Let me preface this by saying that I am not a lawyer (IANAL), I’ve never tried a case (though my mom was a huge Perry Mason fan), and I think Paul Manafort’s goose is cooked because he’s being tried in a jurisdiction hostile to Trump and to Republicans and because he’s guilty. Having said that, if the jury does have a true belief that the prosecution must prove its case beyond a reasonable doubt, I think they are in trouble after yesterday’s testimony by their star witness, Paul Manafort’s own Benedict Arnold, Rick Gates.

Back in February, Gates entered a guilty plea on charges of tax evasion, violation of the Foreign Agents Registration Act, and for lying to investigators while he was trying to give testimony required by his plea agreement. This last should have sent signal flares into the ionosphere for the prosecution.

I’m going to rely on a series of tweets that have images from the actual trial transcript:

Transcript on the cross-examination of the Special Counsel's star witness Rick Gates in the Paul Manafort case.

How much did he embezzle?

How many lies did he tell the Special Counsel during their investigation?

Thread. pic.twitter.com/NSQKKzuHLT

— Techno Fog (@Techno_Fog) August 8, 2018

Before cross-examination began, there was a bench discussion. Manafort's lawyer said he would get into how Gates stole money to fund his "secret life."

There was an agreement that they wouldn't bring up Gates' infidelity. pic.twitter.com/nNxpfomy5c

— Techno Fog (@Techno_Fog) August 8, 2018

However, they were going to imply how he stole the money to finance his "separate secret life."

The special counsel didn't object to that. pic.twitter.com/Fgm70arCSm

— Techno Fog (@Techno_Fog) August 8, 2018

Defense: "Do you recall when you first started giving false and misleading information to the Office of the Special Counsel?"

Gates avoids directly answering the question – indicating how he was coached by the Special Counsel. pic.twitter.com/TQaX7r3Los

— Techno Fog (@Techno_Fog) August 8, 2018

Manafort's lawyer persists, and here we catch Rick Gates in his first lie:

"I didn't provide false and misleading information to the Special Counsel's office."

Their star witness just committed perjury. pic.twitter.com/StPpnVSUC7

— Techno Fog (@Techno_Fog) August 8, 2018

Defense: If you didn't lie, then why did you plead guilty to providing false information?

Gates backtracks: "Under one instance I did."

Judge Ellis calls Gates out: "Well, so previously, you said you didn't provide false information." pic.twitter.com/TonvdT7Ukg

— Techno Fog (@Techno_Fog) August 8, 2018

Now Gates is blaming his "bad recollection" on why he pleaded guilty to lying to the Special Counsel. pic.twitter.com/53nqDOQ4vD

— Techno Fog (@Techno_Fog) August 8, 2018

The patience of Judge Ellis is wearing thin.

Judge: "You just said you just had a bad memory. Did you provide false information or did you have just a bad memory?"

Gates: "Your Honor, I provided false information to the Special Counsel prior to my plea agreement." pic.twitter.com/TRmnOZ158P

— Techno Fog (@Techno_Fog) August 8, 2018

Who confronted Gates about his lies?

The equally crooked Andrew Weissmann. The Special Counsel was in a bind and had to charge their witness with lying or they'd lose all credibility with the jury. pic.twitter.com/ANbLMKQj16

— Techno Fog (@Techno_Fog) August 8, 2018

Remember Gates blaming his memory on why he was charged with lying to the Special Counsel?

Manafort's lawyer now gets him to admit that he "knowingly and intentionally lied." pic.twitter.com/maj8z9U2LI

— Techno Fog (@Techno_Fog) August 8, 2018

Now, this part was a bit muddled, but Manafort's lawyer is getting to the point that he thinks Gates embezzled $350,000 from a Cyproit account for an investment deal. pic.twitter.com/DZy5gc8fdx

— Techno Fog (@Techno_Fog) August 8, 2018

Gates now "can't recall" telling the Special Counsel about unauthorized transactions from the Cyproit accounts.

He can't pick out the transactions he told the Special Counsel were authorized.

But he had a perfect memory when questioned by the Special Counsel during direct. pic.twitter.com/YHBzUDY5Ov

— Techno Fog (@Techno_Fog) August 8, 2018

Defense: Did you perpetrate a scheme to take money from offshore accounts?

Gates: "It wasn't a scheme. I just added expense numbers to the reports."

The jury must have been rolling their eyes at this point. pic.twitter.com/1XsvaX14JB

— Techno Fog (@Techno_Fog) August 8, 2018

Manafort's lawyer brings up how Gates would falsify expense reports to pay off his AmEx.

Defense: "That included substantial personal expenditures?"

Gates avoids answering yet again: "Yes, that's possible." pic.twitter.com/RUsgzaHqMT

— Techno Fog (@Techno_Fog) August 8, 2018

Defense: Was that the $125K you stole from a SunTrust account?

Gates: "I don't know what you're referring to."

Did the Special Counsel question you about closing the SunTrust account?

Gates: "I don't recall"

This guy has ZERO credibility. pic.twitter.com/d9UMVVAFSO

— Techno Fog (@Techno_Fog) August 8, 2018

Manafort's lawyer has the notes from the Special Counsel's interviews with Gates. It seems like Weissmann caught Gates in another lie, this time about the SunTrust account.

Conveniently, Gates can't recall being confronted by Weissmann. pic.twitter.com/yxKyrxBSey

— Techno Fog (@Techno_Fog) August 8, 2018

Now Gates is asked if he orchestrated a scheme to steal from Trump's inaugural committee.

He can't recall what he told the Special Counsel about that, either. pic.twitter.com/z4hCfo7Tfu

— Techno Fog (@Techno_Fog) August 8, 2018

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills – Gates keeps contradicting himself.

Here he switches from "I don't recall" to "it's possible" when asked about submitting expenses to the inaugural committee. pic.twitter.com/Dqu7bBHxah

— Techno Fog (@Techno_Fog) August 8, 2018

Gates denies embezzling money to pay for his "secret life" that was mentioned in the bench discussion at the start of this thread.

Another lie. pic.twitter.com/Fi4iQPjBc1

— Techno Fog (@Techno_Fog) August 8, 2018

Whoa.

Rick Gates was helping run a Ponzi scheme – and falsifying financial documents – separate from his work with Manafort? pic.twitter.com/ndHeuWSYaz

— Techno Fog (@Techno_Fog) August 8, 2018

The Special Counsel confronted Gates with potential fraud charges in that business venture.. all of which would go away if he cooperated. pic.twitter.com/Ml2mucQ5cf

— Techno Fog (@Techno_Fog) August 8, 2018

Yet more crimes/financial violations. It goes on and on. This time for insider trading with a company called "ID Watchdog" on the eve of an IPO. pic.twitter.com/WR3nJmT0mR

— Techno Fog (@Techno_Fog) August 8, 2018

Manafort's lawyers moves on to Gates' false tax returns.

Gates can't recall being confronted with leaving off "well over $1 million" on his amended return.

He can't recall if it was a large number. He can't recall "what it related to." pic.twitter.com/WOl2RnmO8B

— Techno Fog (@Techno_Fog) August 8, 2018

This is interesting. Gates is asked about being interviewed about his time with the Trump campaign.

The Special Counsel objects. The next 6 pages are sealed. No idea what happened. (But the next line of questioning has to do with 2010 wire transfers) pic.twitter.com/xjLNJordQ7

— Techno Fog (@Techno_Fog) August 8, 2018

Here we see exactly how Gates embezzled money.

In this example, Gates falsified multiple documents to steal $65,000 from Manafort. pic.twitter.com/NwqfTPmego

— Techno Fog (@Techno_Fog) August 8, 2018

Next: how Gates stole $120,000 by creating "a false and phony invoice" pic.twitter.com/rgGgjPHNBV

— Techno Fog (@Techno_Fog) August 8, 2018

This (verbatim) interaction is good…

Defense: Why won't you say "embezzlement"?

Gates: What difference does it make?

Defense: Why won't you say "embezzlement"?

Gates: It was embezzlement from Mr. Manafort. pic.twitter.com/OjcnbqF5iW

— Techno Fog (@Techno_Fog) August 8, 2018

Meanwhile, the Special Counsel pipes up and gets smacked down.

Special Counsel: "Judge, could we have questions and answers as opposed to a discussion here?"

Judge: "I don't see that as an objection. I'll overrule it." pic.twitter.com/NqzipTz1yW

— Techno Fog (@Techno_Fog) August 8, 2018

This line of questioning is important – there is no paper trial. It's a question of whether the jury believes Gates.

"This jury is supposed to just believe you; is that correct?"

"Yes, they are." pic.twitter.com/4FmHukkWO0

— Techno Fog (@Techno_Fog) August 8, 2018

Now Manafort's lawyer goes for blood.

Defense: After all the lies you told and fraud you've committed, you expect this jury to believe you?

Gates: Yes.

Defense: Uncorroborated?

Gates: Yes. pic.twitter.com/5IOleZAaRl

— Techno Fog (@Techno_Fog) August 8, 2018

Defense: Can you return the money you stole from Manafort?

Gates: No, I cannot.

Defense: So you're really not taking responsibility, are you?

Gates: On that subject, no.

— Techno Fog (@Techno_Fog) August 8, 2018

Last set of questioning before the day wrapped up.

Gates: "Mr. Manafort was very good about knowing where the money is and knowing where to spend it."

Judge Ellis: "Well, he missed the amounts of money you stole from him, though, didn't he?"

/end pic.twitter.com/Z2a2D3twUJ

— Techno Fog (@Techno_Fog) August 8, 2018

As I said, no matter what presumption a jury is supposed to have, the very fact that you are on trial leads most folks to believe that you’ve done something because otherwise you wouldn’t have been arrested. That said, Gates, who had a perfect memory under direct questioning from the prosecution on Monday…even though that didn’t go all that well…

Did Judge Ellis make the Special Counsel lawyer cry???

Judge: "There's tears in your eyes right now."

Govt: "There are not tears in my eyes, Judge."

Judge: "Well, they're watery." pic.twitter.com/gXCIEqjgUC

— Techno Fog (@Techno_Fog) August 7, 2018

can’t remember much besides his name when under cross-examination. He’s also forced to admit to numerous embezzlements of Manafort and others. And he has to admit that he was caught in a lie by prosecutors while trying to negotiate a plea deal and he is caught in a lie on the stand. More to the point, it is clear that the only evidence of Manafort’s involvement in all of the schemes is Gates’s uncorroborated testimony.

All I'm saying is that if my star witness copped on the stand to stealing at least six figures from the guy I'm trying to prosecute to keep a mistress in a nice London flat, I'd want to be so drunk tonight that that Wictor guy makes sense.

— (((≠))) (@ThomasHCrown) August 7, 2018

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