A new poll from Marist gauging voter sentiment ahead of next year's midterm elections has some not-so-welcome news for Republicans: voters are not currently vibing with the GOP. In fact, according to the poll, Republicans lag a whopping 14 percent behind Democrats on the generic ballot, with 55 percent of voters saying they'd support the Democrat candidate if the congressional elections were held today.
All the standard disclaimers apply here – it's just one poll, it could be an outlier, it's too soon to tell, there's plenty of time left to change things, polls are stupid – but the results shouldn't be dismissed out of hand. There's actually some good stuff in there that could help Republicans refine their messaging as the election cycle ramps up.
Marist poll | 11/10-11/13
— Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 (@PollTracker2024) November 19, 2025
Generic congressional ballot 2026 (RV)
🟦Democratic 55%
🟥Republican 41%
—
President Trump approval (RV)
Disapprove 57%
Approve 40%
—
President Trump approve (Adults)
Disapprove 56%
Approve 39%https://t.co/Ue9UTXMKaw
It's important to note that this poll of 1,291 registered voters was conducted during the time period of November 10 through November 13 – otherwise known as the waning days of the Schumer Shutdown – so the blame game around that very likely played into voter sentiment and possibly skewed the overall results. The poll itself showed that 39 percent of respondents blamed Democrats for the shutdown, with 34 percent placing the blame on President Trump and the other 26 percent on congressional Republicans.
READ MORE: The GOP Needs a ‘Strategery’ to Boost Its Voters’ Turnout for 2026
Democrats Think They Have Their 2026 'Boogeyman' – and It's Not Donald Trump
Those results track pretty well with surveys taken during the shutdown showing that Republicans were shouldering most of the blame, even though the party's lawmakers consistently voted to keep the government open.
Poll shows Democrats with biggest generic ballot lead since 2017 https://t.co/gDljpyl1px
— Axios (@axios) November 19, 2025
Another pain point for Republicans, at least according to this particular poll, is President Trump's low approval rating, which sits at 40 percent and is apparently the lowest of his second term. Crucially, only 24 percent of independent voters approve of his performance.
What does this mean for Republicans running for office in 2026? The answer is found in voter feedback on the issues driving their vote as they look to next year's elections:
- Lowering prices: 57%
- Controlling immigration: 16%
- Reducing crime: 9%
- Ending the war between Ukraine and Russia: 7%
- Maintaining peace between Israel and Gaza: 6%
- Eliminating drug traffic from Latin America: 4%
James Carville has always been right: it's the economy, stupid. Americans vote with their pocketbooks. Notably, 62 percent of independents indicate that lower prices should be the issue for the Trump administration. And that means it needs to the issue for anyone hoping to win in 2026.
Mike Marinella, spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee, doesn't seemed concerned by the poll results and told one media outlet that "[c]herry-picked polls don't win races." He added, "House Republicans are on offense, smashing Democrats in fundraising, recruiting stronger candidates, and delivering real solutions."
The good news here is that voters are making their priorities clear to candidates, and candidates have plenty of time to refine and act on their messaging. As the GOP's redistricting efforts play out in the courts, the party would do well to, as RedState's own Susie Moore wrote in her Wednesday Morning Minute, to keep their eye on the prize.
Republicans know they're going to have to fight tooth and nail to hang onto the congressional majority in 2026, so I'm hoping they refocus their efforts on shoring up their "safe" districts and finding, vetting, and running good, quality candidates (across the board), while pushing policies that are going to help the economy prosper and voters feel like they're getting ahead of the "affordability" curve.
In other words, don't get so distracted by all the strategery and intrigue that you forget to deliver and give voters a reason to support your candidates. Focus on winning the races you're actually running.
It's not time to hit the panic button yet, but Republicans would be wise to treat this as a wake-up call and get serious about meeting voters where they are.
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