My apologies for not pushing out an update last week. I was away with family. As a result, this update will not have some of the stories I would have commented on last week because the resulting post would be too long.
The big news is that it is virtually certain that the Ukrainian spring/summer offensive is underway. The Ukrainian leadership has been releasing statements that D-Day is near.
The time has come to take back what belongs to us. pic.twitter.com/sH1Yrggg8U
— Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (@CinC_AFU) May 27, 2023
“This is what is most important. The timing of how we will move forward. We will. The decisions have been made.”
The latest speech from @ZelenskyyUa https://t.co/paRyJe5Nrv— Mick Ryan, AM (@WarintheFuture) May 29, 2023
Last week the Ukrainian Armed Forces released this video.
The Facebook account of Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar published a video titled "Plans love silence. There will be no announcement of the start"
The start of the highly-anticipated counter-offensive is implied.
📹https://t.co/Er6cRNTtRw pic.twitter.com/gtYIUXG1e0— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) June 4, 2023
What we’ve seen is an increased targeting of artillery, supply, electronic warfare, troop billets, and command and control nodes. Monday, there were concentrated fires directed at Russian frontline positions.
Artillery of ZSU is intensively working along the entire front line today 🤜🏻 pic.twitter.com/U5rXoqent3
— MAKS 23 👀🇺🇦 (@Maks_NAFO_FELLA) June 3, 2023
Then a series of attacks were launched at several places along the frontline while Russian dissident units re-invaded Belgorod.
So far, there have been no sightings of Leopard 2 or Challenger 2 tanks. This indicates that they are still held in reserve.
The operational concept seems to be to probe the Russian frontline to make opportunistic gains — there have been gains of over 10 kilometers in several places — while keeping the Russian command off balance. These attacks allow the Ukrainians to judge the caliber of the defending troops and the defensive line. When weak points are identified, we can expect to see some of the estimated 20 brigades, including six armored brigades, that have disappeared from sight over the last several months, make their appearance.
Here are some of my past updates.
Putin’s War, Week 64. Patriots Score Big and the Scene Is Set for Offensive Action
Putin’s War, Week 60. Leaked Documents, a Russian Troll Exposed, and More Pieces Fall Into Place
Putin’s War, Week 59. Russia Goes ISIS and Waiting for General Mud to Take a Break
Putin’s War, Week 58. All Dressed Up and No Place to Go
Putin’s War, Week 57. Waiting for Godot.
Putin’s War, Week 51. Russia’s Slow-Mo Offensive Gets Underway
Putin’s War, Week 50. The Calm Before the Storm
Putin’s War, Week 49. Waiting for the Russian Offensive
Putin’s War, Week 48. The Logjam Breaks and the Leopards Are About to Roam the Ukrainian Landscape
Putin’s War, Week 47. Gerasimov Shakes Up the Russian Army and the Russian Spring Offensive Looms
Putin’s War, Week 44. Drones Strike Russian Strategic Bomber Base…Again… Prigozhin Makes His Move
Putin’s War, Week 42. Ukraine Gets the Nod to Strike Targets in Russia and Some Tools to Do It With
Many more are available at this link.
Politico-Strategic Level
Germany Shuts Down Russian Consulates and Approves Ukrainian Strikes in Russia
This is another in the continuation of the pattern of Russia forcing Germany to take action when Germany would rather do nothing.
#BREAKING Germany shuts down four out of five Russia’s Consulates General. RU used them openly as sabotage centers, organizing anti-Europe rallies, espionage, and other hostile actions. There was zero need for so many consulates, some located in less then 200 km from each other.
— Sergej Sumlenny (@sumlenny) May 31, 2023
⚡️Germany says Ukraine has right to strike Russian territory when it's self-defense.
Ukraine is within its right to launch strikes on Russian territory when it qualifies as self-defense, German government spokesperson Steffen Hebestreit told Deutsche Welle on May 31.
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) May 31, 2023
Keep in mind that four months ago, Germany called sending Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine an “escalation.”
Antony Blinken Spells Out US Policy in Ukraine
I wish this had been done earlier and that it had come from the White House, but with this bunch at the helm, you have to take your good news where you can find it.
“We will support efforts – whether by Brazil, China, or any other nation – if they help find a way to a just and lasting peace, consistent with the principles in the UN Charter,” @SecBlinken says in speech in Helsinki.
— Jennifer Hansler (@jmhansler) June 2, 2023
.@SecBlinken says "Ukraine’s membership in NATO will be a matter for Allies and Ukraine – not Russia – to decide."
— Jennifer Hansler (@jmhansler) June 2, 2023
The only way this war ends, and by that, I mean concludes rather than limping on as one of the world’s many “frozen conflicts,” is if Ukraine regains control of its post-1991 borders. This means the Russians must be forced to leave Donbas and Crimea. Ukraine must cease to be viewed by some in the West as a rebellious Russian satellite state and be accepted as a sovereign nation free to make its own economic, political, and military alliances. Blinken laying down this marker goes a long way toward making that happen.
He also couldn’t resist adding this.
U.S. Secretary of State Blinken:
Kremlin often claimed it has the 2nd strongest military in the world. Many believed it.
Today, many sees Russia’s military as the 2nd strongest military in Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/6imHbXGpWg
— Clash Report (@clashreport) June 2, 2023
Russia Goes After Soft Targets
Over the past two or three months, Russia’s missile attacks against heavily defended targets, like Kiev, have proven to be an embarrassment. Thursday night, the Russians appeared to have changed strategy. They started hitting civilian targets in lightly defended cities.
russian strike on #Dnipro hospital is no coincidence, russia always hits civilian objects. Just remember the terrorist attacks in Syria, the destruction of residential areas in Chechnya. In Syria, for example, after the UN handed over the list of civilian objects, russia… pic.twitter.com/tzXXrEbTpG
— Denis Danilov (@DenisDanilovL) May 26, 2023
This infographic gives an idea of the size of the Russian attacks on Ukrainian civilian targets in May.
This infographic shows the type of drone or missile used in each attack
Fake Putin Declares Martial Law
Russia’s mad hacking skillz are turning out like nearly everything else produced in Russia. On the other hand, Ukraine has been a shock to the world in its technical proficiency and using the results to maximum effect; see examples in Putin’s War, Week 62. Kremlin Droned, Russia Dissed by Friends and Allies and Ukraine’s Offensive Takes Shape, Putin’s War, Week 49. Waiting for the Russian Offensive. and While the Ukraine Focus Is on Ground Combat in Ukraine, a Major Anti-Russian Front Has Opened in Cyberspace.
Monday, several radio and television stations in Russia broadcast a deep-fake of Vladimir Putin declaring mass mobilization and martial law.
In #Russia, several radio stations and even local TV networks appear to have been hacked to broadcast a deep fake address allegedly by president Putin.
This fake address announced mass mobilisation and introduced martial law in border regions.
— Alex Kokcharov (@AlexKokcharov) June 5, 2023
Not only is this a great troll of Putin, but it reduces the credibility of any statement broadcast by any Russian leader.
Wagner PMC Tunes Up Russian Colonel
The relationship between the Russian military command and Putin crony Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner PMC has been a parlous one. Prigozhin has accused the Russian command structure of depriving Wagner of ammunition and artillery support. Two weeks ago, Prigozhin announced that his men were handing Bakhmut over to Chechen troops and clearing out; see Putin’s War, Week 63. Chechens Replace Wagner in Bakhmut, Storm Shadow Arrives and Russia Says ‘Family Guy’ Is a Meany-Pants. The Russian military hasn’t responded in kind, but they haven’t ignored it. When Wagner withdrew, they found their routes out of the city had been mined by Russian forces.
⚡ BREAKING – Prighozin: "99% of Wagner PMC units left Bakhmut, but the RF Ministry of Defense mined our escape routes to meet (detonate) our columns" pic.twitter.com/EgDwhLhFPu
— Mr. Parrot ™ 🇺🇦 (@parrot_soldier) June 2, 2023
Sunday, Wagner released a video of a prisoner they had taken. A Russian lieutenant colonel and brigade commander named Roman Venevitin gave a video confession to ordering the mining of Wagner’s routes and of firing on a vehicle carrying Wagner fighters. His nose was broken, and he was beaten during his “questioning.”
The Wagner Group has kidnapped and beaten up the commander of the 72nd Brigade of the Russian Army, Roman Venevitin.
Wagner & the 72nd Brigade fought side by side in Bakhmut. There was no live between them.
This is how Wagner treats the Russian Army pic.twitter.com/6YJK20DZCx
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) June 4, 2023
Prigozhin only gets away with this because of his connection to Putin, so o,ne must assume he’s serving some very useful function for his master.
The Invasion of Russia Continues…With Polish Help
Two weeks ago, two Russian “separatist” units fighting under nominal Ukrainian control invaded Russia’s Belgorod Oblast; this is the second such cross-border foray by the Freedom of Russia Legion and the Russian Volunteer Corps — see Putin’s War, Week 54. More NordStream Melodrama, Russia Shows Diplomatic Weakness, and the Bakhmut Flipflop and Russia Evacuates Nuclear Weapons Stockpile as ‘Dissident’ Invasion of Russia Continues. After a temporary withdrawal, the two groups launched another invasion in a different spot.
🇷🇺🇷🇺🇷🇺🤫🤫The situation in Shebekino (Belgorod region)
The city is completely under the control of the RF Armed Forces. The fighter reports that all residents have been evacuated, the enemy periodically shells the village. pic.twitter.com/JSO9rrBmws
— Theresa 🇷🇺 🇳🇬 (@tretter50001) June 6, 2023
According to reports, the only Russian troops available are conscript formations that aren’t terribly proficient. Belgorod has a large contingent of Territorial Defense Forces, but the Russian military has refused to arm them.
As the latest twist to this story, the Polish Volunteer Corps is also participating in this expedition.
#Russia: The Polish Volunteer Corps (a pro-#Ukraine militia made up of Polish volunteers) has reportedly taken part in today’s attack in Belgorod. The militia has also been seen fighting in Zaporizhzhia, and has trained and fought alongside the far-right Russian Volunteer Corps. pic.twitter.com/qJRzPbmEkH
— POPULAR FRONT (@PopularFront_) June 5, 2023
Russian Television Comments on the Kakhovka Dam Collapse
This is part of the continuing series of subtitled Russian news and current affairs programming to let you see the official government-sanctioned take on events.
Tuesday, the hydroelectric dam at Nova Kakhovka in Occupied Ukraine suffered a catastrophic failure. You can read my post on the subject at Ukraine’s Nova Kakhovka Dam Is Blown up Unleashing Widespread Flooding. The government-sanctioned line from the Kremlin was that Ukraine was behind the explosion. This is how their top-level commentariat describes the event.
The explosion of Kakhovka HPP was beneficial to Russia and Russian army, claims Vladimir Saldo (acting "governor" of temporarily occupied Kherson region) on air with Solovyev.
Even "authorities" and propagandists admit that Russia profited from the act of terror it committed. pic.twitter.com/vSSjkSq4K6
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) June 7, 2023
Genocide is the New Black
Olga Skabeeva, Russia's propagandist-in-chief, calls for the extermination of all human beings in the Kharkiv region as a way to finally solve the Ukrainian question. It's a major departure from the more traditional genocidal rhetoric that accompanied Russia's invasion. 🧵 1/ https://t.co/LL9Ewe6GCT
— Oleksandr Polianichev (@OPolianichev) June 4, 2023
Operational Level
As the first week of the Ukrainian offensive starts, this is the general situation. Four identifiable Ukrainian offensive actions are underway. I will discuss them based on the map below, starting in the north.
CREDIT: Base map via ISW Interactive Map of the Ukraine War.
In northern Kharkiv, there has been action east of Kupiansk that may be focused on reducing the Russian salient along the border.
A drive is underway north and south of Bakhmut. This is happening as Wagner PMC extricates itself from the war and is relieved by Chechen forces. The main result of this push has been about a kilometer of ground gained on either flank and the Russians transferring some of their more competent units from Zaporizhzhia to shore up the defense.
Next is a series of offensive actions on the southern flank of the Ukrainian salient at Avdiivka. The Russians have been trying to encircle the Ukrainian forces there for several months. The Ukrainian movement seems to have the objective of reducing the pressure there.
Finally, the Ukrainians are pushing against the shoulders of a Russian salient in southern Donetsk.
None of these strike me as the setup for the main attack. In my view, they are shaping and economy of force operations designed to freeze Russian forces in place and possibly force the Russians to commit forces from whatever operational reserve they have assembled to stop Ukrainian advances.
Combat Operations
First Kill of a Leopard 2 Tank Caught on Video
The Russians have been circulating this video by a Russian Ka-52 attack helicopter claiming it killed two Leopard 2 tanks.
This is possible the dumbest kill video of this whole war and I really mean it.
This Russian Ka-52 attack chopper crew thought that they have targeted and destroyed Leopard 2 tanks (you read this correctly).
Even a semi-professional can clearly see that this are agricultural… pic.twitter.com/cvfgqA9tfj
— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) June 6, 2023
There are several still images of Russian origin that purport to show Leopard 2 tanks in action or destroyed. What is missing is the video from which the stills were taken. Until credible video emerges of Leopard 2 tanks, I will consider them as still in reserve.
Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures (TTP)
Russia Adjusts HIMARS Fire On Itself
The ubiquity of social media presents a problematic security environment for Ukraine and Russia. In this video, a Russian camera crew covering the HIMARS attack on a military base in Occupied Donetsk was caught in a follow-on attack on the same building.
They were caught in a new attack because the Ukrainian military apparently used their video feed for a damage assessment and decided there was more work to be done.
Absurd situation in Donetsk:
🟢 8:45 – 6 HIMARS missiles arrive at the Donetsk Research Center on the location of the Russians.
🟢 9:00 – Rusnya publishes photos of the shelling, thereby correcting the blow.
🟢 10:00 – 5 HIMARS rockets arrive at the same building again https://t.co/pZRJVHVUxJ
— PStyleOne1 (@PStyle0ne1) May 26, 2023
Southern Front
The past two weeks have seen a large number of attacks against Russian logistics areas and troop concentrations using Storm Shadow cruise missiles. There has been little ground action in the area.
Zaporizhzhia
Partisan Activity
Serhiy Dydovdyuk and his daughter Yana were killed by a bomb placed under their car. Both were active in the Occupation government.
/1. Yesterday, information began to appear that in Mykhailivka, Zaporozhzhia region, a couple more colobarants were liquidated. Serhiy Dydovydyuk and his 33-year-old daughter Yana were killed as a result of detonation of IED which was placedunder a car.
https://t.co/QiO33Bb2oS pic.twitter.com/oB7ijV0oec— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 3, 2023
More Partisan Activity
Mayor of Melitopol, Ivan Fedorov, reports that the railway track near Dolyns'ke was blown up. It was used to transport Russian personnel and military equipment to the front, but not anymore. pic.twitter.com/pNRmhfQES5
— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) June 3, 2023
Rear Areas
Russia
Spook Hunting?
Two weeks ago, I posted on the drone attacks on the Kremlin and the pricey neighborhood adjacent to it; Putin’s War, Week 62. Kremlin Droned, Russia Dissed by Friends and Allies, and Ukraine’s Offensive Takes Shape. NBC News quotes US officials as saying that the buildings struck all had a lot of residents affiliated with the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR). From that, they infer that the high-profile attack’s real target was Russian foreign intelligence.
“A senior U.S. official and a congressional staffer with knowledge of the matter said the drone strikes appeared aimed at what were believed to be the Moscow residences of Russian intelligence officers…” https://t.co/8yftjbqogK
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) June 6, 2023
I've added all geolocated visuals of today's drones attack on Moscow to my earlier Google map with the AD systems spotted there. All the pins are clickable and include links to the sources. https://t.co/QvPSm1ysjK
— Mark Krutov (@kromark) May 30, 2023
Color me skeptical. They infer that the high-profile attack’s real target was SVR officials. While I can see the value of striking at the Russians who enable Putin’s War, intelligence operations in Ukraine and other former Soviet Republics come under the FSB, not the SVR. If the SVR was targeted, the Ukrainians might have been doing someone in Europe a favor — looking at you, Poland.
Friendly Fire
Ukraine has carried out a number of drone attacks on Russian airbases, some much closer to Moscow than Kiev. While most Ukrainian drone attacks have produced minor damage, the psychological impact is significant.
🚨Russia: Air defense appears to have shot down its own Russian plane near the Morozovsk military airfield in Rostov region. pic.twitter.com/nCTa7o7ELt
— Igor Sushko (@igorsushko) May 25, 2023
Russian Oil Refinery Hit by Drones
This refinery is located across the Kerch Strait from Crimea.
Drones have struck the Afipsky oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai, Russia. This is a major refinery that produces millions of tons of gasoline, diesel, and other petroleum products. It's located about 175 km from the Kerch Bridge which connects Russia to Russian-occupied Crimea. pic.twitter.com/TYDC1oBJcn
— Ukraine Reporter (@StateOfUkraine) May 31, 2023
The very moment of the drone attack on the Afipsky oil refinery in Russia's Krasnodar Krai pic.twitter.com/Ypw8CAsQPm
— Giorgi Revishvili (@revishvilig) May 31, 2023
Oil Pumping Station Hit by Drone Attacks
At about 5:30, two kamikaze drones attacked an oil pumping station in Russia's Pskov Oblast 450-500 km away from Ukraine, according to Russian authorities and mediahttps://t.co/FA1G1lhB70 pic.twitter.com/TteOHSsZbB
— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) May 27, 2023
What’s Next?
Based on what we see right now, this is how I would guess the operation will unfold. First, the extraordinary number of deep strikes into Zaporizhzhia, particularly the number using Storm Shadow cruise missiles, still convinces me that this will be the main focus of the offensive. I still think the main axis of attack will be Tokmak-Melitopol, with its objective to sever the rail and highway arteries that constitute the only significant means of supply for Russian troops in Occupied Kherson and Crimea. Second, I think the Ukrainians will ratchet up the pressure on at least one of the ongoing offensive actions, including the “invasion” of Russia, to force Russia to commit reserve troops. This will create the ideal opportunity for the main offensive.
This is not to say the Russians are without countermeasures. The destruction of the Kakhovka dam on Tuesday shut down one possible Ukrainian avenue of attack and allowed the Russians to transfer critical artillery, air defense, and electronic warfare assets to other areas. They are currently destroying minor dams in Zaporizhzhia to channel any attack onto well-defended strongpoints.
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