New Poll: AOC Wins Over Schumer in Devastating Primary - but There's One Flaw

An interesting tidbit surfaced on Sunday from a Honan Strategy Group poll on the New York 2028 Senate race. Chuck Schumer, despite being old enough to require carbon dating to determine his date of birth, plans to run for re-election to his Senate seat again. But there are murmurings of primary challenges, not least of which is coming from the firebrand former bartender from the Bronx, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

There's a problem with the poll, though, that may well scotch AOC's chances, should she decide to challenge Schumer: note that it only sampled voters in New York City.

“Squad” member Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez would trounce Sen. Chuck Schumer in a primary – as the Democratic leader is “bleeding support” from his party and Jewish voters, a stunning new poll found.
Socialist Ocasio-Cortez leads five-term incumbent Schumer by a 54%-33% among likely Democratic voters in the Big Apple, according to the poll conducted by Honan Strategy Group for the Jewish Voters Action Network.
AOC, 35, who now services as a member of the House of Representatives, leads Schumer among Jewish Democrats 45%-33% with 17% undecided, the poll found.

It's a rather glaring omission; the Senatorial election is a state-wide contest. This survey only hit the city. New York City is a constituency that's unlike much of the rest of the state; it's unclear as to whether AOC could shellack Schumer with enough of a margin to cancel out the rest of the state, where voters may be more hostile to a self-professed "Democratic Socialist."

Nevertheless, there's a reason for Senator Schumer to be worried.

“This is a massive wake-up call for Schumer,” said Maury Litwack, co-founder of Jewish Voters Action Network. “He’s not only bleeding support in the Democratic Party overall but also in the Jewish community.”
The numbers are troublesome for Schumer, who is Jewish and has relied on Jewish voters as a key area of support in his 50-year political career. The 74-year-old Senate minority leader isn’t up for reelection until 2028.
Litwack said the poll results are likely more of a reflection of dissatisfaction with Schumer than support for AOC, a member of the Democratic Socialists of America — a group that supports the controversial boycott, divestment and sanctions movement against Israel.

Are there any moderate Democrats left in New York? Because this might be an opportunity.

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Why a moderate Democrat and not a Republican? Well, here's why, and I'm going to tell you; it seems unlikely that, given the preponderance of Democrat voters in the Big Apple, a Republican could overcome that built-in advantage for the Democrats. By then, with the primaries over, whoever emerges as the Democratic candidate will have that party pretty much aligned behind them. So, of course, would the Republican - we hope - but New York is still a pretty blue state. The last Republican Senator from New York was Alfonse D'Amato, who lost his 1998 re-election to - yes, Chuck Schumer. The former Senator is 87 now, and it seems unlikely he'd want to try to take his old seat back.

But in the primaries? New York may well go for AOC, should she run. Senator Schumer appears to be bleeding support. But if there was a more moderate Democrat, one who might appeal to moderate-to-conservative voters outside the city, he or she (sorry, Democrats, those are the only options) may be able to split the ticket and walk away with enough to clinch the nomination. That is, if there are any moderate Democrats left in New York.

But then, an AOC nomination for Senator may well throw this race to a decent Republican candidate who can find enough support in just opposing one of the farthest-left American political figures since Gus Hall. The Democrats, in recent elections, have been failing to embrace the one idea that might help them to stop losing: "Don't be a nut." And AOC is a nut.

All this is a long way off, of course. The 2028 elections are still well over three years away, and that's an eternity in politics. But speculation is always fun - and seeing Sandy Cortez lose an election and getting sent home to the Bronx would be roundly satisfying.

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