Energy costs are at the heart of every economy, and the United States right now is no exception. A major factor in energy costs is the price of gasoline and diesel fuel. Every consumer depends on these fuels, whether they like it or not, and gasoline prices in particular can lead to some serious economic calculations among American consumers: Where to go on vacation, where to buy groceries, whether or not to accept a job on the far side of a metro area, and many, many more small everyday considerations.
In short, high gas prices are damaging to any state's economy. And nowhere are gasoline prices higher than in Democrat-dominated states. There are several reasons for this, not least among them excessive taxation. The Democrats have become a fundamentally anti-energy party, in part because they are bending the knee to the climate scolds, and in part because the Democrat Party has never seen a tax increase that didn't give them a collective (hah) warm, fuzzy feeling.
A report published in July by the Institute for Energy Research has crunched the numbers, and they are interesting.
In early 2026, states with unified Democratic control (the governorship plus both legislative chambers) averaged $3.69 per gallon, while unified Republican states averaged $3.14 per gallon, a gap of $0.55 per gallon. Averaged over our full 2017–2026 data window, the gap is about $0.45 per gallon.
But the headline gap is not the whole story, and a careful look at the data tells a more useful one. Most of the gap is traceable to identifiable policies and supply geography: state gasoline taxes, West Coast fuel regulations, and the region’s hostility to refineries. Those policies were built up over decades, and the recent acceleration in West Coast prices lines up with specific policy and refinery events in 2022 and 2023. This brief summarizes the findings.
The numbers are stark; California's prices are particularly damaging to what's left of the once-Golden State's economy. Here are the Institute for Energy Research's key findings. Let's look at them one by one.
- In 2026, gasoline is $0.55 per gallon more expensive in unified-Democratic states than in unified-Republican states ($3.69 vs. $3.14). Over 2017–2026, the gap averaged about $0.45.
This is damaging enough in itself without going too deep into the reasons. Gasoline prices are strangling Californians in particular, but this is a blue-state problem and, more so, a West Coast problem.
- About two-thirds of the gap is explained by four measurable factors: state gasoline taxes, the West Coast refining region, California-specific fuel costs, and federal reformulated-gasoline rules. A statistically significant residual of about $0.13 per gallon remains.
- State gasoline taxes are the single largest policy lever: about 89 cents of every dollar of state gas tax shows up at the pump, and Democratic-controlled states tax fuel more heavily.
Taxes, then, are a big part of the problem. Democratic-controlled states, we might note, tax everything more heavily. This is causing an ever-increasing number of people to use their remaining gasoline budgets to pack up and move to friendlier states, especially if they are productive people. The non-productive, of course, are happy to stay where they are, in the blue states, lured by the usual Democrat promises of more of other people's resources.
But there's more. In recent years, the increases in gasoline prices in blue states have accelerated.
- Over the past five years, prices rose by $0.86 per gallon in Democratic states versus $0.62 in Republican states. Most of that difference comes from just four states: California, Hawaii, Washington, and Oregon. Excluding them, the gap shrinks from $0.24 to $0.09.
Three of these four states, remember, have not only high gasoline taxes but also onerous carbon-tax schemes. And they are making a big difference as well.
- The sharp widening of the West Coast price premium is recent, not geographic destiny: after accounting for taxes and other factors, the premium ran $0.20–$0.44 per gallon from 2017 to 2021, then roughly doubled in 2022 and reached $0.91 by 2026—timing that matches new carbon-pricing programs and the loss of West Coast refining capacity.
- The gap reflects decades of accumulated policy, not necessarily who holds office today. A state’s cumulative years of Democratic control since 2001 predict its 2026 prices better than its current party control does.
In summary: Gasoline prices in Democrat-dominated states are brutally high, almost entirely because of Democrat propensities for taxation and regulation.
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We knew all this, but it's interesting to see the numbers put forth rather clinically, like this report does. There are other factors, of course. The report by the Institute for Energy Research noted my own Alaska as a high-cost state, and here in the Great Land that's mostly due to a lack of refining capacity. We send oil to the Lower 48 (and elsewhere) in tankers, and we get tankers of gasoline and diesel fuel back, which is why it costs me almost $200 to fill my pickup with diesel fuel. But that's not a problem that can be resolved easily or quickly.
The problem the nation's blue states and cities face with gasoline prices, however, can be resolved a little more easily by the people of those states: Stop voting for Democrats. Fuel prices are at the heart of everything in any jurisdiction's economy, and Democrat policies, as we see very plainly, are jacking those prices higher and higher at an accelerating pace.
This is not an issue Republicans should leave lying on the table in what is shaping up to be a very, very contentious and consequential midterm election.
