after hitting the BMP, they engage with the 25mm Bushmaster cannon, while a drone drops grenades on the infantry. pic.twitter.com/EjjQcycb6P
If you go through the video frame by frame, you can see the TOW missile at 0:07, right before it hits the left front fender of the BMP.
Northern Front
Kharkiv
Across this front, there was combat action but not of the intensity we've seen in the last few weeks, and without significant changes in the front lines.
Kupiansk
Attacks continued on this front but without the intensity of last week. The front line remained stable.
Donbas
Bahkmut-Klishchiivka-Andriivka
The Russians made minor gains south of Bakhmut in front of Klishchiivka. The overall status of the line is stable.
Avdiivka
Fighting is concentrated around Stepove, north of the "Coke Plant" and "Rail Yard." The front remains stable, and neither side has made significant gains.
Happy New Year
At midnight on New Year's Eve, Ukrainian artillery struck the Donbas Palace Hotel in Donetsk. It is known to be quarters for high-ranking Russian officers and Russian VIPs.
At night, there were six explosions at the Donbass Palace hotel in #Donetsk.
β ΠΡΠΏΡΠ΅ΡΠΎ Global (@Espresotveng) January 1, 2024
The occupiers' "elite" gathered there for a New Year's Eve dinner with #Moscow guests.
Four dead, thirteen wounded pic.twitter.com/waPRGk8oQm
Southern Front
Combat operations continued on this front, though at a much lower intensity than in the last two weeks.
Zaporizhzhia
Robotyne-Verbove- Novoprokopivka
Ukraine made minor gains near Verbove. The Russian attempt to retake Surovikin Line trenches lost during the summer has stopped making progress.
Kherson
There was scattered combat in this area, but the lines remained static.
Rear Areas
Crimea
Sevastopol
The headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet and a Russian air defense radar were destroyed in a missile attack on Thursday.
Ukraine attacked several positions in Sevastopol damaging a Russian command post and radar installation pic.twitter.com/bOfiids9tK
β Greyskull (@FreudGreyskull) January 4, 2024
Multiple Locations
On Ukrainian Military Interlligence Directorate Head Budanov's birthday, Ukraine attacks multiple targets in Russia-occupied Crimea and even on internationally recognised Russia's sovereign territory in Novorossiysk (de facto Russia-occupied genocidally wiped out Circassia). pic.twitter.com/4tfGbQcXl2
β Sergej Sumlenny, LL.M (@sumlenny) January 4, 2024
Russia
Attacks on Belgorod
BREAKING βΌοΈ Belgorod is under attack by the Russian air defense right NOW
β PS01 (@PStyle0ne1) January 2, 2024
Are they going to fight until the last Russian? pic.twitter.com/lCaZq528p9
In the last round, the Ukrainians used six Tochka missiles and six missiles from the Ukrainian-developed Vilkha-M multiple rocket launcher system. The target seems to be Russian S-300 anti-aircraft systems.
More Belgorod
Photo of the aftermath of FPV drones attack on the logistics base of one of the units of the 1st Tank Army of Russia. Shebekinsky district, Belgorod region, Russia:
β Special Kherson Cat ππΊπ¦ (@bayraktar_1love) January 4, 2024
β01/01/2024 at 08:00.
The main strike was on the premises of the fuel and lubricants warehouse. From there, the⦠pic.twitter.com/AWtzn8LHVY
Chelyabinsk
Ukrainian operatives destroyed a Su-34 strike fighter on the ground at an airfield in Chelyabinsk, some 1100 miles from Ukraine.
Ukrainian Intelligence Directorate is taking credit for a Russian Su-34 destroyed last night in Chelyabinsk at the Shagol airfield.
β Jay in Kyiv (@JayinKyiv) January 4, 2024
Good. pic.twitter.com/BGppZMpPNc
Novorossiysk
π¨ Russian air defense active over Novorossiysk, port to which much of the Black Sea Fleet previously retreated from occupied Crimea. Ukrainian drones are over the Kerch Bridge, air defense active, bridge closed. pic.twitter.com/fmftgcoHTe
β Igor Sushko (@igorsushko) January 4, 2024
What's Next
As I've said time and again, the next main fight is for US aid to Ukraine. I'm not so much concerned about it happening because there are supermajorities in both chambers of Congress who support it. I'm much more concerned about it being delayed. Even though Speaker Johnson insists that aid to Ukraine and Israel is linked in some fashion to border security for the US, given the ambivalence of Congress to immigration control for the last half-century, I think it would be a safe bet to assume that some workaround will come out of this that continues to do what has been done for Ukraine and the border.
The arrival of F-16 fighters will not be a "game changer," but it will definitely make things a lot more interesting for the Russians. I think we can expect to see German Chancellor Olaf Scholz resign in the April timeframe and be replaced by a more aggressive leader. Before he goes, I think Germany will release their Taurus stealth cruise missile to Ukraine. There is a good chance that Russia has scored an "own goal" in using North Korean ballistic missiles to attack Ukrainian targets will result in more ATACMS being released to Ukraine by the US.
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