China is definitely rattling some sabers at Taiwan. On Monday, the Chinese Eastern Theater Command launched a massive "training exercise" that completely surrounded Taiwan with Chinese ships and aircraft. All of this is in the wake of some historic U.S. arms sales to Taiwan.
That is, as you might expect, causing some furrowed brows in Taipei.
China on Monday launched its largest military exercises ever around Taiwan, surrounding the island with warships, aircraft and live-fire drills as tensions spiked following a record U.S. arms sale to Taipei.
The drills, known as "Justice Mission 2025," involve coordinated deployments of ground forces, naval vessels, fighter jets, drones and artillery across seven maritime zones encircling Taiwan.
China’s Eastern Theater Command said the exercises include simulated strikes on land and sea targets and rehearsals to blockade Taiwan’s main ports, a scenario analysts say would be central to any attempt to isolate or coerce the island.
In other words, the exercises planned are precisely the kind of operations that the Middle Kingdom would rehearse if it really wanted to attack Taiwan. That's unsettling, but then, China has done this kind of posturing before, just not quite on this scale.
Also, note the name of the exercise: "Justice Mission 2025." Whenever a leftist, be they a Chinese Communist or an American liberal, uses the word "justice" as a preface to anything, you can be sure it's just the opposite of justice that they have in mind.
Live-fire exercises are scheduled to continue through Tuesday, with China designating large danger zones for artillery firing closer to Taiwan than in any previous round of drills. The scope of the operation has already disrupted civilian air and sea traffic, forcing airlines to reroute flights and Taiwan’s aviation authority to plan alternative airspace corridors.
Chinese military officials defended the exercises as a response to separatism and foreign involvement. "It is a stern warning against ‘Taiwan independence’ separatist forces and external interference forces, and it is a legitimate and necessary action to safeguard China’s sovereignty and national unity," Senior Col. Shi Yi, spokesperson of China’s People’s Liberation Army’s Eastern Theater Command, said.
Taiwan is, of course, no threat whatsoever to China's sovereignty and national unity, except in the sense that China still considers Taiwan to be a breakaway rogue province, one that should eventually be re-annexed.
China is committing significant forces to whatever this is, and they are operating in close proximity to Taiwan's forces.
As the drills unfolded, Taiwan’s Defense Ministry said 89 Chinese military aircraft, 14 naval vessels and 14 coast guard ships were operating around the island, with additional warships spotted farther out in the Western Pacific. Some Chinese vessels were engaged in close stand-offs with Taiwanese ships near the island’s contiguous zone, about 24 nautical miles from shore.
This could easily go wrong, and quickly. Chinese forces are conducting live-fire exercises, with Taiwan's ships and aircraft in the area. One errant missile, or even a few cannon shells, and suddenly it's slash-and-snap time in the Taiwan Strait.
However, that doesn't seem likely. China is almost certainly playing the same game they have been playing with Taiwan for years now: Push, prod, intimidate. But Taipei hasn't shown much of any tendency to be intimidated; they have just made a major purchase of American weapons systems that will make them even less likely to cower to Chinese pressure.
Still, it's an interesting day in the West Pacific, and Tokyo and Manila are no doubt watching developments as well.
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