New polling data is casting doubt on the Democrat strategy of powering through the Jay Jones scandal in Virginia. According to Trafalgar, not only is the embattled candidate for attorney general now losing by a significant margin, but the other two top-of-the-ticket races are also now dead heat, shaking up an election that was once assumed to be all but over.
In the race for governor, Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) is only leading current Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R) by two points, a stark turnaround for what had long been the least competitive race of the three. Meanwhile, John Reid (R) has pulled into a tie with State Sen. Ghazala Hashi (D) in the lieutenant governor contest.
The largest shift has come in the attorney general race, though. Jay Jones, who was once consistently several points ahead, is now trailing by nearly five points.
NEW VIRGINIA POLL
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 16, 2025
GOV
🟦 Spanberger: 47.5%
🟥 Earle-Sears 45.3%
🟨 Charles: 0.8%
⬜ Not sure: 6.4%
—
AG
🟥 Jason Miyares: 49.5%
🟦 Jay Jones: 44.6%
⬜ Not sure: 5.9%
—
LG
🟦 Ghazala Hashmi: 46.2%
🟥 John Reid: 46.1%
⬜ Not sure: 7.7%
——
• Trafalgar Group & Insider Advantage…
Like all pollsters, Trafalgar's history isn't perfect, but going back to the 2021 Virginia election, the outfit absolutely nailed the outcomes. That includes calling current Gov. Glenn Youngkin's surprise victory within a fraction of a percent. So this isn't something Democrats have the luxury of ignoring. In fact, this trajectory looks eerily similar to what we saw the last time around. Democrats were essentially coasting until various scandals, including Terry McAullife's support for allowing boys into girls' locker rooms, blew the races wide open, leading to a Republican sweep.
In this case, Spanberger has repeatedly dodged the question of protecting children from the predations of "transgender" ideology in schools. Meanwhile, Jones remains embroiled after texts leaked showing him not only wishing to shoot a Republican opponent in the head, but also wishing that the Republican's two children would die as well. Further, in a later phone conversation with the same recipient, he reportedly called for the deaths of police officers as a way of supporting the Black Lives Matter movement.
SEE: Things Go From Bad to Worse for Virginia Democrat Jay Jones
It feels like panic time for Democrats. I'm not going to predict they lose all three races because a blue state like Virginia is always a tough row for Republicans, but it's clear things have shifted dramatically. Whether that's enough to get Earle-Sears, Reid, and Miyares over the finish line will depend on how much the early vote that came in before these scandals factors in, and if Republicans overperform on election day as they did in 2021. Still, the GOP has to be very happy that they are even in the position to pull out victories, and with money now pouring in to make a final push, it's clear they see an opening.
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