In a surprise move, Rep. Lauren Boebert announced on Wednesday evening via Facebook that she will not be running for re-election in Colorado's third congressional district. 

The controversial congresswoman was facing an uphill re-election battle and has instead decided to run in the fourth district, which is on the other side of the state. She's no shoo-in to be the general election candidate there either, with a very crowded primary field awaiting her arrival on the scene. 

U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert announced Wednesday night that she is ditching her reelection bid next year in Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District to run instead in the state’s 4th Congressional District, which is on the other side of the state and is far more favorable to Republicans. 

Boebert won by just 546 votes last year in the 3rd District, which spans Colorado’s Western Slope into Pueblo and southeastern Colorado. The 4th District is anchored in Douglas County and includes Loveland and the state’s rural Eastern Plains. 

The 3rd District leans 9 percentage points in Republicans’ favor while the 4th District leans 27 points toward the GOP, according to a nonpartisan analysis of election results from 2016 to 2020 by staffers for the Colorado legislature. Boebert doesn’t have to live in the 4th District to represent it.

The fourth district is currently held by Rep. Ken Buck, who is retiring. Buck is one of the more moderate members of the Republican caucus, and while the district itself should deliver a Republican victory in the general, Boebert has to get there first. How palatable she'll be to an electorate that has been sending someone like Buck to Washington is a very open question. 

I've written on Boebert's predicament in the past, noting at the time that if she didn't straighten up and fly right, she was going to lose re-election. I guess I can say I was right given she's preemptively surrendering and looking to greener pastures. The fundamentals were against her in district three after she narrowly defeated Adam Frisch in 2022 (the margin was around 500 votes) and then proceeded to make herself even less popular. 

That's not a commentary on Boebert, who I know many Republicans like. It's simply a commentary on the reality of the situation she found herself in. It'll be very interesting to see how she does in the primary in district four and what kind of resources are marshaled for and against her. No doubt, Donald Trump will endorse her, but will it matter in a district with that makeup? We'll see. 

As to the broader electoral implications, there is an argument that Boebert is helping the GOP by making this move, as cynical as it may be on her part (she essentially admits in the video she is moving to better her chances of remaining in power). By allowing a fresh face to run in district three, Republicans will have a better-than-even chance of holding the seat now. That wasn't true as long as Boebert remained in place.

Was there some backroom dealing going on in that respect? I don't know, but it's possible that this decision could be the difference in keeping or losing the House majority.