Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., speaks during an event at the University of Chicago’s Ida Noyes Hall in Chicago on Tuesday, April 22, 2014. (AP Photo/Andrew A. Nelles)

Ever since the announcement of Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination to fill the rather small seat being left on the Supreme Court by the retirement of Justice Anthony Kennedy, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul has been conflicted in his public statements about how he will vote. There was no doubt Paul was probably going to vote for Kavanaugh because he’s not a Susan Collins or Jeff Flake who’d knife his caucus just for grins. On the other hand, Kavanaugh’s vote to allow the NSA to collect the metadata from phone calls without a warrant was a potential stumbling block.

Now Paul has announced his support of the nomination:

After meeting Judge Kavanaugh and reviewing his record, I have decided to support his nomination. No one will ever completely agree with a nominee (unless of course, you are the nominee). Each nominee however, must be judged on the totality of their views character and opinions.

— Senator Rand Paul (@RandPaul) July 30, 2018

I have expressed my concern over Judge Kavanaugh’s record on warrantless bulk collection of data and how that might apply to very important privacy cases before the Supreme Court.

— Senator Rand Paul (@RandPaul) July 30, 2018

In reviewing his record on other privacy cases like Jones, and through my conversation with him, I have hope that in light of the new precedent in Carpenter v. United States, Judge Kavanaugh will be more open to a Fourth Amendment that protects digital records and property.

— Senator Rand Paul (@RandPaul) July 30, 2018

Of course, my vote is not a single-issue vote, and much of my reading and conversation has been in trying to figure out exactly how good Judge Kavanaugh will be on other issues before the Court.

— Senator Rand Paul (@RandPaul) July 30, 2018

My conversation with Judge Kavanaugh reinforces my belief that he will evaluate cases before the Supreme Court from a textual and originalist point of view. I believe he will carefully adhere to the Constitution and will take his job to protect individual liberty seriously.

— Senator Rand Paul (@RandPaul) July 30, 2018

On issues such as property rights and reining in the administrative state, Judge Kavanaugh has a strong record and showed a deep commitment during our meeting.

— Senator Rand Paul (@RandPaul) July 30, 2018

His views on due process and mens rea show a thoughtful approach to the law and its applications. His views on war powers and separation of powers are encouraging.

— Senator Rand Paul (@RandPaul) July 30, 2018

Finally, his strong defenses of the First and Second Amendments in landmark cases show someone who isn’t afraid to challenge the status quo and will fight with backbone. Judge Kavanaugh will have my support and my vote to confirm him to the Supreme Court.

— Senator Rand Paul (@RandPaul) July 30, 2018

This is making Kavanaugh confirmation seem more and more a foregone conclusion. The consensus opinion is that the campaign to put pressure on Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski is not having much of an impact making them much more likely to vote in favor. John McCain probably won’t vote thereby losing an opportunity to say “screw you” to the GOP once again. Manchin will be a yes. There is a better than even chance Heitkamp, Donnelly, Jones, and McCaskill–at a minimum–cross the aisle to vote in favor. The fact that Chuck Schumer is not whipping the vote in his caucus shows that he thinks the danger of losing Red State Democrats in November outweighs the threat of a Justice Kavanaugh.