After eight nights of pounding by American forces, Iran is reeling. They've managed a few counterattacks, most notably a missile and drone attack on Jordan that cost the lives of (we now know) three American service members. But the beating they are taking is all out of proportion to what they are dishing out.
Now there's an indication that the biggest rats may be leaving this sinking ship. There are reports from an "Israeli security source," quoted in the Times of Israel, that the so-called Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, may have left Iran, destination unknown.
An Israeli security source cited by the Saudi al-Hadath outlet on Sunday said Iranian leader Mojtaba Khamenei “is not in Iran.”
Khamenei, who was appointed supreme leader shortly after his father was killed in US-Israeli strikes on February 28, which sparked the war, has only communicated via written statements since, and has made no public appearances.
The source told al-Hadath that Khamenei’s messages are written by the new Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps chief Ahmad Vahidi, and other members of the IRGC.
“Iran’s internal divisions are deep and threaten the existence of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps,” the source was cited as saying.
Interestingly, the anonymous Israeli security source revealed the information to al-Hadath, a Saudi television network, rather than through an Israeli or American network.
There's another report that may enter into it, if the younger Khamenei has in fact left Iran. Another source within Iran is indicating that the Islamic Republic may not have found and plugged the security leak that led to the death of the elder Khamenei, the previous Supreme Leader.
Separately, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Sunday that an intelligence breach that allowed Israel to assassinate the senior Khamenei has likely not been patched.
In a Persian-language interview, Araghchi said that he told President Masoud Pezeshkian on the morning of February 28 that “the atmosphere is war.” He said that he then met with Khamenei aide Ali Asghar Mir Hijazi at 9 a.m., shortly after which Israel carried out the deadly attack on a Tehran compound where Khamenei was having a high-level meeting.
This may reveal why the new Supreme Leader has not been seen or heard from since Day One of the fracas.
Fox News has also carried the report.
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If this is true - assuming that Mojtaba Khamenei is even still breathing, which assumes facts not in evidence - then it speaks eloquently to the utter mess that Iran's leadership is in right now. A guy like this doesn't just up and flee the country unless there is a perceived danger that his tenure among the breathing is seriously threatened should he remain in place. There are places that the Supreme Leader might go that share a land border with Iran, most notably Afghanistan, where the goblins among the Taliban might make him welcome; then again, they might not, depending on what that cabal of 7th-century barbarians might think is in their best interest. Or, the younger Khamenei may flee to Russia, where some regime figures were rumored to have fled some time ago. Vladimir Putin may well take him in just as a way of sticking his thumb in the eyes of Israel and the United States.
Bear in mind that this is very sketchy information at this point. The continued existence of Mojtaba Khamenei among the corporate, for that matter, is pretty sketchy. But, if there's anything to this... How interesting. How very interesting indeed.
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