Putin's War, Week 98.

By streiff | 6:30 AM on January 15, 2024
The opinions expressed by contributors are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of RedState.com.
CREDIT: Office of the President of Ukraine

Welcome to this latest edition of the RedState Ukraine Update, or, more accurately, my Ukraine Update posted on RedState. Sorry about the lateness of the edition. The battle lines have remained the same since the last update, and there has been no political action as Congress is in recess. Probably the most interesting item to appear this week is the number of Russian cities challenged by an absence of heat in subzero temperatures (real temperature, not Celsius). The cause is the companies who make the repair parts doing more lucrative defense work and the blue-collar workforce being ravaged by Russia's conscription system. And I have some thoughts on the demise of Putin propagandist Gonzalo Lira that may conflict with those of Tucker Carlson, David Sacks, and an array of other Putin fans.

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Here are some of my past updates. For all my Ukraine War coverage, click here.

Putin's War, Week 97. The Missile War Continues 

Putin's War, Week 96. Blowback From a Sunk Ship as Russia Launches Largest Missile Attack of the War 

Putin's War, Week 95. The Russian Air Force Takes a Beating as Disease Rips Through the Russian Army

Putin's War, Week 94. Putin Makes Shocker AnnouncementUSnd the War in Washington Goes Into High Gear 

Putin's War, Week 93. General Winter Hits the Brakes, Offensive Postmortems and Funding Fights

Putin's War, Week 92. Ukraine Gets Its Own Divine Wind and With Friends Like China, Who Needs Enemies 

PutiUSWar, Week 91. Mud and Snow Beats Fire and Steel, and TumbleweeUS Are Blowing Through Sevastopol

Putin's War, Week 90. Grain Corridor Reopens and Russia Hints at Another Major Retreat 

Putin's War, Week 89. Zelensky Gets an EU Invitation, the EU Looks East and the Russians Have a Timetable

Putin's War, Week 88. TIME Magazine and the Offensive GEUs a Postmortem blindside Zelensky 

Putin's War, Week 87. The Battlefield Shifts to Washington and Brussels

Politico-Strategic Level

Sweden To Station Troops in Latvia

A few days ago, my colleague Ward Clark posted on Swedish officials, including the Defense Minister, warning Swedes that war was possible in the near future. Along with that warning came the decision to station Swedish troops in Latvia.

Sweden plans to deploy 800 troops to Latvia early next year, reinforcing NATO’s presence in the region, as announced by Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson. The Swedish soldiers will be stationed along Latvia’s border to act as a deterrent against Russian forces, collaborating with a Canada-led battle group already stationed in Ādaži, which includes troops from ten other countries such as Albania, Italy, Poland, and Spain.

This follows a decision by Germany to station troops in Lithuania.

BACKGROUND:

Already? Sweden Soon to Join NATO: Defense Minister Issues War-Warning to Swedish People

Putin's War, Week 95. The Russian Air Force Takes a Beating as Disease Rips Through the Russian Army

Black Sea Mine Clearance

One of the side effects of the indiscipline within Russia's military is that some areas of the Black Sea are heavily mined, and there are a large number of drifting mines. The minefields were poorly described, which resulted in commercial ships hitting mines. My gut feeling is that this is a feature of the Russian mining effort, not a bug.

Wednesday, Turkey, Bulgaria, and Romania signed an agreement to begin clearing mines in the Black Sea. The operation will be under Turkish leadership.

Heat and Gasoline Shortages Hit Russia

Even though Russia banned the export of gasoline and diesel in September, that hasn't prevented a nationwide gasoline shortage.

Heating is also systematically failing across Russia, but it is hitting cities like Moscow the hardest. 

This is not some sort of a Western information operation. Russian milblogging group Rybar has momentarily turned its attention from covering the Russian invasion of Ukraine to tracking Russian cities and neighborhoods in Moscow that do not have heat.


These failures are due primarily to the companies that used to service the central heating systems now working for the Russian war effort. As the war drags on, this will become worse. A Russian political commentator on Telegram says it is because the men who do the repairs are frequently turned over to the military by their employers.

The fact that the “hard worker” type, that is, that same worker or plumber who monitors the condition of utility pipes, is especially vulnerable to mobilization.  

He works in absolutely transparent for the authorities and organizations subordinate to them places, he usually served in the military, and usually, such people are submitted to the military registration and enlistment office much more often than office employees or chauffeurs for the management. They don't feel sorry for them.

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Read the whole thread. Eye-opening.

The second-order problem the Russian government has to address is the impact the war is having on society. The Russian Army that invaded Ukraine has ceased to exist. As noted above, the blue-collar guys who keep the country running bear the brunt of the war. The phrase "A rich man's war and a poor man's fight" is not unique to capitalist societies. The services available to returning and frequently disabled veterans are minimal to non-existent. There is no vocational rehabilitation or medical care. So, a significant number of Russian men will simply not contribute anything during their most productive years.

BACKGROUND: US Intelligence Assessment Points to the Destruction of Russia's Pre-Ukraine Invasion Army

Across Russia, things are beginning to look like the 1980s again.

New Highway to Ukraine

This is just another example of how this war has forced integration into Western Europe at an accelerated pace. Once the war is ended, the commercial and political ties that have developed along this corridor will remain.

Ukraine Leans Toward Mobilization

The Ukrainian Parliament is considering a general mobilization law. It's no accident that the most popular man in Ukraine has been pressed into service to support it. 

Ukrainian Support For War Remains High

An opinion poll in Ukraine indicates that support for the war and the government remain very high, Zelensky has a 66% approval rating. The most popular public figure is the Armed Forces commander-in-chief, General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, with an 88% approval rating. Public opinion is not as optimistic as it was in December 2022, coming off the extremely successful fall offensive that year. Still, there is no wavering on the necessity to continue the struggle.

Patriot Missile Kerfuffle

The New York Times had a very informative piece on Patriot operations in Ukraine a week ago. The Patriot has proven its worth in this war. It has proven it can defeat Russian hypersonic missiles, and it has smashed the Russian Air Force to the extent that Russian strike aircraft don't venture from the front lines.

BACKGROUND:

Four Russian Aircraft Were Shot Down Over Russia in a Couple of Minutes and No One Is Giving Straight Answers

Ukraine Confirms a US-Supplied Patriot Air Defense System Shot Down a Russian Hypersonic Missile

Patriot Leaves Skeptics Wordless, Russians Embarrassed, and Kiev Littered With Pieces of Putin’s Wonder Weapons

Putin's War, Week 93. General Winter Hits the Brakes, Offensive Postmortems and Funding Fights

Putin's War, Week 95. The Russian Air Force Takes a Beating as Disease Rips Through the Russian Army

This paragraph appeared in the story:

But White House and Pentagon officials have warned that the United States will soon be unable to keep Ukraine’s Patriot batteries supplied with interceptor missiles, which can cost $2 million to $4 million apiece.

I don't know anything about the person or persons who write using this "John Ridge" account. But they are generally accurate if they do manage to give a damned good imitation of an imperious and insufferable t**t while doing it. Here, the account is absolutely on target on all points. I took that part of the story as an information operation by the White House and Pentagon to pressure Congress to act.

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David Sacks Has a Sad

Ordinarily, I wouldn't cover this kind of crap, but since Putin propagandist David Sacks suffered a spell of sadness and spread it over the internet, I will. This is how it started.

John Donne told us, "Any man's death diminishes me," but Donne never met the pustulent sack of guts that was Gonzalo Lira. 

Lira is a Chilean-American ex-pat YouTuber known as "Coach Red Pill" who has lived in Kharkiv, Ukraine, for several years. Immediately after the Russians invaded, he undertook the dubious evolutionary strategy of switching the focus of his videos from dating advice to pro-Russian commentary. Ukraine's security services arrested him on May 1, 2023, and because he was a huge threat to the Ukrainian war effort, he was immediately released on bail. Then he announced on Twitter that he was going to flee Ukraine, which violated his bail conditions.

He was arrested as he attempted to do just that. He's been in jail ever since. Because he pumped out Russian propaganda, he became a cause célèbre for Tucker Carlson and now David Sacks. 

I don't know how he died, but I don't care. The arrogance of thinking that you can crank out enemy propaganda in a country at war and get a free pass because of some tenuous connection to the United States is just mindboggling. Maybe someone else will learn a valuable life lesson from Lira's stupidity. That anyone defends Lira speaks to an incredible level of stupidity, dishonesty, or allegiance to Russia, if not some of all. The Brits hanged William "Lord Haw Haw" Joyce for making propaganda broadcasts for the Nazis. The fact that LIra survived his first arrest and was released on bail is a testament to the restraint of the Ukrainian security services and court system.

You can bet if this assclown were alive today and in the US, he'd be waving his Palestinian flag and chanting, "From the River to the Sea." 

If you want to feel sorry for him, that's your right. But this is a classic case of shooting yourself in the foot and then complaining because it hurts.

You can find more details on Lira here and here.

BACKGROUND: Putin's War, Week 63. Chechens Replace Wagner in Bakhmut, Storm Shadow Arrives, and Russia Says 'Family Guy' Is a Meany-Pants

Operational Level

New Indian Ammunition Plant

There is the constant talk of "shell hunger," a shortage of artillery ammunition on both sides. The tankies and vatniks aren't going to want to hear it, but Ukraine will ultimately win this battle. Russia is relying on North Korean ammunition to tide them over until they can produce enough ammunition to sustain their combat operations. I don't think that is possible because no matter how much ammunition is produced, it can only get to the front after being shipped by one of two routes along a very limited number of rail lines. It must be stored within artillery range of the front lines and then moved to the front by a hodgepodge of military trucks, civilian trucks, vans, and automobiles. 

At last count, fourteen countries were producing artillery ammunition for Ukraine. Germany and the US will approximately triple their pre-invasion production levels this month. Another major player has entered the scene: India. India becoming a supplier of artillery ammunition to Ukraine became public in early January and was covered in my last update. Now it has entered the market in a big way.

After handing over its first Indian made drones to the Navy, the Adani Group is going ahead with the inauguration of a mega ammunition plant in Kanpur, which it bills as the largest such integrated facility in south Asia.

...

"Looking at what's happening on the geo political stage on the Middle East and eastern Europe, demand has shot up in the past two years. We are talking about demands for 100s of millions of rounds which is coming from different parts of the world," Ashish Rajvanshi, chiwf wxwcutive officer of Adani Defence & Aerospace told ET.

The plant is likely to be expanded in the coming months, with a total of 500 acres set aside, and will produce large caliber ammunition, including 155 mm artillery shells that are in big demand across the world due to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. "The ammunition plant is now getting operationalised on the small caliber and very soon on the large caliber," Rajvanshi added.

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BACKGROUND: Putin's War, Week 97. The Missile War Continues 

New Armored Vehicle Repair Depot For Ukraine

The German defense company Flensburger Fahrzeugbau Gesellschaft (FFG) is breaking ground on a new repair depot to service German-made equipment.

[German Member of Parliament] Markus Faber emphasized the strategic importance of establishing domestic repair facilities, highlighting that it will significantly reduce repair time and eliminate the need for expensive and time-consuming transportation of equipment abroad. Furthermore, the initiative will provide an opportunity for the Ukrainian armed forces to train their mechanics on-site.

As I've posted before, tank, artillery, and infantry fighting vehicle factories are under construction in Ukraine, as well as several repair facilities. Russia still sends disabled vehicles to Russia for repair.

Non-Battle Attrition

This is an untold story on both sides. The constant use of aircraft, artillery, and armored vehicles greatly reduces their service life. It affects the Russian Army and Air Force much more than the Ukrainians. The Russians were never known for an efficient or even effective maintenance system. Where the Ukrainians are backstopped by a network of Western-operated repair depots staffed by contractors, and the frontline units go to some lengths to recover and evacuate damaged and inoperable equipment, the Russians don't. Russian vehicle recovery and evacuation efforts are, at best, sporadic.

Combat losses and the density of Ukrainian anti-aircraft systems have driven the gradual decrease in Russian airstrikes. But it has also been greatly aided by the wear and tear this war has imposed on the Russian Air Force.

Air Defense Battle

There was another round of attacks on multiple targets in Ukraine.on January 8.

This is the box score.

This is one point of view on why the interception rate is down.

I'm not sure I agree with all of it. I'd contend that the Russians have started selecting targets that are lightly defended, if defended at all. They focus primarily on targets very close to the front line that are not covered by the more sophisticated air defense systems. Any ballistic missile they fire outside the Kiev and Odesa areas will not be intercepted because of the limited number of Patriot systems. The Kh-101/X-101 cruise missiles and Shahed drones are easy pickings for most anti-aircraft systems; unless they are used on undefended targets, they aren't going to make it.

The saving grace is that attacks on this scale are rare. This is the third mass attack in the last month and also the smallest, being only a third of the size of the December 30 attack.


SOURCE: Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Targets

A for Effort and F for Judgment

The head of the Russian Airborne Forces mechanized forces was killed in action, helping tow a disabled armored personnel carrier. He'd delivered the tow cables and came under artillery fire while personally attaching them to the disabled track. 

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This is an "A for Effort/F for Judgment" moment. If you are a colonel and you're putting towing cables on an armored vehicle at the front lines, you've failed. What else is going on in your command that requires the commander's attention? It might be necessary as a 4.2-inch mortar platoon leader to personally clear a hang-fire on one of the guns. A company commander might have to kick in a door. But you'd do that by way of setting an example. If you are a colonel and involved in vehicle recovery, either all the real problems have been solved, or you're overwhelmed and can't cope with the job.

Deep Battle and Interdiction

Battles are fought in several different ways. While the frontline fighting in Ukraine is pretty static at the moment, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are carrying out an active deep battle. As I've mentioned nearly weekly for two years, the key to the war in Ukraine is logistics. The Russians are dependent upon two supply corridors. One line coming out of Crimea depends on ships from Russia and limited rail traffic across the Kerch Strait Bridge. The other line comes from Rostov-on-Don. 

These maps show why striking a railway bridge behind the lines can have an outsized impact on the battle. Supplies must be unloaded where the rail line ends and loaded onto trucks to move to the front. The Russian Army is designed to operate within 40km of a rail line. 

Combat Operations

Digging In Continues

Two weeks ago, I posted on the Ukrainians building their own fortification belts to act as an economy of force operation in an area vulnerable to Russian attack.

BACKGROUND: Putin's War, Week 95. The Russian Air Force Takes a Beating as Disease Rips Through the Russian Army

The use of prefabricated shelters installed by earthmoving equipment is infinitely better than the knee-deep mud-filled slits in the ground prepared by the Russians.

Check out this thread for an excellent overview of Ukrainian and Russian fortifications; for a detailed map of existing fortifications and those under construction, visit this map.

This fortification of a  sector not currently under attack is necessary because of Russian troops currently stationed there.

Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures

Inside A DPICM Strike

One of the critical munitions in the Ukrainian arsenal is US-manufactured 155mm dual-purpose improved conventional munitions.

BACKGROUND: US Releases Cluster Munitions to Ukraine in Stopgap Effort to Aid Ukraine's Offensive

This video, taken by a Russian tank commander in the Kreminna area, shows what it is like to be caught by a DPICM strike.

M2 Bradley vs. T-90

This is a rather incredible video of a Ukrainian M2 Bradly infantry fighting vehicle duking it out at close range with a Russian T-90 main battle tank. It takes place in the Avdiivka Salient.

A Bradley enters stage left and, at the road junction, opens up on the T-90 that is stopped in the road. It exits stage right. At around 0:25, the tank is hit by an explosion of some type. At first, I thought it was DPICM, but on review, I'm sure that is incorrect. About the time the explosion hits another Brad appears at the bottom right. At 0:42, the Brad opens up on the T-90 with its chaingun. By 1:39, the tank is out of control. The tank commander is leaning on the gun control, causing the turret to spin, and the driver is trying to get them the hell out of Dodge.

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This is the end. The T-90 crashes into a grove of trees, and the crew, miraculously still alive, un-asses the vehicle.

TOS-1A Hit by Drone

The TOS-1A is a fearsome MLRS that fires thermobaric and incendiary rounds. 

Drone to the Rescue

This battle takes place near Synkivka in the Kupiansk area of operations.

It starts with a Russian assault team of about six soldiers trying to overrun a Ukrainian position defended by two men. Things begin to unravel when the Russian soldier attempting to flank the Ukrainians from the top of the screen decides he has urgent business elsewhere (see 0:24). There is an exchange of hand grenades between 0:30 and 0:44. The Russians go to ground. At 1:07, a Ukrainian grenade-dropping drone goes into action and eliminates the entire Russian assault team.

Northern Front

This area had a lot of action, but there was little to show for it.

Kharkiv

There was no discernable change in the front lines.


Donbas

The Russians made incremental gains in two places, but the front line remained stable.

Bahkmut-Klishchiivka-Andriivka

There was a minor Russian advance near Bakhmut


Avdiivka

The situation in the Avdiivka Salient remained stable. The Russians made a small gain south of Marinka.


Southern Front

Zaporizhzhia

The front lines in this area remained unchanged.

Robotyne-Verbove- Novoprokopivka


Russian Attack Near Novopropivka Repelled

Kherson

The Russians have been pushing hard to reduce the Ukrainian bridgehead at Krynsky, but the bridgehead continues to hold.

The Ukrainians have established air and electronic warfare dominance over this bridgehead. Their combination of drones and artillery has succeeded in halting all Russian attacks.

Rear Areas

Crimea

Military Base Hit

A Russian military base, reported to be an air defense headquarters, was hit. Russian Telegram sources reported that all missiles were shot down, but satellite imagery says otherwise.

More Deep Battle

The Russian Black Sea Fleet has largely abandoned Sevastopol as a base of operations. Ships are based at other Black Sea ports and sortied to Sevastopol as needed. That need is mainly to transport ammunition to warehouses in Crimea.

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The list of lost and damaged Russian ships shows why Sevastopol is no longer a tenable home port.


Just like the strikes against the Russian rail line in Donbas are part of the deep battle, so is forcing the Russian Navy to evacuate a critical military facility without a direct invasion.

BACKGROUND: Massive Fireball Marks the End of A Russian Ship After Ukrainian Missile Attack

Russia

Attacks on Belgorod Continue

What's Next

The Foreign Policy SmartSet®  consensus is that 2024 will be a year of waiting. Ukraine will be trying to gather its strength, and Russia will be interfering like mad in a half dozen critical elections in the US and Europe to try to run out the clock on Western interest in the war. Personally, I'm not sure I buy that. I think Ukraine is keenly aware that a little bit of political bad luck could strip them of the military parity they've managed to achieve. I don't think Russia's economy can take another year of this. When food staples are hard to find, and your apartment doesn't have heat, your focus on world conquest diminishes.

From looking at the videos, I think there is another couple of weeks before the ground is frozen solid. When that happens, I think the action will resume in earnest.


Streiff

Former infantry officer, CGSC grad and Army Operations Center alumnus. Also an amateur historian (Colonial America) and a dabbler in historical fiction.
RedState member since 2004. "He would rather pinch off his own head than admit he's wrong" -- Daily Kos. Follow me on Twitter. 

Read more by Streiff
Tags: RUSSIA UKRAINE PUTIN'S WAR

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