Putin's War, Week 97. The Missile War Continues

By streiff | 8:22 PM on January 04, 2024
The opinions expressed by contributors are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of RedState.com.
CREDIT: Image by Freepik

Here we are, coming up on Week 100. Sorry for the delay...again...in getting this update out.

There isn't a lot of new stuff to report, and I'm tired of reporting the same old stuff week after week. Congress is out of town, Brussels is somnolent, and Ukraine still has that unique blend of mud and snow that makes operations difficult.

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Russia put on a second display of fireworks on January 2, executing the second-largest missile attack of the war using 95 missiles against the previous record of 122. Among the missiles used were North Korean versions of the Soviet SCUD ballistic missile. As I write this, Ukraine is carrying out missile attacks on a wide range of targets in Occupied Crimea and Russia. None of these attacks will move the needle much.

Here are some of my past updates. For all my Ukraine War coverage, click here.

Putin's War, Week 96. Blowback From a Sunk Ship as Russia Launches Largest Missile Attack of the War – RedState

Putin's War, Week 95. The Russian Air Force Takes a Beating as Disease Rips Through the Russian Army

Putin's War, Week 94. Putin Makes Shocker AnnouncementUSnd the War in Washington Goes Into High Gear 

Putin's War, Week 93. General Winter Hits the Brakes, Offensive Postmortems and Funding Fights

Putin's War, Week 92. Ukraine Gets Its Own Divine Wind and With Friends Like China, Who Needs Enemies 

PutiUSWar, Week 91. Mud and Snow Beats Fire and Steel, and TumbleweeUS Are Blowing Through Sevastopol

Putin's War, Week 90. Grain Corridor Reopens and Russia Hints at Another Major Retreat 

Putin's War, Week 89. Zelensky Gets an EU Invitation, the EU Looks East and the Russians Have a Timetable

Putin's War, Week 88. TIME Magazine and the Offensive GEUs a Postmortem blindside Zelensky 

Putin's War, Week 87. The Battlefield Shifts to Washington and Brussels

Putin's War, Week 86. The Very Resistible Force Meets the Immovable Object in Donbas

Politico-Strategic Level

Russia Launches Second Missile Blitz

Last week, Russia launched its largest missile attack of the war. Russia fired 122 missiles and 35 Shaned drones into Ukraine. On January 2 it followed up with a second wave of attacks launching 99 missiles and 35 Shahed drones. All the Shahed drones were shot down. This is not unusual, and they seem to be used to clutter radar screens and draw missile fire before the real attack arrives. On New Year's Eve, Ukraine shot down 87 of 90 Shahed.

This is the box score. The four missiles missing from the tally were four Kh-31P antiradiation missiles targeting Ukrainian radar emitters. There is no report on those weapons. More about those twelve ballistic missiles later in the update.

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The missiles that made it through the defensive missile shield did a lot of damage to civilian targets.

What is notable is that all ten of the "hypersonic" missiles fired at Ukraine were shot down. This demonstrates the increasing lethality of Patriot missiles when engaging early-generation hypersonic missiles. 

In addition to this being an outstanding technical achievement, the data we are learning from these engagements will make Patriot more effective in the future.


READ MORE: 

Putin's War, Week 96. Blowback From a Sunk Ship as Russia Launches Largest Missile Attack of the War 

Putin's War, Week 64. Patriots Score Big and the Scene Is Set for Offensive Action

Ukraine Confirms a US-Supplied Patriot Air Defense System Shot Down a Russian Hypersonic Missile 

Prisoner Exchanges Resume

Prisoner-of-war exchanges between Ukraine and Russia resumed on Wednesday, with 230 Ukrainian prisoners being swapped for 248 Russians. Many of the released Ukrainian prisoners were taken on Snake Island in the first few days of the war and at the siege of Mariupol (Mariupol Surrenders to the Russian Army After Epic 82-Day Siege). This is the largest exchange since the war started.

There had been 48 exchanges until the Russians stopped participating after the August 7, 2023 exchange. Compare the Ukrainian (upper) with the Russian (lower) events.

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READ MORE: Putin's War, Week 92. Ukraine Gets Its Own Divine Wind and With Friends Like China, Who Needs Enemies – RedState

IAEA Booted from Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Pant

The Russians have barred IAEA staff from critical areas of the ZNPP. No one is sure of the reason.

Turkey Blocks Delivery of Minehunters to Ukraine

Turkey has blocked the delivery of two British minehunting ships to Ukraine.

As John Konrad noted: 

On Tuesday, Turkey made the controversial decision to block two British minehunter ships from entering the Black Sea, citing the Montreux Convention. This move has sparked criticism and confusion, as the UK, not being a combatant in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, is not actually restricted by the terms of the Montreux Convention. Turkey’s claim thus appears to misinterpret or misapply the convention, casting doubt on the true motives behind this decision in the complex geopolitical landscape of the Black Sea region.

This is more duplicitous behavior by Turkey that calls into question whether it belongs in NATO and is definitely sealing its fate regarding EU membership. 

Russia Uses North Korean Ballistic Missiles

This has been anticipated for a while. At least since Putin took that long train ride to Vladivostok to cozy up to North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un. Once a deal was struck for North Korea to sell artillery ammunition to Russia, the sale of ballistic missiles became inevitable.

The impact of these missiles is being felt. Here, a Ukrainian fuel dump is targeted by one of the missiles. Previously, targets like this were out of reach.

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MORE ON NORTH KOREA AND RUSSIA

Russia Buying Artillery Ammunition From North Korea Was Not on My Bingo Card

Putin's War, Week 81 

Operational Level

While the weather remains hostile to operations, Ukraine is carrying out a deep battle targeting Russian surface-to-air missile and electronic warfare sites. I suspect this is the early stage of a Suppression and Destruction of Enemy Air Defenses (SEAD/DEAD) campaign that will hit high gear when F-16s arrive. Expect to see them in action in the next eight weeks. 

NATO to Spend $5.5 Billion for Patriot Missiles for Ukraine

The NATO Support and Procurement Agency will purchase up to 1,000 Patriot missiles. These missiles allow nations to continue to supply Ukraine with Patriot missiles while keeping their stockpiles at acceptable levels.

Every time I hear nonsense about Europe not doing its share to support Ukraine, I realize that most of the opposition to aiding Ukraine is visceral, if not downright religious. It can't be moved by any factual information because facts really don't matter.

READ: Putin's War, Week 95. The Russian Air Force Takes a Beating as Disease Rips Through the Russian Army

Ukraine Gets New Source of Artillery Ammunition

What appears to be Indian-manufactured 155mm artillery ammunition has been seen in Ukrainian Army units. Even though US and EU ammunition production is increasing, adding a major producer like India to the mix is a big plus.

Combat Operations

A New War Starts

Stanislav Silchenkov enlisted in the Russian Army as a contract soldier on September 5 at age 18. He was killed in action on November 17. This will be the new normal in the Russian Army in 2024. Read the whole thread.

Updated Video

Last week, I posted about a Russian attack near Synkivka (see the Northern Front section for the location of this battle). This is a higher quality and expanded video of the same event.

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READ MORE: Putin's War, Week 96. Blowback From a Sunk Ship as Russia Launches Largest Missile Attack of the War

Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures

HIMARS Strike on Russian Drone Crew

In this video, you can see a Russian drone team recovering what appears to be an Orlan reconnaissance drone in Zaporizhzhia. They are unaware they are being observed by a Ukrainian drone linked to an indirect fire network.

Both sides employ specialized hunter-killer teams to locate and destroy opposing drone operators. This is a lesson I hope the Department of Defense is noticing.

Maybe They Are Paying Attention

This is from a Wall Street Journal report on a new Department of Defense school at Fort Sill, OK.

This school trains soldiers in counter-drone tactics. I was pleasantly surprised to see small arms used against low-cost FPV drones. Maybe there is hope for the Pentagon.

Driving the Cost Down

Ukraine employs mobile anti-drone groups that are deployed along the projected flight path of incoming drones and cruise missiles after the air defense system detects them. Here, an ancient ZSU-23-2 towed anti-aircraft gun successfully engages a Russian cruise missile. Using anti-aircraft guns and small arms against lower-cost targets is better than firing a $1 million-plus missile at every aerial target.

Combined Arms 2.0

If you go through the video frame by frame, you can see the TOW missile at 0:07, right before it hits the left front fender of the BMP.

Northern Front

Kharkiv

Across this front, there was combat action but not of the intensity we've seen in the last few weeks, and without significant changes in the front lines.

Kupiansk

Attacks continued on this front but without the intensity of last week. The front line remained stable.


Donbas

Bahkmut-Klishchiivka-Andriivka

The Russians made minor gains south of Bakhmut in front of Klishchiivka. The overall status of the line is stable.

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Avdiivka

Fighting is concentrated around Stepove, north of the "Coke Plant" and "Rail Yard." The front remains stable, and neither side has made significant gains.


Happy New Year

At midnight on New Year's Eve, Ukrainian artillery struck the Donbas Palace Hotel in Donetsk. It is known to be quarters for high-ranking Russian officers and Russian VIPs. 

Southern Front

Combat operations continued on this front, though at a much lower intensity than in the last two weeks.

Zaporizhzhia

Robotyne-Verbove- Novoprokopivka

Ukraine made minor gains near Verbove. The Russian attempt to retake Surovikin Line trenches lost during the summer has stopped making progress.


Kherson

There was scattered combat in this area, but the lines remained static.


Rear Areas

Crimea

Sevastopol

The headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet and a Russian air defense radar were destroyed in a missile attack on Thursday.

Multiple Locations

Russia

Attacks on Belgorod

In the last round, the Ukrainians used six Tochka missiles and six missiles from the Ukrainian-developed Vilkha-M multiple rocket launcher system. The target seems to be Russian S-300 anti-aircraft systems.

 

More Belgorod

Chelyabinsk

Ukrainian operatives destroyed a Su-34 strike fighter on the ground at an airfield in Chelyabinsk, some 1100 miles from Ukraine.

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Novorossiysk

What's Next

As I've said time and again, the next main fight is for US aid to Ukraine. I'm not so much concerned about it happening because there are supermajorities in both chambers of Congress who support it. I'm much more concerned about it being delayed. Even though Speaker Johnson insists that aid to Ukraine and Israel is linked in some fashion to border security for the US, given the ambivalence of Congress to immigration control for the last half-century, I think it would be a safe bet to assume that some workaround will come out of this that continues to do what has been done for Ukraine and the border.

The arrival of F-16 fighters will not be a "game changer," but it will definitely make things a lot more interesting for the Russians. I think we can expect to see German Chancellor Olaf Scholz resign in the April timeframe and be replaced by a more aggressive leader. Before he goes, I think Germany will release their Taurus stealth cruise missile to Ukraine. There is a good chance that Russia has scored an "own goal" in using North Korean ballistic missiles to attack Ukrainian targets will result in more ATACMS being released to Ukraine by the US.


Streiff

Former infantry officer, CGSC grad and Army Operations Center alumnus. Also an amateur historian (Colonial America) and a dabbler in historical fiction.
RedState member since 2004. "He would rather pinch off his own head than admit he's wrong" -- Daily Kos. Follow me on Twitter. 

Read more by Streiff
Tags: RUSSIA UKRAINE PUTIN'S WAR

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