2025’s Big 3 Elections – Final Analysis/Predictions Before Nov. 4

Well, the big three (plus two) 2025 elections are about to end on Nov. 4, and it is time for my complicated-but-definitely-deadeye-accurate model predictions about the results.   

New Jersey Governor

In New Jersey, Democrat Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill is squaring off against Republican former state legislator Jack Ciattarelli.

The RCP average is 48.9 percent to 45.6 percent in favor of Sherrill, a 3.3 percent advantage, down from the 4.1 percent gap before. Importantly, several particularly good pollsters, including Atlas, Quantus, and Trafalgar, and others show a one- to-two-point race.  

We also know the following:

1. Mikie Sherrill is a poor candidate.
2. The fundamentals seem to favor Jack Ciattarelli.
3. Two respected pollsters think the race is "closing fast" in favor of Ciattarelli.
4. Democrat Gov. Phil Murphy is often polling worse then President Trump, especially in the better polls.
5. As a state race, rather than a federal one, the Democrat edge in the state will be muted.
6. The GOP is gaining registration.  
7. As the “out” party in the state, the GOP should pick up a majority or a plurality of the remaining undecided voters, with many other voters just not voting.  
8. Sherrill has spent $16.6 million and has $4.1 million left, while Ciattarelli has spent $16.4 million and has left $3.5 million. Meanwhile, the assorted party and independent allies are funneling another $70-plus million into the race, with “panicking” Democrat allies giving Sherrill a $42.4 million to $29.9 million edge. Overall, the Democrats have an edge, but it does not seem to be decisive.
9. Every eight years since 1993, the Republicans narrowly win the seat after a Democrat incumbent, or the Democrats win big after a Republican incumbent.  The polling here, of course, shows a close race. 

Therefore, putting all these variables into my, big-as-a-factory, unbelievably complicated, math-heavy, scientific model, which puts all other models to shame, which is scrupulously maintained by a recently updated and enhanced Robby the Robot, I predict that Jack Ciattarelli will win a narrow victory, very possibly by a plurality.  

Don’t be shocked; it’s not like I haven’t telegraphed this prediction earlier. 

READ MORE: Trump Is Doing What Biden Never Did—Investing in Virginia and New Jersey

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New York City Mayor

In New York City the race is between the Commie Radical Muslim (CRM) nepo baby Democrat, Zohran Mamdani, the crooked, sexual harassing, ex-Democrat governor, now independent, nepo baby Andrew Cuomo, and Curtis Sliwa, the eccentric Republican. Although in the perfect world, I would go with Sliwa, I really don’t believe he can win this year. If I were a voter there, I would hold my nose and vote for Cuomo.

The RCP average has CRM up 45.4 percent to 30.9 percent for the Crook, with Sliwa trailing at 17.4 percent. Atlas, a good pollster, has a shockingly lower CRM lead of just 41 percent  to 34 percent for the Crook, with Sliwa at a strong 24 percent .

We also know the following:

1. CRM is an opposition researcher's dream, having once mumbled something about “seizing the means of production,” showing persistent love for Muslim terrorists, and also consistently demonstrating a hatred of Jews, who are quite numerous in the City. But he is also young, good looking, and has a very friendly demeanor.
2. Despite CRM’s terrible record, those opposing a Democrat must use paid media to expose that Democrat. The MSM will be no help. Neither the Crook nor Sliwa has been able to do that particularly effectively.  
3. The Crook has run terrible races, both for the Democrat primary and now for the general. He is an angry old man, who is a lazy and overrated campaigner, who, despite needing conservative/Republican support, hasn’t bothered to give the GOP even verbal outreach.
4. Sliwa, as the Republican, likely does not have the support to win. The moderate voters who empowered Rudy and even Bloomberg are either dead or in Florida. And Sliwa, too, has not run a good race.
5. The City today is overwhelmingly Democrat, full of ‘Karens’ and foreign-born voters. The voters open to moderation have, as I said before, died or moved to Florida.
6. The City has a public financing system. In this race, CRM has been quicker to raise the dollars.
7. As has been reported by one of my colleagues on RedState, CRM’s campaign is facing explosive allegations that it benefited from tens of millions of dollars in donations funneled from George Soros-linked charities that may have violated tax laws. (The James Bond villain and his Mini-Me are back!)
8. The billionaires are of late pouring $40 million in ads against CRM and for the Crook.  
9. City voters have been flocking to the early vote, with totals five times higher than four years ago, with many boomers and Generation X among them. The bigger and older the turnout, the worse it is for CRM.

Therefore, putting all these variables together in my model, and taking into account my prior mistaken – but was it really? – prediction that CRM was not going to win the primary, I unfortunately expect CRM to win the general, likely with a plurality and a much-reduced margin (from some of the polls).

There is some good news, however.  CRM will certainly provide great election fodder for the GOP in the 2026 (and later) elections.  Also, the New York Governor can always remove CRM after he destroys Gotham, and Republican Congresswoman Elise Stefanik is about to run a very competitive campaign for Governor.  

Virginia Statewide Races

In Virginia, for Governor, Democrat former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger faces off against GOP Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears.

The RCP average has Spanberger up 50.7 percent to 43.1 percent, which is pretty much unchanged from last we checked.  Spanberger is over 50 percent , which is not a good sign.

We also know the following:

1. Abigail Spanberger is not a good candidate, but Winsome Earle-Sears has been criticized as well.
2. Virginia has become a Democrat leaning state thanks to the growth of the federal government.  However, state campaigns can be a different beast (see above).
3. The prior history of Virginia shows that the incumbent president’s party (almost) always loses the off-off year elections for governor, except in 2013 when the Democrats heavily outspent the GOP and gamed the race by propping up a conservative leaning independent.
4. For most of the campaign, the Democrats were heavily outspending the GOP. 
5. However, “(a)ccording to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact, the Earle-Sears campaign is currently set to vastly outspend Spanberger on the airwaves in the final stretch of the campaign… The Republican Governors Association’s Right Direction PAC also poured $4 million into Earle-Sears’s campaign on October 28.”
6. The final ad from Earle-Sears ties Spanberger to her Attorney General ticket mate, who has been rocked by scandals (see below).
7. I think it is a stretch to believe that ticket-mate scandals would substantially affect the governor’s race.  
8. If any state shows a backlash to the GOP for the government shutdown, federal government worker-heavy Virginia will be that state.  
9. Spanberger’s campaign has her campaigning in rural GOP heavy areas, which is usually a sign of confidence.

In the Lt. Governor’s race, surprisingly, the largely unfunded Republican, John Reid, has been only narrowly behind Democrat Ghazala Hashmi, another CRM.

In the Attorney General’s race, following the October Surprises against Democrat Jay Jones, incumbent Republican Attorney General Jason Miyares has established a RCP poll lead over Jones, 46.8 percent to 43.3 percent. Miyares is leading in all 10 polls in the average, although some by closer margins.

Therefore, putting all these variables together in my model, I unfortunately expect Spanberger to win the Governorship, by a solid margin. I do not expect, however, a double-digit margin. Ghazala Hashmi will more narrowly win the Lt. Gov. position. And Jason Miyares will narrowly win a second term as Attorney General.

Now go out and vote (if you are in these areas).

Editor’s Note: The Schumer Shutdown is here. Rather than put the American people first, Chuck Schumer and the radical Democrats forced a government shutdown for healthcare for illegals. They own this.

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