Just In: Winner Declared in Virginia Governor's Race

Polls haven't been closed in Virginia for long, but Decision Desk HQ has called governor's race for Abigail Spanberger. Spanberger beat out current Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears to become the state's first female governor.

The race between Earle-Sears and Spanberger was a contentious one. Spanberger spent much of the campaign avoiding answering questions about hot-button issues like boys participating in girls' sports and men using women's spaces like bathrooms and locker rooms. Earle-Sears leaned into those issues and appeared at several school board meetings in the Northern Virginia area (including the now-infamous one in Arlington County where a leftist woman held up a rabidly racist sign).

RELATED: Obama Stumps for Spanberger at Event - but the Big Problem Is Who Else Is There

Something's Missing From Abigail Spanberger's New Campaign Bus

Spanberger ended the race with former President Barack Obama hitting the campaign trail to tell Virginia's voters. Notably, President Donald Trump did not officially endorse Earle-Sears, although he did post generally supportive messages for the GOP ticket on Truth Social and held two tele-townhalls for Virginia voters over the past week.

RedState's Adam Turner did a comprehensive, pre-election analysis of the Earle-Sears vs. Spanberger matchup:

The RCP average has Spanberger up 50.7 percent to 43.1 percent, which is pretty much unchanged from last we checked.  Spanberger is over 50 percent , which is not a good sign.

We also know the following:

1. Abigail Spanberger is not a good candidate, but Winsome Earle-Sears has been criticized as well.
2. Virginia has become a Democrat leaning state thanks to the growth of the federal government.  However, state campaigns can be a different beast (see above).
3. The prior history of Virginia shows that the incumbent president’s party (almost) always loses the off-off year elections for governor, except in 2013 when the Democrats heavily outspent the GOP and gamed the race by propping up a conservative leaning independent.
4. For most of the campaign, the Democrats were heavily outspending the GOP. 
5. However, “(a)ccording to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact, the Earle-Sears campaign is currently set to vastly outspend Spanberger on the airwaves in the final stretch of the campaign… The Republican Governors Association’s Right Direction PAC also poured $4 million into Earle-Sears’s campaign on October 28.”
6. The final ad from Earle-Sears ties Spanberger to her Attorney General ticket mate, who has been rocked by scandals (see below).
7. I think it is a stretch to believe that ticket-mate scandals would substantially affect the governor’s race.  
8. If any state shows a backlash to the GOP for the government shutdown, federal government worker-heavy Virginia will be that state.  
9. Spanberger’s campaign has her campaigning in rural GOP heavy areas, which is usually a sign of confidence.

All eyes had been on the Virginia elections, and those in New Jersey, as the off-year races could be a preview of the big midterm elections in 2026. This is unlikely to be true in the case of Virginia since its populous northern counties have been overrun the last few decades by progressives who are employed by the Federal government. 

Inauguration Day in Virginia will be Saturday, January 17, 2026.

Editor’s Note: The Schumer Shutdown is here. Rather than put the American people first, Chuck Schumer and the radical Democrats forced a government shutdown for healthcare for illegals. They own this.

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