Putin's War, Week 94. Putin Makes Shocker Announcement and the War in Washington Goes Into High Gear

By streiff | 9:45 AM on December 15, 2023
The opinions expressed by contributors are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of RedState.com.
AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite

Here we are, thundering up on 100 weeks of a war that no one, least of all Vladimir "Pootie-Poot" Putin, thought would last more than a week.

The political realm of this war is still at center stage. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was in Washington this week to make his case to Congress. I think the result was that he made a favorable impression on the members who support helping Ukraine keep its independence and a negative one on those who favor Russia having a client state. The good news for Zelensky is that the GOP linking Ukraine aid to border security is just failure theater. Not even a majority of the House GOP will fight for it.

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The same people are calling for negotiations, which actually means Ukrainian surrender, as all of them are saying Ukraine will have to give up territory so it can give Russia a breather before the next round of fighting. 

Despite what I continue to read in our comments section, Europe is stepping up in providing military assistance and gives much more economic and humanitarian aid than the United States. I think the real powers in Europe, like Germany, France, the UK, and Poland, have decided they don't want to live next to a victorious Vladimir Putin, and more aid from them will be forthcoming. Apparently, the lesson we learned from Afghanistan was that it's okay to put our national prestige on the line in a war, lose interest, and walk away. If things go pear-shaped in Ukraine, it won't be Joe Biden who is to blame.

Here are some of my past updates. For all my Ukraine War coverage, click here.

Putin's War, Week 93. General Winter Hits the Brakes, Offensive Postmortems and Funding Fights

Putin's War, Week 92. Ukraine Gets Its Own Divine Wind and With Friends Like China, Who Needs Enemies 

Putin's War, Week 91. Mud and Snow Beats Fire and Steel, and Tumbleweeds Are Blowing Through Sevastopol

Putin's War, Week 90. Grain Corridor Reopens and Russia Hints at Another Major Retreat 

Putin's War, Week 89. Zelensky Gets an EU Invitation, the EU Looks East and the Russians Have a Timetable

Putin's War, Week 88. Zelensky Is Blindsided by TIME Magazine and the Offensive Gets a Postmortem 

Putin's War, Week 87. The Battlefield Shifts to Washington and Brussels

Putin's War, Week 86. The Very Resistible Force Meets the Immovable Object in Donbas

Putin's War, Week 85. The Curtain Goes Down on the Ukrainian Offensive and Russia Rolls for a Hard Six

Putin's War, Week 84. Slovakia Stops Ukraine Aid as the Spring Offensive Nears Culminating Point

Putin's War, Week 83. Zelensky Gets ATACMS From Biden and a Cold Shoulder From McCarthy

Many more are available at this link.

Politico-Strategic Level

National Defense Authorization Act Goes to the White House

The NDAA is headed to the Whtie House for Joe Biden's signature, assuming he's up to the task; see my colleague Ward Clark's post on this House of Representatives Sends National Defense Authorization to President Biden's Desk. The bill includes $300 million for Ukraine Security Assistance. There is ~$4.2 billion remaining in the Presidential Drawdown Authority to assist Ukraine. In addition, the president can transfer any military items he deems "excess" to Ukraine without cost. If Biden decided to do so, those fields of tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, and armored personnel carriers could be donated.


There is no doubt that there will be fights in Congress over Ukraine funding, but the fact remains that the White House supports it, as do supermajorities in the House and Senate.

Putin Announces Candidacy for Fifth Term

I know this is a shocker,  but Russian President Vladimir Putin has announced he will run for an unprecedented fifth term as president. The election is in March, and I'm sure it will be a nail-biter.

Putin's Assessment

Our troops are becoming more and more competent, this is obvious.  Our industry is gaining momentum.  We began to produce many times more.  I know that we still lack something.  But the enemy is running out of things, they don’t have their own base.  When there is no own base, no own ideology, no own industry, no own money, no own nothing, then there is no future.  And we have it.  Happy holiday to you!

This has the same depth as a lot of remarks in our comments section. Russia is reliant upon North Korea for ammunition. Ukraine is only beginning to produce significant quantities of artillery, but at least 14 nations are providing Ukraine with artillery ammunition.

In 2024, this statement will not be true as Germany's available production will exceed Korea's.

The German machine tools that Russian industry relies on are breaking down because spare parts are unavailable. As I've documented, Ukraine is bringing online production facilities for tanks and armored personnel carriers, and their artillery production is increasing. Unlike the Russians, the Ukrainians have a process for recovering damaged vehicles and moving them to repair depots. 

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While the skirmishing over Ukraine aid has a lot of media attention in the US, there are supermajorities in both chambers of Congress in favor. That aid will resume once the GOP finishes with its bout of failure theater on border security so the fundraising emails can be sent out.

Zelensky Confronts Orban; Orban Caves

Hungary's Viktor Orban is the sole holdout in started accession talks that would result in Ukraine joining the EU. Last week, Orban objected to the talks, describing Ukraine as nearly as corrupt as Russia; sorry, I meant to say, “one of the most corrupt countries in the world.” At Sunday's inauguration of Argentina's new president, Javier Milei (Javier Milei Takes Office in Argentina, and His First Move Immediately Triggers All the Right People), where Zelensky was the guest of honor, Zelensky was seated beside Orban and had the chance to confront him publicly.

 

The discussion focused on Orban's less-than-helpful approach to a lot of issues of concern to other European countries.

I've been somewhat sympathetic to Orban in the past (Viktor Orban's Election Is Not a Win for Putin or a Loss for Zelensky and NATO, It Is a Win for Hungary), but his toadying to Moscow in opposing aid to Ukraine, as well as refusing to act on Swedish accession NATO, is leading me to believe that Hungary has as much place in NATO and the EU as Turkey.

When push came to shove in Friday, Orban elected not to veto accession talks for Ukraine and Moldova; he left the room.

Sweden's Commander in Chief Visits the Front

General Micael Bydén, Commander of Sweden's Armed Forces, visited the front lines in Ukraine. Sweden has provided the formidable CV-90 infantry fighting vehicle (Putin's War, Week 48. The Logjam Breaks and the Leopards Are About to Roam the Ukrainian Landscape) and world-class Archer 155mm self-propelled howitzer (Putin's War, Week 64. Patriots Score Big and the Scene Is Set for Offensive Action); it is also opening a factory in Ukraine to produce the CV-90 (Putin's War, Week 78. Prigozhin Crashes, Two Russian Bomber Bases and Moscow Hit by Drones). As far as I know, this is the first visit by a foreign general to within artillery range of Russian lines.

Hacker vs. Hacker

Monday, Ukrainian hackers penetrated the Russian equivalent of the IRS, harvested tax information, and started releasing it for public viewing.

Tuesday, Kyivstar, one of Ukraine's major cellular phone services with 25 million customers, was hacked. Service is being gradually restored, but it is still limited. One of the side effects of this was the disabling of missile attack warnings to customers. Whether this hacking attack was coordinated with the Russian missile attack on Kiev, or it was just a coincidence, is unknown.

Cyberattacks have been a part of this war since the first day; at this point, I think it is fair to say that Russian hackers have underperformed international expectations.

Yawn: Another Red Line

F-16 fighters will be operational in Ukraine by March. One of the steady talking points among Russia's backers is that these aircraft won't make a difference. And yet, Russian foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova was out warning the West that Russia will attack these aircraft wherever they are found. 

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Most of Ukraine's airfields are not damaged. There is no more need to base these aircraft outside Ukraine than there is to base current Ukrainian Air Force aircraft outside that country. That said, no one believes that Russia has the ability to do anything about it if they were. We've already seen that Russian pilots are barely qualified to keep their aircraft aloft, Patriot missiles and other Western surface-to-air missiles are more than capable of defeating Russian missiles or aircraft, and the Russian Air Force has not shown it has the skills to strike into Poland or Slovakia. 

About the Lies

For reasons I can't come up with an honorable explanation for, Tucker Carlson continues to peddle lies about the war in Ukraine. I say lies because errors would cut in both directions. Tucker's don't. They only serve to push Russian propaganda. He has mainstreamed retired Colonel Douglas Macgregor, perhaps one of the most odious Putin catchfarts not named Jackson Hinkle. If you recall, in August 2023, he predicted the war would end in a Russian victory by October.

Carlson has also continued to push the debunked narrative that Ukraine is shutting down Christian churches because Russia, as you well know, is the only defender of religious liberty in the world. The truth is a lot less exciting. Ukraine has expelled some clergy of the Moscow-based Orthodox Church of Ukraine, who were preaching collaboration with the Russian invaders, and allowed state property it occupied to be taken over by the Kiev-based Ukrainian Orthodox Church. It is the same religious denomination, but its clergy aren't Moscow's stooges. See Putin's War, Week 61. Xi Calls, Prigozhin Sounds El Degüello, and Surprise Attacks at Sevastopol, Kherson, and (Maybe) St. Petersburg. At least three Moscow-oriented churches still operate in Kharkiv; the same applies to other Ukrainian cities. Read the thread.

On the other hand, Russia has banned the Ukrainian Orthodox Church and...crickets.

His newest cause is Gonzalo Lira, a Putin-fluffing US-Chilean dual national who is married to a Ukrainian woman and living in Ukraine.

Lira made pro-Russian videos from his apartment in Kharkiv. He was arrested for showing videos of Ukrainian military positions. He was released on bail. He tried to flee the country. He was re-arrested. He has not been "imprisoned for five years." He is in pre-trial confinement, and his detention hearing is scheduled for this month. Being a skeevy pro-Putin former "dating coach"  — all of Lira's videos were, as improbable as your eyes may tell you,  in the "pick up artist" genre until the Russians invaded Ukraine — does not get you the immunity idol when you are living in a country at war with Russia. I covered his story some weeks ago in Putin's War, Week 63. Chechens Replace Wagner in Bakhmut, Storm Shadow Arrives, and Russia Says 'Family Guy' Is a Meany-Pants. This is the best single resource on the man.

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There are Americans imprisoned in a lot of countries for no particular reason; Lira is not one of them. Why Carlson would champion this sh**bag is a mystery.

While we're at it, failed GOP senatorial candidate and former (we hope) meth and heroin user Lauren Witzke is claiming that President Zelensky has bought a $20 million mansion in Vero Beach, FL. Flordia real estate records show it belongs to an Atlanta banker. But all that is important is the lie because some people will believe it, and many people who don't believe it will still spread it to further their support of Russia.

We Have a Solution for That

A few weeks ago, I posted on Russia trying to destabilize Finland by moving "refugees" through Russia to Finnish border crossings; see Finland Shuts Border Crossings to Stem Wave of Illegal Immigration Originating in Russia. As a result, Finland closed most of its border crossings with Russia, leaving the "refugees" marooned. The Russians, ever resourceful, came up with an inspired solution: draft them into the Russian Army.

I Understand That You're Upset...

The backstory to this video is not clear. The video captures a meeting of the Keretskovsky city council in Zakarpattia Oblast, near the Hungarian and Slovak borders. Apparently, the man entering the room at the beginning of the video is a city council member engaged in some sort of dispute with his colleagues. 

Operational Level

Missile Attack on Kiev

Wednesday, Russian missiles slammed into a residential area of Kiev. This is simply an extension of the terror attacks Russia has used for nearly two years to try to demoralize the Ukrainian people.

Russia Prepares New Fortification Belt

Russia is rapidly building fortifications around the Sea of Azov port of Mariupol. 


Needless to say, you don't build fortifications if you are planning a major offensive operation. They are an economy of force option, freeing up troops for activity elsewhere or a signal that they will soon be on the front line. I think there is a hint here that Russia knows it can't continue to hold the extensive frontline it currently does.

New Weapons

New Shahed Drone

The Iranian-designed and manufactured Shahed drones have become a mainstay of Russia's terror campaign against Ukrainian cities and civilian infrastructure. The Shaheds have striking power, but their real advantage is that they allow Russia to map Ukrainian radar and anti-aircraft coverage, and a swarm of Shaheds preceding a cruise missile attack can catch the defending missile sites while they are reloading. 

However, the influx of gun-based anti-aircraft systems to Ukraine has reduced Shahed to the status of skeet. Ukrainian air defenses routinely shoot down 90 percent-plus of the Shaheds launched. Now, Russia is fielding a new model of Shahed with higher speed but with shorter range and a smaller payload.

The good news for Ukraine is that lightly defended areas deep behind the frontlines that Shahed attacks had hit are now much safer. It remains to be seen if the increased speed increases survivability.

New Unmanned Surface Vessel

The Russians are announcing the deployment of a new class of unmanned surface vessel.

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As Ukraine doesn't have an operational navy, it would seem that this vessel will be used to try to regain Russian control in the southern Black Sea from which it has been evicted and target the Ukraine grain trade.

Combat Operations

Russian Air Strike

This is a Russian Su-34 strike fighter using 1,000-lb parachute retarded bombs. The date and location is unknown.

A Loaf of Bread, a Jug of Wine, and...You

For nearly two years, I've posted stories on the criminal activity of the elite in the current Russian Army, the Chechen "Akhmat Kadyrovites." They act as barrier troops to prevent regular Russian troops from retreating, and their role in rear area security allows them to engage in robbery and murder. At the same time, their political connection gives them impunity.

This is not the first such story reported in Russian media about Chechens leaving the sheep alone for a short while as they gang rape a fellow Russian soldier.

There have been several reports of Russians and Chechens carrying out combat operations against each other. As the supply situation worsens, we can expect increased tensions between those forces.

Not a Nuke But Getting Close

This is a Russian anti-tank mine dump hit by (I'm guessing, based on the range to Ukrainian lines) a HIMARS rocket.

You can see the airburst at 0:06, followed by the secondary explosion. The wall of compressed air forms at 0:09, dissipating by 0:10. Behind that luminous wall of air is a fraction of a second of total vacuum. If you are inside that blast wall, your hollow organs are ruptured, and you are dead.

Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures

Drone vs Drone

I've posted a couple of videos of drones used to attack other drones. This is a logical outgrowth of the proliferation of these systems. The airplane entered World War I with a mission of reconnaissance. It wasn't long until pilots were packing heat and trying to maneuver above opposing aircraft so their observers could drop bricks on them. 

This video is a branch of that trend. What it shows is that resupplying troops on the front lines via unmanned ground vehicles is happening, and FPV suicide drones are attacking those UGVs. The next stage is increasing the size of the UGV so it can carry some type of anti-drone system.

Drone Attack

This is bodycam video from a Russian soldier whose unit is under an FPV drone attack. Please play the video, because if you don't, this segment won't make sense, and now I know that a lot of you don't play the video (see comments in Did the Almighty Just Intervene to Shut Up This Islamist Windbag?),

It calls to mind the effect Stukas created with their "Jericho trumpets."

Big Sky, Little Bullet

One of the unheralded jobs in a brigade or division operations center is deconflicting the routes jets and helicopters will use to attack a target, and the routes of aircraft of all types and artillery and rocket fire. My Forward Air Controller used to scoff at the whole idea of attack pilots worrying about incoming artillery; he thought it was pretty ridiculous. Whenever I went to get his sign-off of a deconfliction plan, he'd say, "Whatever, big sky, little bullet." In fairness, I've never read of an attacking aircraft being shot down by incoming artillery. That said, until writing this update, I'd never considered the possibility of an aircraft being shot down by outgoing artillery. Here, we have a Russian Su-25 pilot testing out the "big sky, little bullet" theory by flying through an outgoing BM-21 rocket barrage.

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Logistics Failure

There used to be a sign outside the office of the XVIII Airborne Corps G-4 (logistics officer) that read, "The Corps will not advance beyond a line drawn by the Corps G-4." The point was simple: logistics is the determinant of battlefield success. Just like the old saying in the Army that "amateurs talk tactics, professionals talk logistics."

This video has a lot of messages packed into just a few seconds.

No tentage. No sleeping bag. No tools to dig in with are available. And no water. This guy is at the point where he has zero f***s left to give; he doesn't care if he lives or dies. And neither does his chain of command.

The real tell here is eating snow. Eating snow for hydration is a no-no because it hastens hypothermia. If you're without water, fill your canteen with snow, put it inside your clothes, and let the naturally expended body heat melt it. Given the field hygiene we've seen from the Russian Army (and, quite honestly, I don't know that it is any better on the Ukrainian side), if that soldier has been in the area for a week, the ground is probably a carpet of sh**.

If the logistics system can't (or won't) move forward the equipment needed to sustain the men on the front line, like cold weather gear and water, it probably doesn't do very much well.

 


Northern Front

Kharkiv

Kupiansk

For the most part, the Kupiansk area is stable. There are reports of Russian "reservists" deploying to the area, but given their training and equipment status, that will be a double-edged sword. Yes, they can provide a meat-wall and try to take some ground, but they have to be fed and supplied with ammunition and food...well, maybe not food. Come to think of it, ammunition is also optional.

A localized Ukrainian counterattack at Synkivka is showing some results at the moment. It is uncertain whether it is an attempt to retake territory or another raid to create attrition.

This is one of the Russian attacks on Synkivka.

This is a scene from the ongoing counterattack where Ukrainian troops capture trenches and take prisoners.

Donbas

The Donbas area continues to be the focus of Russian operations. We've been told for a few weeks that the Russian high command wants to gift Vladimir Putin something that vaguely looks like a victory in Donbas by January 1. The Ukrainians have given up small amounts of ground, but the Russians have paid dearly for their gains.

Bahkmut-Klishchiivka-Andriivka

The main Russian effort in this operational area is Klishchiivka. The objective seems to be to push the Ukrainians back to the line that existed when the Spring Offensive started. There has been some success here, but the weather and the topography say that little of substance will be accomplished.


Avdiivka

Fighting continues at a fairly intense level without much progress by the Russians. The operational concept remains the same. Hammer blows at the end of the salient at Avdiivka are combined with attacks on the shoulders of the salient in the north (Stepove) and south (Sieverne).

This is what the ground in front of Ukrainian positions at the "coke plant," the scene of repeated Russian attacks, looks like. The soldiers are all Russian.

This short video shows how the frontline has changed since October 10, when the Russians started an all-out effort to reduce this salient.

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Southern Front

As with the rest of the front, the lines here remain stable.

Zaporizhzhia

Robotyne-Verbove- Novoprokopivka;

The Russians are concentrating their attack on the Ichenkove-Robotyne axis, as this still represents a dangerous threat to Tokmak, Melitopol, and the Crimean land bridge.

The fighting is brutal. In this video, Russian troops drive three Ukrainian PWs ahead of them as they advance. When they come under fire, they retreat.

Kherson

Ukrainian troops continue to make incremental gains on the left bank of the Dnieper. The Russians have been unable to achieve the mass necessary to stop the advance or push it back despite the Ukrainians still relying on boats for resupply. I still think this is an economy of force operation conceived to freeze Russian units in place. By establishing air dominance over the battlespace (see my discussion of this from last week, Putin's War, Week 93. General Winter Hits the Brakes, Offensive Postmortems and Funding Fights), Russian forces attempting to reinforce the front are heavily attritted by Ukrainian drones and artillery. 

There is an unconfirmed report from Russian sources that the Russians have employed CS gas in combat. This is against the Geneva Conventions (CS can be used for riot control purposes, but it is not legal for use in combat) and, if substantiated, could constitute a war crime, depending on the circumstances. Of course, these are the Russians, so it's not likely that international law will have much of an effect on the situation.


What's Next

Based on the available information, I don't anticipate any further large-scale offensive action by either side until after the first of the year. In the area around Bakhmut and Avdiivka, the Russian operational concept resembles a cat and a laser pointer. On the Ukrainian side, I think the Spring Offensive broke a lot of Ukrainian commanders, and they need to be replaced with men with sufficient imagination and adaptability to fight the war that is, not the war they wish they had.


Streiff

Former infantry officer, CGSC grad and Army Operations Center alumnus. Also an amateur historian (Colonial America) and a dabbler in historical fiction.
RedState member since 2004. "He would rather pinch off his own head than admit he's wrong" -- Daily Kos. Follow me on Twitter. 

Read more by Streiff
Tags: RUSSIA UKRAINE PUTIN'S WAR

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