Putin's War, Week 100. Missing Prisoners, Hungary on the Hotspot, and Shell Hunger Returns

By streiff | 3:05 PM on January 25, 2024
The opinions expressed by contributors are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of RedState.com.
CREDIT: Iftikhar Alam via vecteezy.com

Welcome…

Two big stories are circulating about Putin's War in Ukraine. The first is the mystery of the downed Il-76 transport.

Russia accused Ukraine on Wednesday of deliberately shooting down a Russian military transport plane carrying 65 captured Ukrainian soldiers to a prisoner exchange in what it called a barbaric act of terrorism that had killed a total of 74 people.

The Russian defence ministry said six Russian crew members and three Russian soldiers had been on the Ilyushin Il-76 military transport plane shot down near the Russian city of Belgorod near the Ukrainian border.

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Both sides agree that a prisoner exchange was scheduled but did not happen. Beyond that, there are parallel universes.

The plane was shot down near Belgorod. The Russians claim the Ukrainians shot down the aircraft to sabotage future prisoner exchanges. There is no denial by the Ukrainians that they shot down the plane.

The Il-76 was a lawful target. Operating civilian aircraft in a combat zone is against international law, so anything flying over Belgorod is a potential target. If the plane had Ukrainian PWs onboard, Russia was required to notify Ukrainian authorities and establish a safe corridor. The Ukrainians say this didn't happen. There has been no evidence produced by either side of coordination. 

Shortly after the crash, Margarita Simonyan, editor-in-chief at RT, released a list of prisoners on the plane that she said was provided by the Russian Defense Ministry. The problem is that 17 of those prisoners had already been released.

The Russians have released video of the debris field. As many have pointed out, the MH-17 flight shot down by the Russians had many bodies available. If there were 74 people aboard, you'd think at least one body would be seen in Russian video of what is supposed to be a Ukrainian atrocity.

This was not a chance engagement. The Ukrainians knew aircraft were inbound to Belgorod and deployed a Patriot system close to the border to engage it. They have used this method in this same area once before.

 READ: Four Russian Aircraft Were Shot Down Over Russia in a Couple of Minutes and No One Is Giving Straight Answers

Former Ukrainian official Anton Gerashchenko has the best summary.

The second issue is US funding of Ukraine. While the issue is framed as a Ukraine funding issue, the same problem that limits the transfer of some weapons and munitions to Ukraine is also having the same effect on helping Israel and building up the Taiwanese military. The Red Sea mission headed by US Central Command is also running up against funding shortages.

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After the Tuesday Ukraine Contact Group meeting, Pentagon spokesman  USAF Brigadier General Pat Ryder gave this assessment.

 That has led to stories like this.

There are many unknowns in this picture. For instance, we don't know about multi-year contracts that were entered into last year and will continue. We know that Biden still has about $4 billion in Presidential Drawdown Authority. We know that the US has hundreds of thousands of rounds of 155mm DPICM scheduled for destruction, as well as a few thousand ATACMS with DPICM warheads that are also to be scrapped. That is all available should Biden decide to send it.

Reports this morning indicate that the grand bargain tying Ukraine funding to border security is dead.



READ: Mitch Rebuffed: McConnell Admits He's Lost Fight to Tie Ukraine Aid to Doing Biden's Bidding on Border

This means that the two issues will proceed on separate tracks at the direction of the Trump campaign. Supposedly, Trump wants to campaign in the general election on immigration, and that tells you that there is no desire to settle that issue. Welcome to Failure Theater 2024. If you'll recall, back in Week 95, I predicted the linkage of border security to Ukraine funding would not last.

READ: Putin's War, Week 95. The Russian Air Force Takes a Beating as Disease Rips Through the Russian Army – RedState

My assessment is that while there is a concern about funding, the effects are still months away as equipment and munitions are in the pipeline. Not all funding sources, like reprogramming appropriated funds, have been exhausted. Without the linkage of border security, I think the odds of a supplemental funding bill supporting Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan, and the increased operational tempo in the Red Sea have an excellent chance of rapid passage. To a certain extent, I think the press coverage of ammunition shortages — and we don't know these are factually true or if their cause if they are true — is calculated to push for passage of the supplemental funding. 

Here are some of my past updates. For all my Ukraine War coverage, click here.

Putin's War, Week 99. Not All Battlefields Are in Ukraine

Putin's War, Week 98.

Putin's War, Week 97. The Missile War Continues 

Putin's War, Week 96. Blowback From a Sunk Ship as Russia Launches Largest Missile Attack of the War 

Putin's War, Week 95. The Russian Air Force Takes a Beating as Disease Rips Through the Russian Army

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Putin's War, Week 94. Putin Makes Shocker AnnouncementUSnd the War in Washington Goes Into High Gear 

Putin's War, Week 93. General Winter Hits the Brakes, Offensive Postmortems and Funding Fights

Putin's War, Week 92. Ukraine Gets Its Own Divine Wind and With Friends Like China, Who Needs Enemies 

PutiUSWar, Week 91. Mud and Snow Beats Fire and Steel, and TumbleweeUS Are Blowing Through Sevastopol

Putin's War, Week 90. Grain Corridor Reopens and Russia Hints at Another Major Retreat 

Putin's War, Week 89. Zelensky Gets an EU Invitation, the EU Looks East and the Russians Have a Timetable

Politico-Strategic Level

Turkey Says Yes to Sweden in NATO, Hungary Appears to Balk

I posted on this last night. Even though Hungary had promised it would "not be the last" to vote on Sweden's accession into NATO, it is. I expect Orban to drag this drama out, but ultimately, he will have his parliamentary party vote in favor because he needs financial payments from the EU. When the smoke settles, Putin will have handed himself a massive strategic defeat by moving two previously neutral nations into an alliance that is now focused on stopping his ambitions.

READ: Turkey Signed Off on Sweden's NATO Membership, Hungary's Orban Is Dragging His Feet and No One Knows Why

Poland Joins G-7 Security Guarantees for Ukraine

The July G-7 summit created security guarantees for Ukraine to serve as a bridge until Ukraine achieves NATO membership. Over thirty nations have joined (I think the count is 32, but I can't easily verify that). Poland joined that group this week. Other countries are negotiating bilateral security assistance agreements. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak became the first to sign a bilateral agreement on January 12. Germany is in the negotiations process now.

BACKGROUND:

NATO Summit Highlights NATO Unity in Ukraine but Also Reveals Divisions

Putin's War, Week 74. The Crack in the Russian Wall Appears and Ben & Jerry's Employees Join the Russian Army 

Russian Rovince Beset by Riots

The Russian "republic" of Bashkortostan has been in the throes of riots for over a week. The cause was the imprisonment of four local activists campaigning to preserve Bashkir languarge and culture. This area has also been disproportionately affected by conscription and deaths in Ukraine. It's probably just a matter of time before the two grievances merge. In the meantime, it bears watching.

Russia's Recruiting Policy Looks to Animal House For Inspiration

For over a year, the Russian Army has been recruiting from the Russian prison system. The deal has been that if you enlist and survive a tour in Ukraine, you get a pardon. Not the rules have changed. According to BBC, the new rules are that you stay in Ukraine until the war's over.

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I wonder if the bureaucrats who came up with that idea were swilling vodka and watching this epic scene from Animalski Houski, or whatever Animal House is called in Russia.


Things That Make You Go Hmmm...

Operational Level

The front lines remained static. Both sides made small gains but nothing significant outside the local situation. Both sides continue with their game plan. The Russians launch a dozen or so attacks daily. They seem to have two operational objectives. First, they are trying to occupy the historical borders of Donbas. Second, they are trying to reduce the Avdiivka Salient. My view is that they are trying to lock in their 100% possession of Donetsk and Luhansk so that these can be credibly claimed to be Russian territory (SPOILER ALERT: it isn't). The Ukrainians continue to focus on the deep battle. They are targeting drone crews, artillery, air defense networks, logistics, and command and control nodes.

Long-range fires have dropped off on both sides. There were no major strikes against targets in Crimea, and the Russians have averaged about four missile strikes per day since their bacchanalia from December 29 through January 9, when they fired at least 294 cruise and ballistic missiles.

Drone Operators Targeted

Ukraine is stepping up its targeting of Russian drone operations. This is a logical outgrowth from the Ukrainian targeting artillery, air defense, radar, communications, logistics, and command and control rather than the front lines. A report I saw a few weeks ago claimed that the losses among drone operators to enemy counterfires approximated that of troops on the front line.

City Attacks Continue

Kharkiv and Odesa were hit by missile and drone attacks. These seem to have deliberately targeted civilian population centers.

Igor "Strelkov" Girkin Heads to Prison

Igor Girkin has been a fixture in the Russian invasion of Ukraine for a decade. He was a prime mover in the illegal annexation of Crimea and in fomenting the war in Donbas. Along the way, he picked up a conviction by the ICC for his role in the Russian-directed shootdown of Malaysia Air Flight 17 and the deaths of 298 people. Girkin

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READ: Dutch Court Convicts Three Former Russian Intelligence Officers of Murder in the Shootdown of Malaysia Air Flight 17

He became disenchanted with the invasion of Ukraine and was vocal about it on Telegram. The lesson here is that even being an enthusiastic and devoted Renfield doesn't protect you from the whims of your Dracula.

Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures

T-90 vs. Bradley: the Post-Fight Interview With the Winners

In the last two updates, I've had stories about the punch-up between a Russian T-90 main battle tank, called the "Breakthrough" by the Russians, and a US M-2 Bradley. 

This is an interview with the driver and TC/gunner of the winner.

The video game referred to at 0:52 is War Thunder, a technically accurate online armor combat game in which top-secret documents have been shared in its online forum.

Dismounted Infantry at Work

This is a video that shows a noticeable improvement in Ukrainian tactics. It shows a pair of Dutch-manufactured YPR-765 infantry fighting vehicles — think a US M-113 with a turret and 25mm autocannon mounted on it — attacking a Russian trench in northern Donetsk. 

The two IFVs lay down covering fire as the infantry dismounts. Note they chose the left flank of a Russian trench line as their objective. Covering fire continues as the infantry maneuvers on the end of the trench, some laying down a base of fire and others entering the trench. They use grenades to clear the entry point (1:06 mark) and begin clearing the trench. The two IFVs clear out, probably out of fear of FPV suicide drones. From what we've seen in the past, the Ukrainian infantry probably cleared a section of trench and retreated back to friendly lines before Russian fires and a counterattack can arrive.

Russian Assault Near Avdiivka Repelled By Drones

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Northern Front

Combat continues all along the line of contact. Generally, the Russians are attacking prepared Ukrainian positions and being turned back. 

Kharkiv

Kupiansk

Donbas

Bahkmut-Klishchiivka-Andriivka

The Russians made minor progress northwest of Bakhmut. Attacks continue along the entire front in this area.

Avdiivka

The Russian Army continues to attack the Avdiivka Salient. The focus of Russian attacks is the shoulders of the salient in the vicinity of Stepove and Sieverne, but there are attacks directed at Avdiivka. The lines here remain unchanged.

Russian Training Facility Hit

Ukrainian fires hit a Russian training facility about 40 miles behind the lines. According to reports, about 20 Russian soldiers were killed. This is at extreme range for any currently deployed Ukrainian rocket or artillery system.

Southern Front

Like on the Northern Front, combat continues but without significant gains by either side.

Zaporizhzhia

The combat tempo in this area is much lower than in past weeks, and the lines remain largely static with some minor Ukrainian gains.

Robotyne-Verbove- Novoprokopivka

Kherson

The focus of the fighting continues to be the Ukrainian bridgehead at Krynky. The lines appear to be static.

Rear Areas

Russia

Petrochemical Plant Near St. Petersburg Hit By Drone Attack

Military Facility in Tula Hit By Drone Strike

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This industrial complex produces Pantsir surface-to-air missile systems and modernizes tanks and infantry fighting vehicles.

Black Sea Oil Refinery Struck By Drones

What's Next

I think we're about five weeks away from the ground war resuming in earnest. Then, we'll get a better sense of each side's intentions. Russia's attacks in Donbas will probably continue, but I think the fighting in Kupiansk will return to a low roar. The Russian mini-counteroffensive around Robotyne appears to have come to an end, and the Ukrainians will likely regain the small amount of ground they lost.

The major focus of the next phase is the funding fight in Washington. The EU seems to be sorting out its lack of preparedness, and while it probably can't provide the volume of munitions the US can, it can keep Ukraine in the war. 

As I've said before, I think the school of thought that sees 2024 as a statemate year is misguided. Zelensky knows this war is very much the Napoleonic maxim, "The moral is to the physical as three to one." To keep the EU and US engaged, Ukraine has to show it is doing something. The Russians, though, I think, will hunker down and try to wait out the West's attention span, particularly with a US election coming up.


Streiff

Former infantry officer, CGSC grad and Army Operations Center alumnus. Also an amateur historian (Colonial America) and a dabbler in historical fiction.
RedState member since 2004. "He would rather pinch off his own head than admit he's wrong" -- Daily Kos. Follow me on Twitter. 

Read more by Streiff
Tags: RUSSIA UKRAINE PUTIN'S WAR

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