I've been feeling over the past month that we may have been in what I would call the "Seltzer Zone," i.e., watching polls that may be way off.
Now, CNN senior data analyst Harry Enten is echoing a similar thought, at least when it comes to some critical Senate races in Iowa, Ohio, and Michigan.
As he explained, in all three states, the Republicans did better by 5+ points in 2024 than the polls had them at this point.
Dems have had a lot of very good polls from Iowa, Mich & Ohio.
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) September 30, 2026
But are polls underestimating the GOP again? In all 3 states, GOP did better by 5+ pt in 2024 than polls had at this point.
Same thing in Trump's 1st midterm.
Same happens in 2026? GOP probably holds the Senate. pic.twitter.com/NZYxhGyRgd
Republicans did better than the September polls were predicting in Iowa by 9, Ohio by 6, and Michigan by 5 in 2024. Now the kicker to that is that the leads that the Democrats have right now are all under that 5 percent. So if the Republicans outperform again as they have in the past, then Democrats should be very fearful of what might come. "We've seen this dance before," Enten explained. "And it was not a dance that Democrats liked when the votes were actually cast and counted."
Well, maybe that was because President Donald Trump was on the ballot in 2024?
No, because it wasn't just in 2024; it was also true in 2018, during Trump's first midterm. Again, Republicans outperformed by over 5, with Iowa 6, Ohio 6, and Michigan 8. So that should be very instructive in a similar midterm year.
That outperformance by at least 5 points for those states was also true in 2016, 2018, and 2020.
As Enten notes, if that principle held for this election, they would hold those three states. Then even if the Democrats picked up other states like Texas, Alaska, Georgia, and North Carolina, for example, Enten said there was a very good chance the Republicans would still hold the Senate.
Now obviously, that's no guarantee. But it is instructive. And it isn't only Enten saying things like this.
In that analysis, Echelon pollster Patrick Ruffini noted that 3,312 polls had, on average, overestimated Democrats by 3.7 points over the past four election cycles. During the summer, the error rate was about 5.9 percentage points.
Plus, while there have been some good polls for the Democrats, there have also been some good polls for the Republicans, for example, showing the Republicans ahead in Iowa or Michigan.
What this does show is that one shouldn't be disheartened by the polls or take them as gospel; in fact, if this history bears out, things may be more positive than the polls would show. There's a heck of a lot of precedent to consider them off now; it's something we've seen again and again. I have a tendency, because of that, to read a tie or a Democrat ahead by 1 or 2 as good news for Republicans.
In the past week, I think I'm also seeing more GOP energy and galvanizing of the vote, with people realizing how much is at stake and getting more serious about getting out to vote, so that's good.
Bottom line? There are reasons to feel positive, but the only way to make it happen is by getting out and voting, and bringing everyone who will vote right along with you.
Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must maintain control of both chambers of Congress.
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