On Saturday, the Trump administration conducted a high-precision operation that captured Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela’s narco-terrorist dictator, and his wife, Cilia Flores, to face criminal charges.
This is part of the administration’s revival of the Monroe Doctrine to reassert American dominance in the Western Hemisphere, with the objective of ensuring the homeland’s security, free from foreign influence and coercion.
.@POTUS: "It's about PEACE on Earth. We gotta have peace. It's our hemisphere. The Monroe Doctrine was very important when it was done, and other Presidents — a lot of them — they lost sight of it. I didn't. I didn't lose sight." pic.twitter.com/CzDyUdqvzO
— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) January 5, 2026
The capture of Maduro presents a significant strategic setback in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) and a financial headache for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), after Beijing had released a lengthy white paper in December 2025 detailing plans to increase engagement in the region. It reveals a lot about China, too.
But ultimately, how all this affects Beijing in the long run will depend on what happens next in Venezuela.
Implications for China
Venezuela has come to play a central role in China’s Belt and Road Initiative and military ambitions in LAC.
Beijing and Caracas upgraded bilateral relations to an “all-weather comprehensive strategic partnership” in 2023. Hugo Chávez, Maduro’s predecessor, had signed numerous trade agreements with Beijing in 2006, describing the budding relationship with China as a “Great Wall” to American hegemony.
China has loaned more than $60 billion to Venezuela to fund various projects over the years. China is Venezuela’s most important creditor and the top buyer of its oil, accounting for about 80 percent of the South American country’s oil exports, and consequently, Venezuela became China’s top debtor in Latin America. Venezuela currently owes China between $13 and $15 billion primarily under a loans-for-oil arrangement.
After Operation Absolute Resolve, the future of Venezuela’s outstanding debt to China is uncertain. It’s possible that Beijing will never see that $13-15 billion repaid, which isn’t great news for its ailing economy.
China is also the world’s leading oil importer. Venezuelan crude accounted for close to seven percent of Chinese oil imports in October 2025 (Beijing tends to obscure the origin of sanctioned oil). Exports to China were expected to increase.
This operation and the ongoing oil quarantine are a blow to China’s energy supplies; Beijing is left with one less alternative. Oil shipments from Venezuela to China are at a standstill.
Chinese teapot refineries, accounting for roughly a quarter of the country’s refining capacity, have become increasingly reliant on Venezuelan oil and are set to be affected.
Iran, another source of China’s oil, seems to be on the brink of collapse.
Collapse could also be on the horizon for the Castro regime, which has been dealing with fuel shortages and blackouts. This is bad for China from a strategic standpoint, as Cuba is a major beachhead for the CCP in the region. At the end of last year, the Chinese military simulated battles around Cuba as part of a wargaming exercise.
Beijing currently operates spy bases across the island. If the Castro regime were to fall, the CCP would likely lose those facilities.
President Trump had something to say about Cuba as well:
.@POTUS on Cuba: "I think it's just going to fall. I don't think we need any action. It looks like it's going down — it's going down for the count. You ever watch a fight? They go down for the count, and Cuba looks like it's going down." pic.twitter.com/IJ7gsX16JC
— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) January 5, 2026
Operation Absolute Resolve’s Message to Beijing and What It Reveals About Beijing
Hours before the operation, Maduro met with a high-level Chinese delegation to sign hundreds of bilateral agreements reaffirming their partnership. The delegation was reportedly in Caracas during the capture.
The timing was not a coincidence. It sent a clear message to Xi about U.S. military capabilities and Washington’s resolve to defend its interests in LAC and beyond. It’s another proverbial nail in the coffin of the narrative that President Trump is a staunch non-interventionist or isolationist.
Wu Xinbo, dean of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, had the following to say:
The United States took such action at a time when China's delegation was visiting Venezuela. For China, it is very embarrassing.
Rather than setting a dangerous precedent, as left-wing outlets and politicians are claiming, Operation Absolute Resolve acted as a reminder to Beijing of the swift consequences it could face if it were to launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan. Taiwanese officials view the mission as “a powerful deterrent to Chinese aggression.”
Let’s face it, the CCP never has and never will adhere to international law, and it will set its own precedents and create its own narratives, regardless of our actions.
The failure of Venezuela’s Chinese-made JY-27A radar system, long touted by Beijing as one of the most capable radar systems in Latin America, to detect American aircraft exposed how unreliable Chinese weapons are. It also reaffirmed to the world that American military equipment and might remain unmatched. Chances are that in the coming days, CCP officials will be asking questions about what other Chinese military equipment might not perform as intended.
It must be noted that China failed to intervene on Maduro’s behalf, just as it took no action to protect Iran during Operation Midnight Hammer in June 2025. This goes to show how dysfunctional the axis is and how limited China’s leverage and capabilities are. America’s adversaries are great at saber-rattling, but when push comes to shove, they aren’t there to defend one another.
This doesn’t mean these countries don’t pose a substantial national security threat, though. They absolutely do. They find other ways to work together to persistently undermine the free world and support each other’s causes.
Venezuela’s Future
What happens next in Venezuela is yet to be seen. The Trump administration has a plan, and hopefully, everything goes according to that plan — American control of the oil and an eventual regime transition. Stability.
The Trump administration said that Delcy Rodriguez, the interim president, is cooperating. In a Truth Social post on Tuesday, President Trump announced that Caracas would be turning over tens of millions of barrels of sanctioned, heavy crude oil to the U.S. Over what timeframe this will occur is still unclear.
— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) January 6, 2026
On Wednesday, President Trump announced that Venezuela will purchase only American products using the revenue from the 30 to 50 million barrels of oil.
— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) January 7, 2026
However, Rodriguez can’t be trusted. She — along with Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello — is a fervent Chavista. Look who was at her swearing-in ceremony.
Chinese, Russian, and Iranian ambassadors were among the first to congratulate Delcy Rodríguez as she was sworn in today as Venezuela’s acting president.
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) January 5, 2026
All three ambassadors stood side by side during the ceremony. pic.twitter.com/0JkhHfhgow
President Trump has alluded to consequences, possibly another operation, if Rodriguez and Cabello choose not to cooperate. Or perhaps the U.S. military will be deployed to secure oil sites, if need be.
.@PressSec: “The President, of course, reserves the right to use the United States military if necessary. It's not something he wants to do. Diplomacy is always the first option. As you saw he tried that with Nicolas Maduro but unfortunately he was an illegitimate dictator and an… pic.twitter.com/nXzdCsTY9R
— Department of State (@StateDept) January 7, 2026
There are many other bad actors that will have to be dealt with: Cuban military and intelligence personnel, Hezbollah, colectivos (pro-Maduro paramilitary groups that are targeting anyone suspected of supporting the U.S.), Venezuelan cartels, a loyal military, and Colombian drug networks and insurgents.
Remnants of the Maduro regime could splinter, plunging the country into civil conflict involving guerrilla warfare. This would destabilize the region even further. Beijing would benefit from prolonging such a conflict; it always profits from instability.
Also, beware of the Chinese government’s efforts to divide the Venezuelan opposition, just like how the CCP uses its political warfare tactics to try to divide American society on practically every issue imaginable. Relating to Maduro’s capture, CCP front groups are already hard at work in cities across the U.S.
My intention isn’t to instill fear. I’m merely outlining plausible scenarios. As the saying goes: “Hope for the best but prepare for the worst.”
Editor's Note: The mainstream media continues to deflect, gaslight, spin, and lie.
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